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Briefings

Morning macro briefings generated every trading day, plus weekly rates/risk reports and special reports. The last 30 days come first; older reports are archived by month.

⚠ Important Disclaimer

This program provides general macro-market quantitative analysis and educational discussion for a general audience, not for any specific individual. The ETF directional judgments are quantitative model predictions of general market trends and do NOT constitute investment advice, an offer, solicitation, or personalized recommendation under the Ontario Securities Act or the securities laws of any other jurisdiction. Such judgments do not consider any viewer's personal risk tolerance, financial situation, investment objectives, or tax circumstances.

The system's quantitative judgments may contain errors, biases, or limitations; model outputs are not absolutely accurate. The market includes many factors the system cannot capture or predict. Any decision based on system output is made at the decision-maker's own risk.

Viewers should independently assess and judge risk based on their own financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and understanding of the markets and instruments discussed. Before any investment decision, please consult an investment advisor licensed in your jurisdiction. Investing carries risk; past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Daily Briefing 2026-10-22 · 2308 chars
Oil prices surge after attack on Saudi Arabia; interest rates and housing market under pressure
On Thursday morning, a hit Saudi Arabia, pushing Brent to around $111 and WTI close to $99. The U.S. has withdrawn some embassy personnel, with passage through the Hormuz Strait at just 1.3%, adding supply-side tension that elevates inflation expectations and pushes the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.13%. Mortgage applications for home purchases have declined for seven consecutive weeks, and credit spreads have widened to 3.33%. BNO (tracking Brent) has shown recent strength; ETF Radar is positive on a 1-3 month outlook. TLT (long-term U.S. Treasury) saw some gains in the short term but the model remains negative on a 1-3 month outlook. QQQ has been weak over the past five days and the model also leans negative. SPY gained 0.53% on Wednesday, with Thursday's market reaction serving as a test point; the attitude is one of watchful waiting.
Daily Briefing 2026-10-21 · 2954 chars
UK inflation and borrowing push up interest rates; tech stocks under pressure
UK inflation rose to 3.5% in September and borrowing of £24.5 billion also exceeded expectations, driving up UK bonds and globally influencing US bonds (10-year yield at 5.12%, 30-year yield at 5.42%), becoming a key driver for lowering growth stock valuations. QQQ fell by 3.49% over the past five days, with ETF Radar indicating a negative outlook (bearish) for 1-3 months; SMH dropped by 7.10%, and its model has turned positive (bullish); SOXX declined by 8.07%, with its model currently neutral (cautious); TLT rose by 2.25% over the past five days, but its outlook for 1-3 months remains negative (bearish). Additionally, CoreWeave's debt concerns have intensified semiconductor and AI-related market volatility; biotech (XBI/IBB) saw a recovery on the day but has not yet reversed the 20-day decline.
Risk Weekly 2026-10-21 · 1461 chars
Interest-rate-driven mild risk aversion, credit spreads under pressure
Conclusion: The current environment remains a rate-driven, mild risk-off stance and has not yet constituted a systemic crisis; credit widening and the lack of Treasury safe-haven demand coexist, and long-end government bonds saw a modest reflow this week but it is not sufficient to change the overall assessment. Supporting evidence includes systemic stress at only 25.2/100, high-yield bond spreads rising to 3.29%, and long-end government bonds this week only declining 9 basis points. The report also advises that contrarian longs should lower their confidence and be alert to escalation signals such as continued widening of credit spreads and sustained buying of government bonds.
Daily Briefing 2026-10-20 · 2564 chars
Three-way summit may ease restrictions on Russian oil, but the spot market is tighter.
Putin proposed holding a trilateral summit next month with Trump and Xi; if it happens it could lead to loosened sanctions on Russia and increased Russian crude supply, but the battlefield has not stopped: Ukraine launched over 1000 drones and attacked oil piers and depots in St. Petersburg, causing Brent spot to trade at a premium of about 23 dollars to the five-day average of near-month futures, and Strait of Hormuz transits are only 1.3% of pre-war levels, making short-term physical tightness more important. On ETFs: BNO bullish (model leans positive, the past month’s gains and the spot premium provide support); SMH neutral/watch (model has turned neutral-to-bullish, the company is adding AI compute and there are inflows but implied volatility is high); SOXX bearish (model leans negative); UUP bullish (model leans positive, large inflows and the US-Canada yield spread provide support).
Daily Briefing 2026-10-19 · 3114 chars
A tug-of-war between easing sanctions on Russia and attacks on oil facilities
U.S. stocks fell on Friday, led by technology (SPY -1.11%, QQQ -2.50%), and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was about 5.09%; a new market variable is Trump’s large-scale waivers of sanctions on Russia and Ukraine’s Sunday attack with over a thousand drones on Russian oil export terminals, creating a tug-of-war on the supply side between “policy easing” and “facilities being bombed.” Brent spot is trading at approximately a $23 premium to the 5-day average of near-month futures, and passage through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly cut off. The ETFs singled out for attention in the article are BNO (model slightly positive, bullish, supported by the Brent spot premium and near-month tightness), XLE (beneficiary, bullish, energy strengthened by supply risk), IEF (model slightly negative, bearish, due to a widening speculative net short in U.S. Treasuries and net redemption pressure), and SOXX (model slightly negative, bearish, due to outflows and rising option hedging costs).
Risk Weekly 2026-10-18 · 1523 chars
Risk is building: VIX up nearly 35% in a week, low-rated borrowers pay more
Conclusion: This is currently not a systemic crisis, but risk aversion driven by interest rates and inflation, manifested as credit divergence and elevated short-term volatility; this week Treasuries have shown initial signs of safe-haven demand worth monitoring. Evidence: high-yield bond spreads widened 53bp over the past month, VIX spot 19.99, 10-year U.S. Treasury yield 5.09%.
Rates Weekly 2026-10-18 · 3185 chars
Inflation is still accelerating: producer prices 6.3%, consumer prices 3.7%
Conclusion: In September, a rebound in US CPI and the resulting rise in Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations pushed US short- and medium-term Treasury yields upward and caused the US-Canada yield spread to widen significantly, while Canadian yields across maturities were directionally unpredictable. Evidence includes: September CPI year-over-year rose to 3.7%, the US 2-year yield was 4.74%, and the US-Canada 2-year spread has widened to about 154 basis points. The system judges the US 2-, 5-, and 10-year signals as biased upward but with hit rates only slightly above the base rate; the 30-year and Canadian maturities are labeled as ≈ random walk, so this system cannot give a directional conclusion on whether subsequent spreads will continue to widen or converge.
Special Report 2026-10-18 · 8011 chars
The Siphoning Effect of Capital: One Year Later, Is Your Job Still Safe?
The stock market gains in the United States over the past year have been concentrated in three sectors: energy, semiconductors related to artificial intelligence, and healthcare. The breadth of this increase has narrowed in the last half-year. In the same year, corporate borrowing costs split into two worlds: those with the best credit saw an increase of 1.06 percentage points, while those with the weakest credit saw an increase of 5.82 percentage points. The risk-free real interest rate rose by approximately 101 basis points, being absorbed at the top and amplified five times more at the bottom. Employment data appear stable but are actually in a state of neither hiring nor firing, with average unemployment duration reaching 24.8 weeks. If this concentration of capital continues, layoffs could be one possible path forward.
Daily Briefing 2026-10-17 · 3307 chars
Rising interest rates pressure tech; tight oil supplies benefit energy
This week's main theme is rising interest rates weighing on technology stocks, while tight oil supply supports energy and resources. Key drivers are the U.S. 10-year yield rising to 5.09%, September PPI month-on-month +1.3% and a marked spot crude premium (WTI near-month about $101.4 vs 12-month about $82.85), alongside Russia-Ukraine attacks and Houthi disruptions to shipping that have exacerbated supply tightness. Key ETFs and stances: QQQ (Nasdaq 100) assessed as mixed/neutral, on the sidelines; SOXX (Semiconductors) mixed/neutral, on the sidelines; VDE (Energy equities) slightly positive, bullish; USO (Crude oil) slightly positive, bullish; VGIT (intermediate Treasuries) slightly negative, bearish.
Special Report 2026-10-17 · 2581 chars Chinese only
Reading stock moves through the yield curve
The US Treasury curve has shifted up over the past year, but the pressure on stocks differs several-fold by sector: growth stocks, real estate and small caps are the most sensitive, staples and financials the least, and energy moves the other way.
Daily Briefing 2026-10-16 · 2748 chars
Producer prices surge 6.3% Long-term interest rates pull back
September PPI year-on-year rose to 6.3% and month-on-month came in much higher than expected, retail sales and core CPI were likewise hot, with upstream energy and service costs pushing inflation upward; but long-term yields actually fell (10-year 5.10%, 30-year 5.43%), the short end increased bets on rate hikes while the long end lowered its pricing of forward growth and inflation. Attacks in the Gulf and the Black Sea continued, raising energy and food supply risks; the ETF Radar model is negative (bearish) on TLT, positive (bullish) on WEAT, and negative (bearish) on FXI.
Daily Briefing 2026-10-15 · 2641 chars
Rising inflation is pressuring valuations, AI revenue remains strong
US equities declined on Wednesday, with SPY down 1.08% and QQQ down 1.97%, primarily due to the September CPI rising to 3.7% year-over-year (driven by fuel, Brent around $107) which pushed up interest rates (10-year at about 5.19%). High valuation tech stocks and precious metals were under pressure; however, AI revenue remained strong, with Anthropic reporting a 45% increase in September to $1.68 billion, indicating that inflation and growth are pulling on the market. Key ETFs and views: SOXX (down 4.50% for the day, model slightly positive for 1-3 months but under pressure in the short term) is bullish (1-3 months); QQQ (down 3.80% over the past five days, with mixed long-short positions according to the model) is on hold; SLV (down 6.69% and 6.11% for the day over the past five days, model slightly negative) is bearish; SPY (down 1.08%) is on hold.
Daily Briefing 2026-10-14 · 2647 chars
Gulf conflict escalates, oil prices rise, supply chains under pressure
Gulf conflict has evolved from one-sided attacks into mutual strikes: Saudi Aramco's eastern office building was attacked, the Saudi-led coalition struck fuel depots in Yemen and intercepted missiles/unmanned aerial vehicles over Riyadh, WTI is at $95.25 (+1.18%), Brent is at $106.96 (+1.20%), Red Sea Mandeb Strait tanker transits fell to an average of 9 vessels per day (about 76% of pre-war normal), Brent spot-to-futures near 5-day average spread widened to $21.6/barrel, the 10-year US Treasury yield remains at 5.21%. ETF perspective: BNO (Brent) model leans positive, bullish in the short-to-medium term; HYG (high-yield bonds) model leans negative, bearish; SIL (silver mining) model leans negative, bearish.
Daily Briefing 2026-10-13 · 2904 chars
AI Supports Growth, War and Debt Under Pressure
The IMF warned about AI investment, war, and debt together: AI is still supporting global growth, but a pullback in semiconductors (SOXX down 2.60%, CHPS down 2.48%), the Russo-Ukrainian "energy ceasefire" being in name only and the attack on Riyadh airport escalating the conflict, the Brent spot premium and the rise in BNO/USO reflect tightness in physical supply, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rising to 5.24% highlights debt pressure. On ETFs, ETF Radar is negative on QQQ, MCHI, and VGIT——QQQ bearish (fund outflows and rising net shorts), MCHI bearish (regulatory pressure and tightening funding), VGIT bearish (rising rates and net outflows); the overall signal is that AI remains a pillar but war and debt constitute ongoing downside risks.
Daily Briefing 2026-10-12 · 2762 chars
Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflict disruptions to energy supply still uncertain
Over the weekend, two energy stories were the main thread: Riyadh airport was attacked twice starting Saturday (multiple casualties, the Houthis were blamed), combined with Trump proposing to import diesel from Russia and claiming that Russia and Ukraine had reached an "energy ceasefire" but with no details and attacks still ongoing, making it harder to judge when Gulf supplies will resume; on Friday SPY+0.60%, QQQ+0.49% had not yet priced in these risks, and energy stocks XOP fell 1.02% that day. ETF Radar gives directional judgments: FXI biased positive (bullish), supported by the central bank’s cut to PSL and the National Development and Reform Commission’s countercyclical statements; EEM biased negative (bearish), due to proposed 20% levy-like regulation, the US 10-year Treasury yield rising to 5.24% and increased demand for shorting/insurance; BKLN biased negative (bearish), with recent net redemptions and rising global rates plus widening high-yield spreads creating medium-term selling pressure.
Risk Weekly 2026-10-11 · 1501 chars
Idiosyncratic risks, interest rates and the US dollar have led to valuation compression
Conclusion: Currently this does not constitute a systemic crisis; market pressure mainly stems from rising nominal interest rates and a stronger dollar leading to valuation compression, and credit widening is concentrated in high yield rather than having spread to investment grade. The report cites systemic stress 18.0/100, HY OAS at 3.15% and the 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.24% as evidence, noting that the VIX term structure and short-end financing do not show crisis-like safe-haven behavior. Therefore it recommends reducing conviction and putting guardrails on long-duration Treasuries, long high-yield positions and dollar-sensitive assets, while not requiring a comprehensive contraction of risk budgets; however, attention is needed on whether spreads will diffuse to IG, the trajectory of the 10-year yield, and changes in the VIX term structure.
Rates Weekly 2026-10-11 · 2934 chars
U.S. short- and medium-term interest rates rise; long-end risks are hard to predict
Conclusion: U.S. short- and mid-term yields are biased toward continuing to rise over the next three weeks; the 10-year moves in the same direction but with weaker conviction; the U.S. 30-year and all Canadian maturities are labeled as approximate random walks and unpredictable; within the current upward channel, long-duration price losses can easily exceed carry returns, so attention should be paid to auction, fiscal and inflation event risks. Supporting data are a 2-year momentum hit rate of 56.2%, 5-year 54.0% and 10-year 52.7%.
Daily Briefing 2026-10-10 · 3229 chars
Elevated long-end yields put banks and long-term bonds under pressure
This week’s markets were driven by high long-term interest rates affecting the bond market and banks, unexpected UK borrowing costs suppressing the pound and stocks, and pharmaceutical patent expirations and Medicare price pressures leading to fund outflows. In ETFs: Intermediate US Treasury ETF (IEF) was deemed negative (bearish), Long US Treasury (TLT) negative (bearish), Regional Bank ETF (KRE) negative (bearish), UK equities (EWU) negative (bearish), and Pharmaceutical ETF (XPH) negative (bearish); key drivers include a 10-year US yield of approximately 5.22%, net short positions in 10-year Treasury futures of about 213,900 contracts, French bond sales, UK current public borrowing exceeding OBR expectations leading to mortgage rates rising to around 6%, and XPH experiencing net redemptions of approximately $60 million (13.31%) since September 30th, with a 21.47% outflow over the past 30 days.
Daily Briefing 2026-10-09 · 2392 chars
Oil up, chips down, central banks diverge, interest rates under pressure
US equities saw a slight pullback on Thursday with significant intra-market divergence: the energy sector (XLE, XOP, BNO, USO) surged by about 2.5-3%, driven by comments from Vitol CEO that strategic oil inventories are depleted and Shell's record refining profits indicating thinner buffers in the physical market; semiconductor ETFs (SOXX, SMH, CQQQ) fell more than 3% on a single day, resembling a retracement following previous gains. Bank of England Governor Bailey warned that interest rates may rise even if the economy weakens, with eurozone inflation at 3.8% in September and US non-farm payrolls adding only 29,000 jobs in September; New York Fed President Williams' dovish stance led to divergent central bank policies. ETF Radar views EWU negatively (bearish), TLT negatively (bearish), and MCHI positively (bullish).
Special Report 2026-10-09 · 7663 chars
Seven months into the oil shock, a stagflation risk hidden by the AI rally
The Fed will put inflation ahead of jobs, but this inflation comes from the oil supply. Gasoline demand barely responds to price, so rate hikes can cut oil use only by cutting incomes, and the cost lands on the economy. If oil stays high until next spring, headline inflation, core inflation and unemployment would meet the conditions for mild stagflation one after another. Markets are broadly optimistic and have not priced this chain, while the oil supply problem shows no sign of a quick fix. The piece ends with the portfolio risks hidden by the AI rally and general ways to reduce them.
Daily Briefing 2026-10-08 · 2489 chars
U.S. Treasury yield spillover puts junk bonds and U.K. public finances under pressure
US long-term interest rates remain high and are starting to spill over: 10-year/30-year yields at around 5.27%/5.46%, with high-yield credit spreads widening to 3.03% in the past 20 days, leading to tighter financing conditions for junk bonds and UK borrowing costs reaching a 28-year high, with public borrowing exceeding expectations. The September non-farm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs, exacerbating concerns about repayment capacity. China’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.4003 trillion in September, down by $38.1 billion from August, and traders say Western oil inventories are depleted, pushing up inflationary pressures due to energy shortages. In ETFs, the model forecasts a bearish outlook for EWU, KRE, and QQQ over the next 1-3 months.
Daily Briefing 2026-10-07 · 2501 chars
Fighting closes in on the Red Sea, oil prices bet on retreat
The main thread of the article is: The Yemen conflict has spread to Mukha and the Strait of Mandeb, with Saudi increasing risks to shipping and oil supply. However, CFTC data shows that speculative net long positions in crude oil have fallen from 111,731 contracts to 79,592, while OPEC+ has maintained its production levels. European Central Bank Executive Board member Lane has publicly outlined scenarios to address the policy dilemma facing the eurozone amid a September inflation rate of 3.8% and fiscal constraints. The US non-farm payrolls for September added only 29,000 jobs, with yields on 30-year Treasuries at around 5.46%, highlighting pressures on long-term interest rates and valuations. Key ETFs and stance: XLU (Model 1-3 months biased negative – bearish), EWJ (biased negative – bearish), XPH (biased negative – bearish), IWM (slightly bearish – bearish); also watch for short-term retracement signals in OIH.
Daily Briefing 2026-10-06 · 2919 chars
Middle East conflict pushes up inflation, elevated long-term interest rates put pressure on real estate
Middle East tensions resurface (oil tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz on October 4, Yemen spillage, and OPEC+ maintaining production levels) have pushed oil prices higher and driven Eurozone September inflation to 3.8%, increasing central bank tightening expectations and thereby putting pressure on global long-term interest rates and real estate. US 10-year/30-year Treasury yields are at approximately 5.28%/5.46%, with MOVE at 113.6, and September non-farm payrolls adding only 2.9 thousand jobs. The office CMBS default rate has risen to 12.2%. In ETFs: VNQ is bearish (REITs under pressure, recent decline); AGG is bearish (bonds pressured by rising long-term interest rates); UUP is bullish (supported by yield curve differentials but with short-term overcrowding concerns); IWM is bearish (small caps under pressure from interest rates and futures shorts).
Daily Briefing 2026-10-05 · 2738 chars
Rising oil prices and elevated interest rates put pressure on the bond market
Over the weekend, another attack on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and reciprocal strikes between Yemen and Saudi Arabia have heightened geopolitical risks and increased concerns about oil supply. Combined with the U.S. adding only 29,000 jobs in September (reported Friday) and a rising unemployment rate, while long-term interest rates remain elevated (10-year around 5.24%, term premium about 1.02 percentage points, MOVE about 107), this has left inflation and rate-cut expectations entangled. ETF Radar accordingly gives the following medium-term stance: BNO slightly positive (bullish), AGG slightly negative (bearish), BNDX slightly negative (bearish), UUP slightly positive (bullish); the signal strengths are not at full scale, and there are risks of crowded positioning and short-term rebounds.
Rates Weekly 2026-10-04 · 3124 chars
Selloff in the long-end bond market exacerbates elevated U.S. interest rates and tail risk.
Conclusion: Global long-end bond selling has deepened, U.S. yields are at extreme highs in recent years, momentum at the short- and mid-ends slightly favors upside but has limited statistical advantage, there is no reliable directional view for the 30-year and for Canadian maturities, carry is difficult to offset price losses when yields rise, and extreme z-scores imply simultaneous two-sided tail risks of mean reversion and trend continuation. Supporting evidence includes the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield at 5.61% rising 14bp this week, the 2-year momentum hit rate of 56.2% (a relative base-rate advantage of about 5.7 percentage points), and the 10-year z-score of about 3.01.
Risk Weekly 2026-10-04 · 1575 chars
Rising interest rates have put the credit side under pressure, causing high-yield spreads to widen.
Conclusion: The market is currently in a risk-off phase where rising interest rates are transmitting to the credit side, representing valuation pressure driven by rates and inflation rather than a systemic crisis. The rules engine's systemic stress is only 23.6/100, at a low level; high-yield bond spreads have risen to 3.24%, widening significantly recently; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed to 5.28%, indicating Treasuries are not being bought up and duration assets are not serving as a safe haven, with risks mainly manifesting as rising funding costs and stress on lower-rated credit.
Daily Briefing 2026-10-03 · 3598 chars
Rising oil prices and interest rates put long-term bonds and gold under pressure
Main theme this week: The US-Iran conflict and sanctions on Russia have pushed up oil prices, with geopolitical risk and risk-off sentiment running in parallel, the 10-year yield rose to about 5.24%, MOVE rose to 108, weak nonfarm payrolls have caused rate-cut expectations and marginal liquidity effects to intertwine, the high-yield spread is 3.24% and widened by 44bp, driving long-end yields and credit volatility to become key drivers. On ETFs, BNDX and TLH models turned negative (bearish), GLD negative (bearish), BNO and VDE newly included as positive (bullish), and QQQ/VTI shifted from positive to negative (bearish); there is a divergence between price and positioning, so be wary of funding/flow risks.
Daily Briefing 2026-10-02 · 2699 chars
Middle East tensions push oil prices higher; bond yields hit new highs, bond market under pressure
Middle East tensions (US military deploying about 9000 personnel, the Third Carrier Strike Group, and sending additional Patriot missiles to Saudi Arabia and Qatar) pushed up oil prices (BNO Thursday +4.76%), heightened inflation worries and transmitted to the bond market, causing the US 10-year yield to rise to 5.29% (a multi-year high), MOVE to rise to 108.13, and 30-year mortgage rates to break through 7%; as a result, the market saw increased demand for the dollar and for safe havens while bond market volatility widened. ETF Radar gives a mixed assessment: BNO (positive), UUP (positive), BNDX (negative), BKLN (negative), and the model believes oil and the dollar are mid-term positive, while international bonds and floating-rate loans are under pressure and exhibit significant short-term volatility.
Daily Briefing 2026-10-01 · 2939 chars
U.S. Economy Running Hot, Rate Cuts Unlikely; Bond and Housing Markets Under Pressure
U.S. Q2 GDP rose to 2.2%, PCE inflation remains stubborn, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to about 5.26%, and Kevin Warsh’s first meeting statement was hawkish, causing market expectations to shift from "rate-cut pause" to "possibly no rate-cut option"; the conclusion is that the U.S. economy is running hot, rate cuts are unlikely, long-end yields are rising and transmitting to real estate and the credit side. ETF-wise: VNQ (REITs) medium-term bearish (down 6.93% over the past month, model biased negative); UUP (USD) favorable (net inflows over the past 5 days, yield advantage); BNDX (international bonds) bearish; BKLN (floating-rate loans) bearish; BNO (Brent) relatively favorable but with limited linkage to the rates theme.
Daily Briefing 2026-09-30 · 3037 chars
Inflation is pushing up interest rates, putting the housing market under pressure.
The main newsline is that Australia’s core inflation remains above target, pushing U.S. Treasury yields up to about 5.18% on the 10-year, the MOVE index rose to 101.82, and rising borrowing costs have already transmitted to the housing market and the credit side (developers halting construction, VNQ down 3.30% in the past 5 days); uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions on Russia maintain upward pressure on oil prices, while Chinese brokerages' bond issuance of 1.68 trillion yuan this year demonstrates global rates are not moving in sync. ETF Radar gives positions: BNDX bearish, VNQ bearish, BKLN bearish, BNO bullish, SMH bullish.
Daily Briefing 2026-09-29 · 3101 chars
Oil prices and AI are driving up inflation and pushing interest rates higher, putting bonds and real estate under pressure.
Geopolitical risks in oil prices, combined with the large-scale data center construction driven by AI (estimated at $10.3 trillion), have made inflation difficult to subside and kept long-term interest rates high (10-year Treasury at around 5.18%), leading to a decline in US equities and a sharp drop in precious metals; BNO has risen about 17.2% recently. ETF highlights: IEF is bearish (with rising 10-year yields, CFTC net shorts, MOVE at 96, and high implied volatility from options); XLRE is bearish (30-year mortgage rates around 7.03%, net outflows of funds, and pressure on valuation); HYG is bearish (HY OAS at 2.93% with widening spreads, but short-term fluctuations due to net subscriptions); BNO is bullish (supported by the stalemate in the Hormuz Strait and sanctions against Russia, with CFTC speculative net longs).
Daily Briefing 2026-09-28 · 2827 chars
Geopolitical Conflict Drives Energy Prices Higher; Inflation and Interest Rates Under Pressure
The conflicts between Russia/Ukraine and the US/Iran are transmitting energy and shipping risks to inflation and interest rates: reports include steel mills not restarting, Ukrainian drone command, Russian requests for self-preservation, rerouting of freight in Dubai, and a decline in German consumer confidence, driving up transportation and insurance costs and adding risk premiums to oil prices. Related ETFs to watch: BNO bullish (CFTC crude oil net long +101,828, WTI near-month contango 21.464%, BNO down -1.52% over the past 5 days); IEF bearish (10-year yield at 5.11%, CFTC US Treasury net position -1,868,126, IEF down -0.88% over the past 5 days); IWM bearish (excess return vs SPY -7.46%, Russell net position -107,982, near-term net outflow $2.071 billion), and XLRE bearish (30-year mortgage at 7.03%, US Treasury yield at 5.11%, net redemption since 9/18 -$318 million, XLRE down -2.28% over the past 5 days).
Special Report 2026-09-28 · 4981 chars
Gold is not a haven in a hiking cycle
# Special Report: Hikes, Weak Treasuries, Haven Demand — and Why the System Turned Bearish on Gold **2026-09-28 · Macro Analysis** > ⚠️ This is a ma…
Risk Weekly 2026-09-27 · 1629 chars
Rising interest rates have compressed valuations, putting long-duration long positions under pressure.
Conclusion: The market is currently in a typical rate/inflation-driven risk-off, with pressure mainly manifesting as valuation compression and rising discount rates, and it has not yet evolved into credit-chain contraction or liquidity runs. The evidence is the simultaneous rise across the long and short ends of the Treasury curve——the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 5.17%, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield has reached 4.81%, but high-yield bond spreads are still only about 2.8%——indicating that bonds have not acted as a safe-haven buffer and credit risk has not been repriced. Therefore the current risk mainly stems from higher interest-rate levels’ discounting pressure on duration and high-valuation assets, rather than systemic credit or liquidity shocks, and protections for duration exposure and valuation-dependent long positions need to be strengthened.
Rates Weekly 2026-09-27 · 4526 chars
Upside favored for short- and medium-term U.S. Treasuries, while 30-year Treasuries and Canadian bonds follow a random walk.
Conclusion: Last week U.S. growth and inflation repricing drove global rates higher. Over the next three weeks the U.S. short- to mid-ends (2Y/5Y/10Y) still have a statistical upside advantage, while the U.S. 30Y and the full Canadian curve are labeled as random walks; carry can only serve as a static buffer and cannot substitute for directional judgment. Evidence includes US 2Y 4.87% (20-day +68bp), US 10Y 5.18% (z=3.17) and the U.S. Treasury 2s10s steepening to +31bp.
Daily Briefing 2026-09-26 · 4360 chars
Interest rates remain elevated; technology is recovering, while real estate credit is under pressure
The core signals this week are that the market is simultaneously pricing in 'rates staying higher for longer' and 'rapid internal divergence among risk assets': long-term rates remain elevated (10-year Treasury 5.11%, mortgage 7.03%), HY OAS 2.8%, MOVE 96, combined with US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical disturbances and UK gilt volatility, causing real estate and credit to be under pressure, energy and gold to be pulled by both geopolitical factors and rates, while tech and semiconductors are recovering supported by compute capital expenditures and DRAM supply-demand dynamics. Key ETFs: VNQ, XLRE, HYG are biased negative (bearish); QQQ, SOXX are biased positive (bullish).
Daily Briefing 2026-09-25 · 3082 chars
High interest rates weigh on valuations; a thaw in China-U.S. relations bolsters sentiment
Market Focus: Interest rates remain under high pressure, while there is a short-term easing in Sino-US tensions. ETFs to Watch: TLT (Bearish) – 10-year yield at 5.11%, net outflow of $1.711 billion since September 18, with high futures net shorts; VNQ (Bearish) – 30-year mortgage rate at 7.03%, new home sales driven by price cuts, supply still at 8.5 months, lagging SPY; UUP (Bullish) – 2-year yield at 4.71%, 10-year yield at 5.11% forming a dollar yield curve advantage, net inflow of $84 million since September 7; KWEB (Bearish) – RMB loans in August increased by only 0.06 trillion yuan, loan growth rate down to 4.9%, high proportion of government bond net financing, net outflow of $169 million over the past seven days. Key drivers include the sale of US Treasuries pushing up yields and hawkish comments from four Fed officials, while the extension of trade truce by Trump-Xi eases sentiment but political wrangling over tax incentives for data centers remains.
Special Report 2026-09-25 · 7953 chars
Building AI on borrowed money — a prisoner's dilemma
# Special Report: Building AI on Borrowed Money — a Prisoner's Dilemma **2026-09-25 · Macro Analysis** > ⚠️ This is a macro analysis, not a forecast…
Daily Briefing 2026-09-24 · 3038 chars
Oil prices rise, interest rates under pressure, China-US truce eases
The market is repricing between tight oil prices and a US-China trade truce: Trump's tough rhetoric on Iran at the United Nations raised Middle East risk, Brent oil BNO +4.23%, USO +3.30%, the 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.96%, mortgage rates hit a year-to-date high, and a diesel export ban supported by Trump intensified cost and inflation concerns; the extension of the US-China trade truce by the two leaders eased the confrontation but did not produce a full repair. ETF stance: TLT/IEF/IYR are biased bearish (long-term rates at high levels, net outflows and rising mortgage rates suppress duration and real estate), QQQ/SMH are biased bullish (the US-China truce benefits the tech chain, DRAM spot up about 20.9% and semiconductor fund flows and holdings have improved).
Daily Briefing 2026-09-23 · 2949 chars
Middle East risks have not dissipated and oil prices have retreated, tech is steady while long-term bonds are under pressure
Market: Middle Eastern geopolitical risks persist but oil prices have slightly declined in the short term; US-China high-level meeting signals 'competition with stability'; US plans to invest $5 billion in Gulf facilities, while Houthi threats keep maritime risks elevated. Key ETFs: QQQ (Bullish) - COT net position narrows from -31,872 to -6,387, OI rises to 325,784, with low implied volatility; BNO (Cautious) - CFTC net long +106,279, near-month backwardation but down 8.89% in the past five days, oil prices at a two-week low; VNQ (Bearish) - policy rate at 4.0%, initial jobless claims at 196k, outperformance vs SPY at -7.01%; IWM (Bearish) - CFTC net short -97,203, recent net redemptions of -1.7B, down 3.61% over the past 20 days.
Daily Briefing 2026-09-22 · 3218 chars
U.S. tech stocks rebound but interest rates and geopolitical risks constrain gains
On Monday U.S. stocks rebounded, led by technology, driven by two simultaneous themes: rising Red Sea shipping risk (Houthi attacks, G7 statements) and a U.S. economy that, while resilient, faces persistently high interest rates (initial jobless claims 196k, policy rate ≈4%); oil prices, however, briefly fell back to lows since September 9. Key ETFs: IWM (bearish, CFTC Russell net position -97,203, interest-rate environment pressures small caps), VNQ (bearish, put-call skew +5.93, rates suppress real estate), XLF (bullish, 10-year yield ≈4.94, 10y-2y spread about +0.25, favorable for banks), SMH (bullish, SMH net subscriptions +2,928M, DRAM spot +17%).

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