EWZ iShares MSCI Brazil ETF
Bearish lean Confidence 0.50 Regime Mid-vol
Maintain a short-term to medium-term bearish stance on EWZ, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 374 (Latin America Economy): net redemptions of approximately -10.27% AUM over the past 30 days, and total outflows of about -$458M since 2026-08-14, forming a causal chain of persistent demand-side pressure. In contrast, the conflict/food-related arcs (arc 331, arc 430) currently lack quantifiable non-price evidence that could directly transmit events to Brazilian equities, thus failing to offset the impact of weak fund flows. Note that price_in has been marked as partially discounted or already factored in, and low VXEEM with declining short positions suggests a risk of short covering or a squeeze, hence maintaining a cautiously bearish stance with low confidence.
30-day verdict history
| Date | Direction | Confidence | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Bearish lean | 0.50 | Maintain a short-term to medium-term bearish stance on EWZ, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 374 (Latin America Economy): net redemptions of approximately -10.27% AUM over the past 30 days, and total outflows of about -$458M since 2026-08-14, forming a causal chain of persistent demand-side pressure. In contrast, the conflict/food-related arcs (arc 331, arc 430) currently lack quantifiable non-price evidence that could directly transmit events to Brazilian equities, thus failing to offset the impact of weak fund flows. Note that price_in has been marked as partially discounted or already factored in, and low VXEEM with declining short positions suggests a risk of short covering or a squeeze, hence maintaining a cautiously bearish stance with low confidence. |
| 2026-08-23 | Bearish lean | 0.55 | Maintain a short to medium-term bearish stance on EWZ, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 374 (latin_america_economy): net redemptions of approximately -10.27% AUM over the past 30 days, and net outflows of about -$458M (≈-5.82% AUM) since 2026-08-14, which constitute a causal chain of sustained pressure on demand, supporting the bearish stance. Note that price_in is marked in arc 374/430, indicating that some of the decline may already be reflected in prices, thus cautioning against overconfidence in position sizing. Additionally, two conflicting or grain-related arcs (arc 331, arc 430) currently lack quantifiable non-price evidence to directly transmit events to Brazilian equities, hence they remain contested and are insufficient to offset the negative funding signals provided by arc 374. |
| 2026-08-22 | Bearish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a short-term to medium-term bearish stance on EWZ, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 374 (latin_america_economy): net redemptions of approximately -10.27% AUM over the past 30 days, and about -$458M (≈-5.82% AUM) since August 14, 2026, indicating sustained pressure on demand. Arc 374 is an actionable and fresh signal (days_since_event=4, strengthen_streak=2, excess_sigma supports the bearish stance), thus maintaining a high level of confidence according to the rules; however, it should be noted that price_in has been flagged (price_in_excess flagged=True), indicating that some of the decline may already be reflected in the market, hence cautioning on confidence. The other two arcs (331, 430) are decaying or contested and lack a direct non-price chain to transmit conflicts or food events to Brazilian equities, but their snapshots also show continued net redemptions and low IV/low volatility, providing additional evidence of weak demand without altering the bearish conclusion. |
| 2026-08-21 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a short-term and medium-term bearish stance on EWZ, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 374 (latin_america_economy): recent net redemptions show a 30-day net redemption of approximately -10.27% AUM, with net outflows since 2026-08-14 amounting to approximately -$458M (≈-5.82% AUM). Arc 374 is an actionable and fresh signal (days_since_event≈3, strengthen_streak=2, excess_sigma supports the bearish stance), indicating pressure on demand and relative pricing for the ETF. Note that price_in has been flagged (price_in_excess flagged=True), meaning some of the decline may already be priced in, which should be considered with in confidence; additionally, arcs 331 and 430 are both attenuated or contested, lacking quantifiable supply-side transmission evidence to serve as effective counterarguments. Overall, maintain a bearish stance but acknowledge that part of the decline may have already been factored in, with short-term rebound risks heightened by low IV/low volatility conditions. |
| 2026-08-20 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a short to medium-term bearish stance on EWZ, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 374 (latin_america_economy): net redemptions of approximately -$593M (≈ -7.43% AUM) since 2026-08-11, and price_in_excess has been marked, indicating that demand-side dynamics and relative pricing are contributing to a substantive downward force on the ETF. The other two arcs (331, 430) are attenuated or contested, lacking quantifiable supply-side transmission evidence, which fails to offset the signal of outflows. Since arc 374 is a fresh actionable signal (days_since_event ≤ 7 and strengthen_streak = 2, with excess_sigma supporting the bearish stance), but price_in is True (part of the decline has already been factored in), confidence remains moderately high but somewhat constrained. |
| 2026-08-19 | Bearish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a short-term to medium-term lean negative stance on EWZ, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 374 (latin_america_economy): net redemptions of -$593M (≈ -7.43% AUM) since 2026-08-11, a cumulative net outflow of -10% AUM over 30 days, and price_in_excess = -8.38% (already marked as priced-in), indicating that demand-side and relative pricing dynamics are providing substantial downward pressure on the ETF. The other two arcs (331, 430) are attenuated or contested with no quantifiable supply-side transmission evidence to offset the non-price evidence of liquidity contraction. Given that the price_in mark indicates that some of the decline is already factored into the market, confidence remains moderate despite fresh actionable flow evidence. |
| 2026-08-18 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a short-term and medium-term lean negative stance on EWZ, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 374 (latin_america_economy): real net redemptions of -$593M since 2026-08-11 (≈-7.43% AUM), a cumulative net outflow of -10.0% AUM over 30 days, and price_in_excess = -8.38% (flagged=True), indicating that demand-side/ETF valuation pressure is real and quantifiable downward force. The other two arcs (331, 430) are currently attenuated or contested with no quantifiable supply-side transmission evidence; they are more price/news reactions than new fundamental causal chains, thus not offsetting the non-price evidence of downward liquidity. Be cautious as priced-in factors and low IV/VXEEM levels (low hedging costs) may limit further downside and increase short-term rebound probabilities, hence moderating confidence accordingly. |
| 2026-08-17 | Bearish lean | 0.56 | Maintain a short-term to medium-term bearish lean (lean_negative) on EWZ, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 374 (latin_america_economy): net redemptions of approximately -$424M (≈-5.19% AUM) since August 10, 2026, and a cumulative net outflow of -7.44% over 30 days indicate a medium-term downward momentum from demand-side withdrawal. It is noted that arc 374 also shows price_in_excess (-7.40%, flagged=True) along with low option IV and VXEEM levels, indicating that some of the decline has already been factored into the market, which I use to temper my confidence accordingly. The other two arcs (331, 430) are currently attenuated or contested, lacking quantifiable supply-side transmission evidence such as Black Sea exports or significant shifts in commodity COTs, thus not sufficient to reverse the bearish outlook. |
| 2026-08-16 | Bearish lean | 0.50 | Maintain a short-term to medium-term bearish lean (lean_negative) on EWZ, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 374 (latin_america_economy): net redemptions of approximately -$349M (≈-4.25% AUM) since 2026-08-07, with a 30-day cumulative outflow of -6.48%, indicating a shift in real capital and demand, which constitutes medium-term downward momentum. Note that arc 374 is also marked as price_in (part of the decline has already been factored into the market), and there are some signals within this arc that offset the bearish chain, thus limiting my confidence to medium; the other two arcs (arc 331, 430) are attenuated or contested and do not provide clear additional non-price transmission evidence sufficient to reverse the conclusion. |
| 2026-08-15 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a short-term to medium-term lean negative stance on EWZ, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 374 (latin_america_economy): net redemptions of approximately -$349M (≈-4.25% AUM) since 2026-08-07, a cumulative outflow of -6.48% over 30 days, and increased demand for option protection indicating a shift in real capital and risk appetite. Note that this negative momentum has already been partially factored into the market (arc 374 marked price_in_excess=True), and the other two arcs (arcs 331, 430) are attenuated or contested, providing no new clear non-price transmission evidence. Therefore, I maintain a lean negative stance but with confidence. Given the current market environment of low volatility/contango and the factored-in indicators, the confidence level is not elevated to high. |
| 2026-08-14 | Bearish lean | 0.56 | I maintain a short to medium-term bearish (lean_negative) stance on EWZ, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 374 (latin_america_economy): net redemptions of approximately -$349M (≈-4.25% AUM) since August 7, 2026, a cumulative outflow of -6.48% over 30 days, and an increase in put-call skew along with elevated IV, indicating real fund outflows and demand for downside protection. It should be noted that some of this downward momentum has already been factored in (arc 374 marked price_in_excess=True), while arcs 331 and 430 are attenuated or contested and lack clear non-price transmission evidence, thus I moderate my confidence to a low-medium level. |
| 2026-08-13 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | I will adjust my stance on EWZ from neutral to slightly bearish (1-3 months), primarily driven by the recent quantifiable non-price transmission evidence provided by arc 374 (latin_america_economy): net redemptions of approximately -$251M (≈-3.01% AUM) since August 6, 2026, with a cumulative outflow of -5.2% AUM over the past 30 days, and the event being recent (days_since_event≈1.9, strengthen_streak=1), indicating genuine capital outflows supporting the bearish direction. It is important to note that part of this downward path has already been priced in (arc 374 marked price_in_excess and option IV is low compared to VXEEM), and arcs 331 and 430 are both attenuated or contested, providing no alternative non-price evidence. Therefore, I have positioned myself slightly bearish but with reduced confidence to reflect the 'partially priced in' contradiction. |
| 2026-08-12 | Neutral | 0.12 | Maintain Neutral Stance: None of the three dominant arcs (331, 374, 430) provide quantifiable non-price evidence that can be directly transmitted to Brazilian listed company earnings or capital flows, thus no clear bullish or bearish judgment can be formed. Non-price evidence points to partial digestion and positioning/funding conditions not supporting a new direction: arc 331 is marked as price_in with extremely low historical option IV percentile, negative skew, and declining short positions; arc 430 shows significant fund outflows and bearish vol_flow (funding weakening); arc 374 has slightly cold US NFP but no identifiable pathway to directly impact Brazil's foreign reserves or company revenues. Therefore, maintain a neutral stance with low confidence (considering that several price/funding signals have already been factored in, hence not raising confidence to high). |
| 2026-08-11 | Neutral | 0.10 | Maintain a neutral stance. None of the three leading arcs (331, 374, 430) have quantifiable non-price evidence that directly links their events to the fundamental or capital flow aspects of EWZ component companies: arc 331 is marked as price_in (+4.06% outperformance relative to benchmark) and shows low option IV with bearish reversals, but there is no causal chain proven to alter Brazilian listed company earnings; arc 374's weak NFP and low volatility backdrop do not form a clear transmission for Brazilian assets; arc 430 has quantified information on US beef supply but exerts minimal impact on the top ten holdings of EWZ. Given that all arcs are in a decaying, non-confirmed state with price components already realized, continue to maintain a neutral stance with low confidence. |
| 2026-08-10 | Neutral | 0.12 | Maintain a neutral stance. All three leading arcs (arc 331 Russia-Ukraine, arc 374 Latin American economy, arc 430 global food crisis) are decaying and none provide quantifiable non-price evidence that directly impacts the fundamentals or positions of EWZ; arc 331 has been marked as price_in (part of the expected impact is already reflected in prices), which should lower confidence in establishing a new directional bias. Although there are non-price signals available for reference (such as low option IV percentile, reduced short positions, and negative US NFP surprises), these pieces of evidence either do not form a clear causal link to EWZ components or are insufficient in magnitude to support a clear bullish or bearish judgment; therefore, maintain a neutral stance with low confidence. |
| 2026-08-09 | Neutral | 0.16 | Maintain a neutral stance. Three main arcs (arc 331 Russia-Ukraine, arc 374 Latin American economy, arc 430 global food crisis) are all decaying and lack quantifiable non-price transmission evidence that can map events to the fundamentals or position changes of EWZ; among them, arc 331 has been marked with price_in, indicating that some expectations have already been realized in prices. The non-price signals for arc 374 (negative NFP surprises in the US, reduced short positions, and very low option IV percentiles) and the quantified impact of beef imports for arc 430 are of limited magnitude and do not support a clear directional position. |
| 2026-08-08 | Neutral | 0.18 | Shifted to neutral primarily because the non-price buffer evidence (arc 470 Mexico_Sheinbaum) that previously supported a bullish stance has been removed or closed, weakening the price-driven conclusion from the last assessment. The current three arcs (arcs 331, 374, and 430) are all decaying or contested, lacking quantifiable non-price transmission evidence to map events clearly onto EWZ's fundamentals or position changes. Therefore, a new directional judgment cannot be established with certainty. Additionally, the price_in for arc 331 has been marked (part of the expectations have already been reflected in prices), which should lower confidence in active positions. Considering all these factors, maintain a neutral stance with low confidence. |
| 2026-08-07 | Bullish lean | 0.28 | Maintain a mild bullish stance on EWZ. The primary non-price driver remains arc 470 (Mexico Sheinbaum): its quantitative evidence—continued short positions unwinding and sufficient systemic liquidity—constitutes a buffer against downside risks and supports the bullish position. Given that most arcs are decaying, and price_in for arc 331 is marked (the market has partially priced this in), along with other contested/receding arcs, confidence needs to be adjusted and caution should be exercised in positioning. Based on current evidence, no change in direction but not viewed as a new confirming buy signal. |
| 2026-08-06 | Bullish lean | 0.36 | Maintain a mild positive lean on EWZ. The primary non-price driver remains arc 470 (Mexico Sheinbaum), which quantifiable support comes from sustained short cover and ample systemic liquidity, providing a buffer against downside and supporting the positive stance; however, this arc is decaying and some expectations are already priced in, thus reducing confidence. Additionally, note that arc 331 has been flagged as price_in (partially priced into), and most other arcs are decaying or contested, indicating a lack of fresh quantifiable bullish catalysts. Therefore, maintain a mild position but with lower confidence than previously. |
| 2026-08-05 | Bullish lean | 0.52 | Maintain a mild positive lean on EWZ. The main non-price driver comes from arc 470: the market is highly likely (p=0.94) to re-elect Sheinbaum, and short positions have decreased in the short term, with systemic liquidity still ample; these are supportive non-price indicators. At the same time, arc 443 reports that implied volatility remains at a high level (IV rank 91%), which is seen as an independent contrarian signal within this system. However, caution is advised: arc 331 indicates that some narratives have already been priced in, and most supportive arcs are decaying or nascent. Therefore, maintain a mild position with confidence kept at a moderate to low level. |
| 2026-08-04 | Bullish lean | 0.45 | Maintain a mild positive lean on EWZ. The primary non-price driver remains arc 470 (Mexico Sheinbaum): the high probability (p=0.94) of market expectations for Sheinbaum is expected to reduce political risk jitters, and non-price quantitative evidence shows a decline in short interest (↓10.2%, days-to-cover=2.19), with systemic liquidity still relatively ample (Fed net liquidity ≈$5.8T), supporting emerging market risk assets. However, caution is advised: several narratives have been partially priced into the market (price_in marked on arcs 374, 331, and 443), and most of these arcs are in a decaying or nascent state. Therefore, confidence should be reduced, and positions should be built up gradually until fresh non-price evidence supports higher confidence. |
| 2026-08-03 | Bullish lean | 0.50 | Maintain a mild positive lean on EWZ. The primary non-price driver comes from arc 470: the market is predicting a high re-election/political continuity probability for Claudia Sheinbaum (p=0.94), which reduces political risk jitters, and short interest has notably decreased (short_interest ↓, days-to-cover=2.19). Additionally, systemic liquidity remains relatively ample, providing structural support to emerging market risk assets. Note that multiple narratives have already been partially priced in (arc 374/331/443 marked price_in), thus confidence is intentionally kept low and it is advised to build positions gradually rather than increasing exposure. |
| 2026-08-02 | Bullish lean | 0.52 | Maintain a mild positive bias on EWZ. Mainly based on arc 470 (Mexico Sheinbaum)'s non-price evidence: the high probability of Sheinbaum's re-election (p=0.94) is expected to reduce political tail risks, and declining short positions with ample systemic liquidity provide structural support for the bulls. However, it should be noted that most other arcs are in a decaying or nascent state, and several narratives have already been partially priced in by the market, thus lowering confidence and avoiding expanding position sizes. |
| 2026-08-01 | Bullish lean | 0.58 | Maintain a mild bullish stance on EWZ for the next 1-3 months, primarily supported by non-price evidence from arc 470 (Mexico Sheinbaum): market predictions of high probability of Sheinbaum’s re-election (p=0.94), significant reduction in short positions, and ample systemic liquidity that lowers political shock and downside amplification risks. Note that multiple arcs (id:374, 331, 443) have already been partially factored into the market price_in=True), with most other arcs in a decaying or nascent state. Therefore, adjust confidence to reflect the freshness of information and realized price windows. This is a bullish but not highly certain judgment; it is recommended to build positions gradually and use non-price signals from arc 470 as the primary tracking indicator. |
| 2026-07-31 | Bullish lean | 0.65 | Maintain a mild bullish stance on EWZ: the driver comes from arc 470 (Mexico Sheinbaum), with clear non-price evidence—predicting a high probability of Sheinbaum’s re-election (p=0.94), significant reduction in short positions, and continued expansionary systemic liquidity, which lowers the risk of sudden political changes and amplified downside risks. Note that other arcs are decaying or contested and have been partially reflected in prices (price_in labeled as True for arcs such as id:374/331/443), so a conservative, phased entry is recommended with adjustments made to already priced-in gains. Given that arc 470 is a confirmatory signal within ≤7 days and its excess_sigma aligns with the bullish direction, the composite confidence level remains moderately high (≥0.60). |
| 2026-07-30 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a mild bullish stance on EWZ. The primary reason is that arc 470 (Mexico Sheinbaum) provides clear non-price bullish evidence: the predictive market shows a 0.94 probability of Sheinbaum's continued tenure, systemic liquidity remains high (Fed net liquidity ≈ $5,916B), and FINRA reports significant decreases in short positions, which reduce the risk of sudden political changes and amplifying downside. This arc is a recent (<=7 days) confirming signal with excess_sigma aligning with the bullish direction; it should dominate portfolio considerations but note that multiple arcs (id:374, 331, 443, etc.) are marked as price_in, indicating that some positive factors have already been reflected in prices. Therefore, maintain moderate to high positions and suggest partial entry to guard against retracements priced into the market. |
| 2026-07-29 | Bullish lean | 0.64 | 维持对 EWZ 的温和偏多。主要驱动力是 arc 470（Mexico Sheinbaum）：预测市场显示 Claudia Sheinbaum 连任概率高（yes_prob=0.94），且系统性流动性维持在高位（Fed 净流动性 ≈ $5,916B），再加上 FINRA 报告的空头持仓下降，构成清晰的非价格多头支撑。须注意若干弧（例如 arc 331、374）被标注为 price_in，表明部分利好已被市场消化；同时期权隐含波动率处于高位，增加事件不确定性，因此保持中等偏上置信并建议分批建仓以防被已定价的短期冲击侵蚀回报。 |
| 2026-07-28 | Bullish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a slightly positive bias. The main driver comes from arc 470 (Mexico Sheinbaum): the predicted market probability of presidential continuity at yes_prob=0.94 and ample systemic liquidity (Fed net liquidity ≈ $5.9T) provide clear non-price support, supporting emerging markets/Brazilian risk assets; secondary support comes from improved liquidity and spread dynamics in arc 443 (India-Pakistan) (+1.00 excess_sigma), but this evidence is weaker and requires phased positioning. Note that arc 331 (Russia-Ukraine) has been flagged as price_in with an excess +8.62%, indicating that some of the positive factors have already been priced in, so confidence is limited to a conservative 0.60. |
| 2026-07-27 | Bullish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a slightly positive bias. The main driver comes from arc 470 (Mexico Sheinbaum): the high probability of political continuity with yes_prob=0.94 and systemic liquidity abundance (Fed net liquidity ≈ $5.9T) provide clear non-price support, reducing political tail risks and benefiting emerging market risk assets. Secondary support comes from improved liquidity/spread signals for arc 443 (India-Pakistan), but several Brazilian-related arcs lack evidence of a matching non-price transmission, and arc 331 (Russia-Ukraine) has been price_in with excess +8.62% flagged as True, indicating that some positive factors have already been factored into the market, suggesting to limit positions and proceed cautiously with partial entries. |
| 2026-07-26 | Bullish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a mild positive stance on EWZ, primarily due to the quantifiable non-price support provided by arc 470 (Mexico Sheinbaum): high probability of political continuity yes_prob=0.94 and systemic liquidity abundance (Fed net liquidity ≈ $5.9T), which is substantively favorable for emerging market risk assets. Arc 443 (India-Pakistan) serves as a secondary endorsement with improved liquidity and spreads, but with low confidence and some benefits already reflected in the market, making it merely supplementary. Meanwhile, be cautious of arc 331 (Russia-Ukraine/ Sanctions), which has been partially priced in, and most Brazilian-related arcs remain contested with insufficient quantifiable fiscal or fundamental evidence to attribute, thus limiting positions to a slight bias positive rather than a strong bullish stance. |