On Monday, which is 2026-08-03, look at the US market results first: SPY rose 1.42%, QQQ rose 1.76%. Over the past 5 trading days, SPY rose 2.51%, QQQ rose 2.63%, indicating that the broad market and tech stocks were relatively strong last week. The main themes to focus on today are not the indices themselves, but three pieces of news about housing, the power grid, and cross-border capital, all pointing to one thing: regions are filling the shortfall in "long-term supply", and the market cares more about who can break through the bottlenecks first.

First, housing.

In the US, a new housing bill has been enacted, described as one of the most important federal housing reforms in decades. The core idea is straightforward: build more homes, make financing easier, and push housing costs down. Put bluntly, when house prices and rents are high, it is often not because everyone suddenly has more money, but because there are not enough homes, approvals are too slow, and construction can’t keep up. Once policy starts to boost supply, the transmission chain is "more projects start → housing stock increases → rental and sales pressure eases → household disposable income is less eaten up by rent." This matters to markets beyond just real estate. Because housing is a major expenditure, if rents gradually stabilize it will also help inflation. In plain terms, if the stickiest part of inflation loosens, the pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep rates elevated going forward may also ease.

But on the housing front there is another piece of news reminding markets that the reality is not so easy. US foreclosure auctions in the 2026 second quarter increased 23% year-over-year, and have risen year-over-year for 6 consecutive quarters. That number is striking. Put simply, more homes are being forced into disposition because borrowers can’t make mortgage payments. On one hand, this will add more "relatively cheap" housing stock to the market, relieving some affordable housing shortages; on the other hand it also shows that under a high-rate environment some households and loan servicers are under pressure. Imagine policy is fixing the pipes, while rising foreclosures are a reminder that the water pressure has already started to crack old pipes. So the market sees not a pure positive but "long-term likely to improve, short-term still painful."

Now shift the lens to China. On August 3, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration released the "15th Five-Year" new power system construction plan, proposing that by 2030 non-fossil energy generation account for 50%, and to build a charging infrastructure network capable of supporting over 100 million electric vehicles. This news is easily dismissed as industry rhetoric, but it is actually very concrete. In plain terms, however many new energy vehicles are sold, if chargers, grid dispatch, and storage cannot keep up, you will end up stuck with "not enough stable power, not enough convenient charging." So this time it is not just about making cars, but strengthening infrastructure across the whole chain from generation, grid, storage to charging. The transmission chain is "top-level plan implemented → grid and charging investment gets direction → demand for equipment and construction rises → the new energy system can handle more electricity." This kind of news usually does not immediately translate into next-day earnings, but it will affect how mid-term capital chooses sectors, because the market will look for "who is really positioning for infrastructure."

At the same time, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange at its mid-year work exchange meeting proposed steadily expanding institutional opening in the foreign exchange field, and mentioned a new QDII investment quota of 53 hundred million USD. This "institutional opening", put simply, means not opening one-off loopholes but gradually smoothing rules for cross-border investment and financing, settlement, and quotas. It and the earlier housing and grid news can be seen together: whether building houses or power grids, long-term funding is needed; smoother cross-border capital flows can reduce financing frictions, making it easier for companies to get funding, convert currency, and invest in overseas equipment or projects. Add to that that second-hand home transactions in key cities in July rose 9.3% year-on-year, while new home transactions are bottoming and recovering, indicating the real estate sector at least has not continued to weaken unilaterally. Put simply, "the worst may be behind us, but the recovery is uneven." Second-hand homes heat up first because they are cheaper and trade faster; new homes are still finding a bottom, indicating developers' and residents' confidence needs time to recover.

So these pieces of news together are not simply "real estate improvement" or "new energy positive." More precisely: policy is becoming more focused on boosting supply, shoring up infrastructure, and opening funding channels; this will make the market differentiate who benefits from long-term construction and who is still bearing high-rate and profit pressures. Therefore, not all related assets on the tape will necessarily rally together; some directions may even run counter to the trend.

Next, look at several ETFs. First TLT, which is the US long-term Treasury ETF. TLT in the past 5 trading days, roughly a week, actually fell 1.86%. The ETF Radar model is biased negative for TLT over the next 1 to 3 months, and the signals are fairly consistent. Why this view? First, CFTC data shows the 30-year Treasury futures net short is -389,522 contracts. CFTC positions, put simply, are the net position after large players’ longs minus shorts in the futures market; such a large net short indicates big money is generally positioned for higher yields and pressure on bonds. Second, since 2026-07-28, TLT has had actual net redemption outflows of -523 million USD, roughly equal to -1.26% AUM. AUM is the fund’s assets under management; net outflows mean real money is leaving. Third, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.75%, and the term premium is about 0.84%. Term premium, put simply, means the longer people lend money the more compensation they demand. When that compensation is high it is usually unfriendly for long-duration bonds. Although today’s main themes mention housing supply reform which in theory helps curb housing inflation in the long run, that is a slow-moving variable; TLT faces the present pressure of "rates staying higher for longer," so this point is somewhat at odds with today’s news. News points to long-term repair, the model is cautious in the mid-term—this divergence itself is a signal.

Second, UUP, which is a dollar-related ETF. UUP actually fell 1.50% in the past 5 trading days. Looking ahead, the ETF Radar model is biased positive for UUP over the next 1 to 3 months, and the signals are fairly consistent. To be honest, this theme does not have a direct relation to today’s housing and grid story; it is an independent systemic mid-term stance. Three quantitative readings support it. First, the US 2-year Treasury yield is 4.28%, the 10-year is 4.75%. Put simply, US rates remain at high levels, so dollar assets still carry a ‘‘deposit interest’’ feel. Second, the market-implied federal funds rate path is about 3.705%. The implied path, put simply, is where futures markets expect policy rates to land. This level is not low, indicating the market is not fully pricing large rate cuts. Third, FINRA shows UUP short interest at 5,170,041 shares, a big increase of 279.2% from the previous period, with days-to-cover at 2.35. Short interest is the bet-on-downside positions; days-to-cover can be understood as how many days of volume it would take for shorts to cover. These figures being elevated mean if the dollar strengthens, short covering could amplify moves. Note that UUP has fallen recently while the model is positive, which means the model is looking at the next 1 to 3 months and the signal has not yet been realized.

Third, VDE, which is a US energy ETF. VDE rose 0.82% in the past 5 trading days. The ETF Radar model is biased positive for VDE over the next 1 to 3 months, and the signals are fairly consistent. This is also independent of today’s main themes and represents a system-level mid-term view. The key quantitative evidence is that CFTC speculative net long positions are about 63,979 contracts. Net long, put simply, means positions betting on higher oil prices exceed those betting on lower prices. Second, the oil futures curve is clearly in backwardation: front-month 84.67, 12 months out 70.27, slope 20.492%. Backwardation, put simply, means near-term oil is more expensive, indicating tighter spot conditions now. Third, VDE delivered cumulative excess return of +8.89% relative to SPY in this theme window. Excess return, put simply, means it outperformed the broad market by 8.89%. However, note that on Monday VDE fell 1.25% in one day, indicating the short-term market is digesting prior gains and it is not a straight-line up.

Fourth, FXI, which is the China large-cap ETF. FXI rose 3.34% in the past 5 trading days. For the outlook, the model is still biased positive for the next 1 to 3 months, but the signal is moderate. This one has a real transmission from today’s headlines on China’s FX opening and real estate repair. Smoother cross-border capital rules usually help external capital flows and hedging efficiency; if the property market steadies first, that is also supportive for market risk appetite. Quantitatively, FXI has accumulated a 9.49% gain in the related window, with excess return versus EEM of +18.63%. Put simply, it has outperformed the emerging market index by 18.63%. On the other hand, FXI short interest rose 18.7%, with shorted shares at 70,947,813, showing the market is not unanimously bullish. In other words, prices have run ahead somewhat while the data remain mixed, so we can only say mildly positive, but it warrants monitoring.

Putting the news and ETFs together today, the picture is clear: housing, the grid, and cross-border capital are all about plugging long-term supply gaps; while trades in bonds, the dollar, and energy are more driven by mid-term rates, capital flows, and geopolitical factors. News is changing, the system stance looks at the mid-term, and the two sometimes align and sometimes diverge—don’t conflate them into one thing.

Reminder again: the above are the system quantitative model’s directional forecasts for the general market and do not constitute personal investment advice; consult a licensed investment advisor before investing.