TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF
Bearish lean Confidence 0.80 Regime Low-vol · at high
Maintain a medium-term bearish (lean_negative) stance on TIP. The primary driver is arc 80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): recent PPI has been significantly above expectations and the Fed-futures path is biased hawkish (fed_path_pct≈3.92), with 10-year real yields remaining at high levels (≈2.77%), which non-price quantitative signals increase discount rates and create a structural downward pressure on TIPS. Arc 232 and arc 148 provide independent supporting evidence (term premium ≈1.07, FRED real yield readings), both of which, when combined with arc 80, reinforce the directional bias; however, it is important to note that there has already been some reflection at the fund/price level (short-term net redemptions and a slight price rebound). Therefore, maintain the bearish stance while retaining position/stop-loss discipline, and reassess if there is a clear reversal in real rates or Fed-futures path.
30-day verdict history
| Date | Direction | Confidence | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Bearish lean | 0.80 | Maintain a medium-term bearish (lean_negative) stance on TIP. The primary driver is arc 80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): recent PPI has been significantly above expectations and the Fed-futures path is biased hawkish (fed_path_pct≈3.92), with 10-year real yields remaining at high levels (≈2.77%), which non-price quantitative signals increase discount rates and create a structural downward pressure on TIPS. Arc 232 and arc 148 provide independent supporting evidence (term premium ≈1.07, FRED real yield readings), both of which, when combined with arc 80, reinforce the directional bias; however, it is important to note that there has already been some reflection at the fund/price level (short-term net redemptions and a slight price rebound). Therefore, maintain the bearish stance while retaining position/stop-loss discipline, and reassess if there is a clear reversal in real rates or Fed-futures path. |
| 2026-10-21 | Bearish lean | 0.76 | Maintain a medium-term bearish (lean_negative) stance on TIP. The primary driver comes from non-price quantitative evidence in arc 80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): recent PPI was notably above expectations, Fed-futures indicate a more hawkish front-end interest rate path (fed_path_pct≈3.92), and the 10-year real yield has remained around 2.7-2.8%, all of which increase discount rates and exert systematic downward pressure on TIPS. Arc 232 and arc 148 provide independent (term premium ≈1.07, FRED real yield readings) that align with arc 80, reinforcing the directionality; although some price/redeem has partially reflected the downside, the strongest arcs are fresh and actionable, so maintain a bearish stance with medium-high confidence. |
| 2026-10-20 | Bearish lean | 0.72 | Maintain a medium-term bearish (lean_negative) stance on TIP. The driving factor is the non-price evidence from arc 80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): recent unexpected strength in PPI (MoM +1.3%, σ≈2.6%), 10-year real yield hovering around 2.74-2.78%, and term premium ≈1.07, indicating elevated discount rates/real interest rates that pose a systematic downward pressure on TIPS. Arc 232 and arc 148 converge with arc 80 in the independent quantitative of long-term/real yields and term premium, reinforcing the directionality; however, it should be noted that arc 80 is marked price_in_excess=True, and recent pricing already reflects some redemption activity (negative excess window, slight net redemptions over the past five days), implying that part of the downward pressure has been incorporated into the price. Therefore, in expressing a bearish stance, compress confidence. |
| 2026-10-19 | Bearish lean | 0.75 | Maintain a medium-term bearish (lean_negative) stance on TIP, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): unexpected strength in US PPI (+1.3% MoM, σ≈2.6) and a 10-year real interest rate of approximately 2.78% with term premium ≈1.07, which exerts substantial downward pressure on TIPS discount rates. Multiple independent arcs (arc 232/148) converge on similar non-price indicators to arc 80, enhancing directional consistency; however, short-term flows, while showing slight net inflows of +$42M over the past five days and negative window excess returns, weaken the feasibility of a significant rebuy, thus maintaining a bearish stance rather than a strongly bearish one. A change in direction would require verifiable counter-evidence from a key arc (e.g., arc 80) such as a significant decline in real interest rates/term premium. |
| 2026-10-18 | Bearish lean | 0.70 | Maintain a medium-term bearish view on TIP. The main driver is arc 80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): real interest rates for 10 years remain high (≈2.8%), term premium has risen (≈1.07), and recent macro data such as PPI and retail are overheated, which non-price signals have increased the discount rate of TIPS and put downward pressure on valuation. Arc 148 (ECB) and arc 232 (BoC) confirm similar evidence with real interest rates/term premium in a comparable window, reinforcing directional confidence; however, Kevin Warsh's moderate comments, net redemption flows in recent weeks, and option/liquidity signals weaken the feasibility of significantly increasing bearish positions immediately. Therefore, maintain a bearish stance rather than a strongly bearish one. |
| 2026-10-17 | Bearish lean | 0.70 | Maintain a medium-term bearish view on TIP. The main driver is the non-price evidence from arc 80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): with the 10-year real rate at a high level (≈2.8%) and term premium around 1.07%, coupled with market-implied fed_path, this raises discount rates and structurally suppresses TIPS valuation; arcs 148 (ECB) and 232 (BoC) confirm this path in similar substantive signals within a comparable window. Cautionary factors include recent net redemption flows and the return of IV/option demand, as well as minor accommodative signals (Kevin Warsh comments) that have slightly alleviated short-term expectations; therefore, it is not advisable to significantly increase bearish positions. |
| 2026-10-16 | Bearish lean | 0.68 | Maintain a medium-term bearish view on TIP. The main driver comes from non-price quantitative evidence of arc 80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): real interest rates of 10 years close to ~2.9%, term premium around 1.07%, and the market-implied interest rate path (fed_path) collectively increasing discount rates, structurally putting downward pressure on TIPS valuations; arcs 148 (ECB) and arc 232 (BoC) also confirm this path with similar non-price signals in the near window, reinforcing the bearish consensus. Note that arc 80 has been marked price_in (part of the downside is already factored into the market), and short-term net inflows/IV have risen, posing resistance; thus, confidence is moderately constrained and vigilance against short-term retracement and liquidity risks is warranted. |
| 2026-10-15 | Bearish lean | 0.66 | Maintain a medium-term bearish stance on TIP. The primary driver comes from non-price quantitative evidence for arc 80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): an actual 10-year rate of approximately 2.9%, term premium of about 1.07%, and the implied interest rate path (fed_path) all depress TIPS valuation through higher discount rates/term premiums; arcs 148 and 232 also provide supportive signals in the near window, reinforcing the bearish consensus. It is important to note that several key arcs (80, 148, 232) are marked with price_in_excess=True, indicating that some downside has been absorbed by the market; at the same time, short-term net inflows (slight inflows in the past 5-30 days) and declines in MOVE/IV create short-term counter-resistance. Therefore, a moderate convergence of positions and confidence is advised, with a review of the position after significant macroeconomic events. |
| 2026-10-14 | Bearish lean | 0.68 | Maintain a medium-term bearish view on TIP. The primary driver is the non-price evidence from Arc 80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): an approximate 10-year real rate of 2.9%, term premium of about 1.07%, and net redemption over the past 30 days (approximately -1.32% AUM), all of which will depress TIPS valuation through the discount rate/term premium channel. Multiple independent arcs (80, 148, 232) are giving a similar signal in the short term, and the latest snapshot still shows positive excess_sigma, which strengthens the bearish confidence; however, it should be noted that most arcs have been marked with price_in_excess=True, indicating that some of the downside has already been priced in. Short-term inflows and reduced volatility also act as a hedge or resistance, so confidence is moderated and positions will be reviewed after important macroeconomic events such as US CPI releases. |
| 2026-10-13 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Based on multiple actionable/confirmed trends, we maintain a lean negative stance on TIP for 1-3 months. The primary driver comes from Arc80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and non-price evidence from Arc148/232: with the real 10-year rate at approximately 2.87% and term premium around 1.08%, coupled with recent repricing of long-term rates and quantitative signals of an upward shift in discount rates, this will depress TIP valuations. Downside pressure is also supported by near 30-day net redemptions (≈-1.32% AUM). It should be noted that most support for the arc annotations indicates that some of the downside has already been reflected in market prices, thus we maintain a lean negative stance while moderately lowering our confidence to account for the 'priced-in' risk. |
| 2026-10-12 | Bearish lean | 0.65 | Maintain a bearish stance on TIP for the next 1-3 months, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arcs 80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle), arc 148 (ECB Eurozone Rate Cycle), and arc 232 (Canada Rate Policy): with real yields of about 2.87%, term premiums around 1.08%, and net redemptions over the past 30 days at approximately -1.8% AUM, these factors will increase the discount rate for TIPS and put pressure on valuation. Multiple key arcs are actionable/confirming (days_since_event <=7, excess_sigma supporting downside), thus the composite remains bearish; however, note that several arcs have price_in_excess=True, indicating that some interest rate repricings have already been factored into the market. Therefore, caution should be exercised in positioning and adding to positions, and attention should be paid to the short_shares and days-to-cover indicators from arc 80 for signs of crowded shorts or a potential squeeze. In summary, maintain a bearish bias but apply a mild discount due to the risk of being fully priced in, setting composite confidence at 0.65. |
| 2026-10-11 | Bearish lean | 0.70 | Maintain a bearish stance on TIP for the next 1-3 months, primarily driven by structural non-price evidence from arcs 80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and arc 148 (ECB Eurozone Rate Cycle): real yields remain elevated at around 2.87%, term premiums have risen to approximately 1.08%, and net redemptions over the past 30 days are around -1.7% to -2% of AUM, all factors that increase TIPS discount rates and downward pressure on valuation. Both arcs are near-term actionable (days_since_event <= 1) with excess_sigma supporting downside, thus maintaining high synthetic confidence; however, it should be noted that multiple arcs have price_in_excess=True annotations, indicating that some rate repricings have already been factored into the market, necessitating a moderate reduction in confidence. Risk warning: TIP shorts are crowded (short_interest and days-to-cover ≈ 4.6), and a potential decline in MOVE could limit extreme downside and increase short squeeze risk, hence maintaining a bearish stance but not recommending additional shorting at this time. |
| 2026-10-10 | Bearish lean | 0.70 | Maintain a bearish stance on TIP for 1-3 months, primarily driven by non-price structural evidence provided by Arc80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and Arc148 (ECB Eurozone Rate Cycle): nominal and real long-term yields are elevated (FRED 10Y≈5.22%, 10Y real≈2.87%), term premiums remain at high levels (≈1.08%), and there has been net redemptions in the past 30 days (≈-1.7% to -2% AUM), all of which increase the discount rate for TIPS and put downward pressure on ETF valuation. It should be noted that several arcs are marked with price_in=True (indicating some retracement is already priced in), so I have slightly reduced my confidence while maintaining a bearish stance; additionally, high long positions and IV suggest short-term volatility or squeeze risks, which need to be monitored. Overall, the fresh and quantifiable central bank/real yield evidence strengthens the bearish view, but given that some factors are already reflected in prices, extreme confidence is not warranted. |
| 2026-10-09 | Bearish lean | 0.68 | Maintain a bearish view on TIP for the next 1-3 months, primarily driven by non-price structural evidence from arcs 80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and arc 148 (ECB): nominal/real long-term interest rates are rising to high levels, term premiums are increasing, and there has been net redemptions over the past 30 days. These factors have increased the discount rate for TIPS and lowered ETF valuations. Arcs 493 (BoE) and arc 232 (Canada), although attenuated or just emerging, align in direction, reinforcing overall co-movement; it should be noted that multiple arcs are marked with price_in=True, indicating that some of the decline has already been factored into the market, which should reduce extreme confidence. Additionally, caution is advised regarding the risk of squeeze and short-term volatility due to high option IV and large short positions. Therefore, a bearish stance is recommended while controlling position size and monitoring key macroeconomic events. |
| 2026-10-08 | Bearish lean | 0.65 | Maintain a bearish view on TIP for the next 1-3 months. The driving force comes from non-price quantitative evidence: Arc 80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) shows that nominal and real long-term rates remain high (10y nominal ≈5.27%, 10y real ≈2.9%), with an elevated term premium, complemented by net outflows in the past 30 days (≈-2.07% AUM), which structurally increase the discount rate for TIPS. Arc 148 (ECB) reinforces this path—eurozone inflation has risen (headline CPI 3.8%), through global term premium and interest rate correlation, further increasing downside risks. Note that multiple arcs (80, 148, 232) are marked with price_in=True, indicating that some of the decline is already priced in by the market, and elevated option IV and crowded short positions suggest a risk of squeeze or volatility. Therefore, despite clear directionality, confidence is moderately reduced, and it is advised to control position size and event risks. |
| 2026-10-07 | Bearish lean | 0.70 | Maintain a bearish view on TIP for the next 1-3 months. This is primarily driven by arcs 80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and arc 148 (ECB): nominal/real rates remain at high levels (10Y ≈ 5.3%, real ≈ 2.9%), with a term premium of approximately 1.02, compounded by recent net outflows from funds (≈ -2.07% AUM in the past 30 days), which increase the discount rate for TIPS and create structural downward pressure. Note that multiple arcs are marked as price_in=True, indicating that some of the decline has already been priced in. Therefore, despite a clear direction, confidence is tempered by this 'priced-in' effect, and ') |
| 2026-10-06 | Bearish lean | 0.68 | Maintain a bearish view on TIP for 1-3 months. Mainly driven by non-price evidence from Arc80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): nominal and real yields remain at high levels (10Y≈5.28%, 10Y Real ≈2.92%) and there has been substantial net redemptions since September 29, 2026 (-1.1% AUM), which increases structural upward pressure on the discount rate of TIPS; signals from Arc148 (ECB) and Arc493 (BoE) regarding a rise in eurozone/UK inflation further support the transmission of term premiums and interest rates, reinforcing the bearish bias. Note that some arcs (such as Arc80/Arc148/Arc232) are marked with price_in=True, indicating that part of the decline has already been factored into the market; technical indicators (low RSI, short-term coverage) suggest risks of a short squeeze or bounce, so it is advised to control positions and manage risk based on events. |
| 2026-10-05 | Bearish lean | 0.66 | Maintain a bearish stance on TIPs for the 1-3 month horizon. Mainly driven by non-price structural evidence from Arc80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): long-term nominal/real yields remain high (10Y Nominal = 5.24%, 10Y Real = 2.88%), term premium is around 1.02%, and there has been net redemptions of approximately -$198M since September 28, 2026, which continues to put a discounting pressure on TIPS. Arc493 (BoE) and Arc161 (BoJ) align with Arc80 in terms of monetary policy and inflation-interest rate transmission chains for the eurozone/yen, reinforcing this view; however, it is important to note that several arcs have price_in=True annotations and elevated option IV/crowding indicators, indicating that some of the decline may already be priced in and increasing short-term squeeze/ volatility risks. Therefore, a bearish stance rather than a clear buy signal is recommended. |
| 2026-10-04 | Bearish lean | 0.64 | Maintain a bearish bias towards TIPs over the next 1-3 months. The primary drivers are arcs 161 (BoJ yen normalization) and arc 80 (Fed 2026 rate cycle): both provide non-price evidence indicating that the 10Y real yield is likely to remain around 2.88%-2.93%, with ETFs experiencing sustained net redemptions over the past 30 days (approximately -1.4% to -2.75% AUM). Arc 148 (ECB) regarding a rise in eurozone CPI (3.8%) also supports an increase in term premium/real rates, thereby reducing demand for TIPS. It is noted that multiple dominant arcs (161/148/80) are marked with price_in=True, and ETF IV along with crowdedness risk is high, indicating that some of the decline has already been priced in and increasing short-term volatility/bear squeeze risks. Therefore, while I acknowledge the negative causal chain, I moderate my confidence accordingly. |
| 2026-10-03 | Bearish lean | 0.65 | Maintain a bearish bias towards TIPs over the 1-3 month horizon. The primary drivers are Arc 80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and Arc 161 (BoJ Yen Normalization): non-price quantitative evidence suggests that long-term nominal/real yields remain elevated (10Y real around 2.88–2.93%) with a term premium of approximately 1.02%. Additionally, ETFs have shown net redemptions over the past 30 days (≈-2.2% to -2.75% AUM), which increases discount rates and dampens TIPS demand. Independent signals from Arc 148 (ECB) and Arc 493 (BoE) also reinforce the upward transmission of interest rates/term premiums; however, it should be noted that several leading arcs have been marked with price_in=True (indicating some downside has already been priced in), high ETF IV, and outflows. Therefore, while acknowledging the convergence of evidence, |
| 2026-10-02 | Bearish lean | 0.70 | Maintain a bearish bias towards TIPs for the 1-3 month horizon: the driving non-price evidence comes from Arc80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle), which shows that nominal/real rates and term premium remain elevated (10Y real yield ≈2.93%, term premium ≈1.02, market-implied Fed-funds rate path ≈3.94%), increasing the discount rate for TIPS. Arc161 (BoJ) and Arc148 (ECB) reinforce this through independent sources: upward movement in long-term real yields, inflationary risks in the eurozone with a hawkish bias, and ongoing net redemptions (-2.75% AUM over the past 30 days) provide convergent evidence. It is important to note that multiple dominant arcs have been marked as price_in=True (some downside has already been priced in), and ETF IV remains high, short positions are crowded, and upcoming NFP/CPI events increase the risk of short squeeze and volatility, thus confidence should be at mid-high levels with strict position and event window risk management recommended. |
| 2026-10-01 | Bearish lean | 0.67 | Based on a comprehensive set of fresh and actionable non-price indicators, maintain a bearish stance on TIPs over the 1-3 month horizon: Arc 80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) indicates that the market-implied Fed-funds rate is close to 3.98%, with both nominal and real long-term rates remaining at high levels, directly increasing the discount rate for TIPS. Arc 148 (ECB Eurozone Rate Cycle), using FRED data, confirms a 10Y yield of approximately 5.26%, a 10Y real yield of about 2.91%, and an increase in term premium, further reinforcing this structural pressure. It is important to note that the main bearish arcs (80/161/148) are marked with price_in=True, indicating that some downside has already been factored into the market. Additionally, technical/crowding risks (Arc 80 reveals RSI oversold conditions and days-to-cover of approximately 5.84) exist, so a 'lean' rather than a strong bearish stance is recommended, with advice to manage positions and set stop losses. |
| 2026-09-30 | Bearish lean | 0.63 | Maintain a bearish stance on TIP for the 1-3 month horizon, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arcs 80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and arc 161 (BoJ Yen Normalization): nominal and real long-term interest rates remain high (10Y nominal ≈5.2%, 10Y real ≈2.85–2.90%), the implied Fed-funds rate path is close to 4%, and ongoing net redemptions have increased the discount rate for TIPS. It should be noted that there are short-term technical and liquidity risks (arc 80 reveals an oversold RSI and a high days-to-cover of ≈5.84), and several key arcs marked price_in=True indicate that some declines may already be factored into the market (possibly priced in), thus lowering confidence moderately. Overall, while the evidence leans towards a bearish stance, it is still necessary to manage risk and maintain strict risk control, hence a lean_negative recommendation. |
| 2026-09-29 | Bearish lean | 0.66 | Maintain a bearish stance (1-3 months) on TIP, primarily based on non-price evidence from arcs 80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and 161 (BoJ Yen Normalization): elevated long-term nominal and real yields (10Y real yield = 2.85%, term premium = 0.96, market-implied Fed-funds rate = 4.05%), along with persistent net redemptions, which collectively increase the discount rate on TIPS and create structural downward pressure. Arcs 493 (BoE/UK Gilt Cycle) and 148 (ECB) also support an upward trend in rates/term premiums, reinforcing the bearish consensus, but it should be noted that several arcs (including 80, 161, and 148) with price_in=True indicate that some of the decline has already been factored into the market. Additionally, crowded short positions (days-to-cover = 5.84) and technical overselling limit room for further shorting. Therefore, maintain a lean_negative stance; however, if core non-price counter-evidence emerges (such as significant real yield declines or rapid inflows), a reevaluation would be necessary. |
| 2026-09-27 | Bearish lean | 0.64 | Maintain a bearish bias on TIP (1-3 months). The driving non-price evidence comes from Arc 161 (BoJ Yen Normalization): Mechanistic pathways for the yen normalization/yen-carry unwind push US Treasury long-term yields higher, thereby increasing the discount rate of TIPS. Snapshots from Arcs 80/148 also show an increase in long-term real interest rates (10Y real ~2.6-2.9%) and term premiums near ~0.96%, with TIP experiencing net outflows of approximately -1.91% AUM over the past 30 days, constituting an independent channel of selling pressure. Given that multiple arcs (161/80/148) are marked as |
| 2026-09-26 | Bearish lean | 0.66 | Maintain a bearish stance on TIP, primarily based on non-price evidence: Arc 161 (BoJ Yen Normalization) indicates that yen normalization/yen-carry unwind would push long-term US Treasury yields up via a mechanical path, while Arc 80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) shows that the 10Y real interest rate and term premium are in an upward phase. These structural signals increase the discount rate for TIPS; additionally, multiple arcs (161/493/148) recording net outflows over 30 days represent independent channels of selling pressure. It should be noted that some downside has already been priced into the market (Arc 161 and Arc 80 marked with price_in_excess=True), so while acknowledging recent operability (Arc 161 is operational and days_since_event <= 7), confidence should be moderately reduced to reflect the 'already-included' risk and technical oversold condition/potential for a pullback. |
| 2026-09-25 | Bearish lean | 0.70 | Maintain a bearish stance on TIP, primarily relying on non-price evidence from Arc 80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and Arc 161 (BoJ Yen Normalization): the market-implied federal funds rate remains at high levels (≈4.055%), with upward trends in 10Y real interest rates and term premiums, which increase TIPS discount rates; additionally, there has been a sustained net redemption of TIPs, adding an independent selling pressure channel. It should be noted that part of the logic is already reflected in price (Arc 80/161 marked with price_in_excess=True), so confidence is moderately reduced and vigilance against short-term passive/buy-the-dip rebound risks is advised due to technical oversold conditions, rising MOVE, and increased days-to-cover. Weaker European/ECB arguments (Arc 148/493) provide secondary support, but the main driver remains non-price evidence from Treasuries and capital flows, thus maintaining a bearish stance without over-leveraging. |
| 2026-09-24 | Bearish lean | 0.76 | Maintain a bearish stance on TIPs, driven primarily by non-price indicators: Arc 80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) shows that the implied federal funds rate path in the market remains high (~4.05%) and both the nominal/real 10Y yield spread and term premium are rising, which increases the discount rate for TIPS; Arc 161 (BoJ Yen Normalization) reinforces funding channel dynamics (30-day net outflows + mechanism of selling US Treasuries related to yen), contributing together as bearish non-price forces. Note that Arc 80 is marked with price_in_excess=True, indicating that some of the decline has already been priced in by the market, thus slightly reducing confidence; arcs 148/493 provide diminishing support and do not significantly add new evidence. |
| 2026-09-23 | Bearish lean | 0.82 | Maintain a bearish view on TIP, driven by non-price evidence: Arc80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) is the main driver, indicating that the market-implied Fed-funds rate remains high (~4.02%), with 10Y real yields staying at elevated levels (≈2.6-2.7%) and an increased term premium, which raises the discount rates for TIPS. Arc161 (BoJ Yen Normalization) as a confirmation of recent reports provides a mechanism for fund flows related to the yen to sell US Treasuries (and with signs of net outflows from TIPs), reinforcing the bearish direction alongside Arc80's interest rate path. There has been some price decline, but the price_in indicator does not show full absorption (price_in_excess marked as False), so the conclusion remains based on non-price quantitative evidence and is maintained accordingly. |
| 2026-09-21 | Bearish lean | 0.75 | Maintain a lean negative stance on TIP, primarily driven by non-price evidence from Arc80 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): the implied Fed funds path in the market remains elevated, with 10-year real rates staying around 2.6-2.7% and term premiums rising, which increase the discount rate for TIPS and create structural downward pressure. Arc148 (ECB) and Arc161 (BoJ) provide secondary confirmation of this interest rate/real yield path, and recent fund net redemptions along with an increase in PUT IV support evidence of outflows and demand for risk protection. It should be noted that Arc80 is marked price_in_excess=True, indicating that some of the decline has been priced in, so while it provides significant confidence, it slightly moderates extreme views; Arc540 represents a nascent counter-argument but with low weight and not yet sufficient to change direction. |