ETF RadarWWW.THEETFRADAR.COM 中文
US 10Y5.13%-6bp 5dUS 2Y4.81%-1bp 5d2s10s+32bpVIX18.15+1.69HY OAS3.33%+17bp 5dUSD Broad121.41-0.043M T-Bill4.08%-1bp 5dCRISIS SCORE26.2REGIMERate-driven risk-off
ETF Radar
Macro news → ETF direction calls · updated every trading day

Every day we sift a flood of headlines for the macro trends that are actually forming

Headlines about the same event are grouped into one narrative, checked against fund flows, futures positioning and macro data, then turned into a direction call on a specific ETF. Calls without enough evidence are not published.

ETFs covered98
Bullish / Bearish17 / 45
Narratives tracked30
See today’s signals →
Signal radar · today's direction calls ● bull  ● bear

Catch the upside. Quantify the risk

Credit spreads, volatility, rates and funding stress are tracked daily to classify the risk regime and check for early signs of a systemic crisis. ETFs trading near recent highs carry a separate chase-risk flag.

Systemic score26.2 /100
RegimeRate-driven risk-off
Open the risk gauges →
Systemic crisis score · 0 = no signs2026-10-22
0306010026.2/ 100calmcrisis
Score comes from: HY widening (20d), VIX z-score

Entries and exits get equal attention, and every call can be reviewed

Four simulated portfolios are marked daily against benchmarks. Exits follow stated rules: the evidence flips, the call turns neutral, the stop is hit, or the holding limit is reached. Every past call can be looked up.

Avg. hold26.8 d
Win rate44.3%
Max drawdown-3.7%
Open the scorecard →
Life of a position · exit rulesdays
min holdEvidence flips → exitCall turns neutral → exitLoss hits 30% → stop (any time)014306090Entryavg hold 26.8dmax 90d
Market state
Rates and inflation drive a risk-off
Bonds fall with stocks, so they are not a hedge
Rates risingYes
Inflation expectations upYes
Credit spreads wideningYes
Bonds as a havenNo
VIX curve invertedNo
Funding stressNo
Systemic crisisNo
Crisis score26.2 /100
Today’s briefing

What the market is trading today

All articles →
Daily briefing · Oct 22

Oil prices surge after attack on Saudi Arabia; interest rates and housing market under pressure

~6 min read

On Thursday morning, a hit Saudi Arabia, pushing Brent to around $111 and WTI close to $99. The U.S. has withdrawn some embassy personnel, with passage through the Hormuz Strait at just 1.3%, adding supply-side tension that elevates inflation expectations and pushes the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.13%. Mortgage applications for home purchases have declined for seven consecutive weeks, and credit spreads have widened…

▲BNO▼TLT▼QQQ
Read the briefing →
Risk Weekly · 10-21

Interest-rate-driven mild risk aversion, credit spreads under pressure

Conclusion: The current environment remains a rate-driven, mild risk-off stance and has not yet constituted a systemic crisis; credit widening and the…

Risk Weekly · 10-18

Risk is building: VIX up nearly 35% in a week, low-rated borrowers pay more

Conclusion: This is currently not a systemic crisis, but risk aversion driven by interest rates and inflation, manifested as credit divergence and ele…

Rates Weekly · 10-18

Inflation is still accelerating: producer prices 6.3%, consumer prices 3.7%

Conclusion: In September, a rebound in US CPI and the resulting rise in Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations pushed US short- and medium-term Treasu…

Special Report · 10-18

The Siphoning Effect of Capital: One Year Later, Is Your Job Still Safe?

The stock market gains in the United States over the past year have been concentrated in three sectors: energy, semiconductors related to artificial i…

Today’s signals

Today’s direction calls

1–3 month horizon · updated Oct 22

▲ Bullish6

UUPAT HIGHImplied Fed rate ~3.9% and high US nominal yields widen dollar carry and attract fundsSMHETF saw $1.376B net inflows since Oct 15 and DDR5 spot prices rose notablyXLEAT HIGHCFTC speculative net longs about 40,574 contracts and XLE had material net creation since Oct 14USOAT HIGHShipping disruptions tightened near-term oil, creating ~18% annualized near-month premium and net speculative long 40,574EWZDriven by: Russia-Ukraine War · 5-day flow +4.85% of AUM

▼ Bearish22

IEFAT HIGHFutures speculators hold about 2.21M net short 10y positions, adding shorts amid real-money outflowsTIPAT HIGHHigher-than-expected PPI and hawkish Fed futures (≈3.92) with 10yr real yield ≈2.77% raise discount ratesKREAT HIGHRising US Treasury yields and wider high-yield spreads pressure regional banks' valuations and asset qualityIWMSpeculators net short ~91.6k Russell2000 contracts; rising short‑mid yields pressure small‑cap valuationsQQQUK unemployment surprise raises odds of BoE delaying easing; 20-day US yields +16bp squeeze tech valuations

“At high” = price is near its 20-day high; entries deserve extra caution. All 41 core ETFs → · Narratives tracked →

Rates & risk

Treasury yields sit near one-year highs, and bonds are not hedging

Rates section →
US 2Y
4.81%
-1bp 5d
US 5Y
4.95%
-5bp 5d
US 10Y
5.13%
-6bp 5d
US 30Y
5.42%
-10bp 5d
US Treasury curve · now vs 60 days ago as of 10-21
4.04.55.05.52Y5Y10Y30Y4.814.955.135.4260d ago
TenorYield call vs prior
🇺🇸 US 2-yearNo callunchanged
🇺🇸 US 5-yearYield ↓ · price ↑unchanged
🇺🇸 US 10-yearYield ↑ · price ↓unchanged
🇺🇸 US 30-yearYield ↑ · price ↓unchanged
🇨🇦 Canada 2-year low evidenceYield ↑ · price ↓unchanged
🇨🇦 Canada 10-year low evidenceYield ↑ · price ↓unchanged
🇨🇦 Canada 30-year low evidenceNo callunchanged
Stress gauges · z-score vs 1-year mean
US 10Y 5.13%+2.10
US 2Y 4.81%+2.10
3M T-bill 4.08%+2.71
HY OAS 3.33%+2.48
IG OAS 0.87%+1.67
USD broad 121.41+1.45
10Y breakeven 2.37%+0.83
VIX 18.15+0.05

A z-score above +2 is extreme for the past year. Extreme today: US 10Y (+2.1), US 2Y (+2.1), 3M T-bill (+2.7), HY OAS (+2.5); the rest are in their normal range.

Risk regime →
Public scorecard

Four simulated portfolios, settled daily

Simulated, not live money; before costs except the futures portfolio

$5,000 per position across stocks, bonds and commodities.

Return
+4.39%
SPY +2.42%
Sharpe
1.13
99 trading days
Max drawdown
-3.91%
peak to trough
Win rate
44.3%
70 closed · 18 open
Details →
Simulated portfolioSPY total return
-6%-4%-2%+0%+2%+4%+6%JunJulAugSepOct+4.4%+2.4%

Full performance, every trade and methodology →

Look-ahead

Data to watch next

Eastern Time
Thu Oct 22 · 19:30

Japan Core Inflation Rate YoY

Inflation ex food and energy shows how sticky prices are.

Consensus 2.1% · Prior 1.7%

Fri Oct 23 · 09:45

US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

Tracks factory activity and new orders.

Consensus 55.4 · Prior 57

Fri Oct 23 · 09:45

US S&P Global Services PMI

Services prices are the main reason inflation is sticky.

Consensus 57.9 · Prior 58.7

Fri Oct 23 · 10:00

US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Includes consumer inflation expectations.

Consensus 46.3 · Prior 46.3

Tue Oct 27 · 08:30

US Core Durable Goods Orders MoM

Signals business investment appetite.

Consensus 0.6% · Prior 0.3%

Tue Oct 27 · 08:30

US Durable Goods Orders MoM

Signals business investment appetite.

Consensus 1.6% · Prior 0%

Method

How a call is made

Full methodology →
01

Read the news

Multilingual financial news is gathered daily and grouped into narratives.

02

Check the evidence

Narratives are checked against flows, futures positioning, options and macro data, not price alone.

03

Ask if it is priced in

A sound thesis the price already reflects is not chased. Late entries are flagged.

04

Settle daily

Every call enters a simulated portfolio, is marked at the close against a benchmark, and stays on file.

Updated every trading-day morning

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