Simulated Performance · Fixed Equal-Weight
Four $100,000 simulated walk-forward portfolios: the same daily directional verdicts, three ETF sizing schemes, plus one that expresses rate views with bond futures. Simulation only - no real money; built to test signal quality.
Universe: all 89 listed ETFs — US sectors and themes, countries and regions, commodities and precious metals, currencies, and bonds. The only book here holding equities and bonds together.
Sizing · fixed equal-weight: $5,000 per position, up to 20, same notional each (not vol-adjusted). See the Inverse-Vol page for inverse-volatility sizing.
Excluded 3 small/volatile ETF(s) (AUM<$2B & >40% annualised vol — not realistically fillable at size, and a drag on risk-adjusted return): BNO, CHPS, UNG.
$100,000 → $104,386.40
Initial capital → Final equity
70 / 18 / 0
Closed / Open / Pending
26.8 d
Avg hold
$10,842
Cash on hand · Initial + realised + interest − open cost
$225
Cash interest earned · Idle balance at the ultra-short rate · 3.85%
Performance by window
Rolling windows. Tier 2 risk-adjusted metrics require ≥30 trading days (else shown as —). Profit factor is an exception requiring only ≥3 closed trades.
| 7D | 1M | 3M | SI since launch · 98d | SPY buy & hold · SI | AGG buy & hold · SI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 · Strategic + Picking | ||||||
| Portfolio return | -0.90% | +0.71% | +5.13% | +4.39% | +2.42% | -2.07% |
| Benchmark (SPY) return | -0.63% | +1.49% | +3.68% | +2.42% | — | — |
| Value added | -0.27% | -0.77% | +1.45% | +1.97% | — | — |
| Alpha vs SPY (picking) | +0.42% | +0.63% | +1.25% | +0.74% | — | — |
| Alpha vs natural BM (picking) | +0.59% | +0.40% | +1.23% | +0.53% | — | — |
| Win rate | 33.3% | 29.4% | 45.1% | 44.3% | — | — |
| Closed trades (count) | 3 | 17 | 51 | 70 | — | — |
| Max drawdown · invested | -1.38% | -1.38% | -2.02% | -3.91% | -4.49% | -3.92% |
| Tier 2 · Risk-adjusted | ||||||
| Sharpe · invested | — | — | 2.36 | 1.13 | 0.21 | -2.20 |
| Sortino | — | — | 3.35 | 1.59 | 0.31 | -2.74 |
| Calmar | — | — | 11.24 | 3.82 | 1.41 | -1.33 |
| Annualised vol | — | — | 7.0% | 8.9% | 12.5% | 4.3% |
| Beta vs SPY | — | — | 0.09 | 0.27 | — | — |
| Info ratio · vs page BM | — | — | 0.49 | 0.60 | — | — |
| Profit factor | 0.03 | 1.10 | 1.56 | 1.10 | — | — |
Long/Short breakdown (cash excluded, side-deployed-capital basis)
| 7D | 1M | 3M | SI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↳ Long · Portfolio return | -0.77% | +2.05% | +7.80% | +10.13% |
| ↳ Short · Portfolio return | -1.03% | +0.96% | +5.22% | +2.66% |
| ↳ Long · Win rate | 50.0% | 23.1% | 41.2% | 42.6% |
| ↳ Short · Win rate | 0.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | 47.8% |
| ↳ Long · Max drawdown · invested | -1.71% | -2.50% | -5.42% | -5.52% |
| ↳ Short · Max drawdown · invested | -1.70% | -1.70% | -2.22% | -4.59% |
| ↳ Long · Sharpe · invested | — | — | 2.39 | 1.57 |
| ↳ Short · Sharpe · invested | — | — | 1.79 | 0.35 |
| ↳ Long · Sortino | — | — | 3.71 | 2.40 |
| ↳ Short · Sortino | — | — | 2.77 | 0.51 |
| ↳ Long · Annualised vol | — | — | 10.9% | 14.4% |
| ↳ Short · Annualised vol | — | — | 9.0% | 9.3% |
| ↳ Long · Beta vs SPY | — | — | 0.43 | 0.72 |
| ↳ Short · Beta vs SPY | — | — | -0.54 | -0.46 |
| ↳ Long · Profit factor | — | 1.01 | 1.71 | 1.21 |
| ↳ Short · Profit factor | — | 2.52 | 1.14 | 0.82 |
Weekly P&L
Weekly P&L = week-end NAV − prior week-end NAV (bucketed Mon–Sun, labelled by the last trading day of the week), which inherently includes BOTH realized (closed trades) and unrealized (open positions marked-to-market), since NAV = cash + realized + open MtM. YTD = latest NAV − initial capital.
YTD: +$4,386 (+4.39%) · SPY same period: +2.42% Win
| Week ending | Week-end NAV | P&L | % | SPY % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | $104,386 | −$466 | -0.44% | +1.28% | Loss |
| 2026-10-16 | $104,852 | +$446 | +0.43% | -1.96% | Win |
| 2026-10-09 | $104,407 | +$253 | +0.24% | +1.15% | Loss |
| 2026-10-02 | $104,153 | +$550 | +0.53% | -0.22% | Win |
| 2026-09-25 | $103,603 | −$43 | -0.04% | +1.26% | Loss |
| 2026-09-18 | $103,646 | −$430 | -0.41% | -0.09% | Loss |
| 2026-09-11 | $104,076 | −$562 | -0.54% | -0.76% | Win |
| 2026-09-04 | $104,638 | +$609 | +0.59% | +0.11% | Win |
| 2026-08-28 | $104,030 | −$648 | -0.62% | +0.47% | Loss |
| 2026-08-21 | $104,677 | +$1,240 | +1.20% | -1.36% | Win |
| 2026-08-14 | $103,437 | +$1,535 | +1.51% | +0.40% | Win |
| 2026-08-07 | $101,901 | +$1,222 | +1.21% | +3.50% | Loss |
| 2026-07-31 | $100,679 | +$1,343 | +1.35% | +1.09% | Win |
| 2026-07-24 | $99,336 | +$919 | +0.93% | -0.59% | Win |
| 2026-07-17 | $98,417 | −$2,753 | -2.72% | -1.54% | Loss |
| 2026-07-10 | $101,170 | +$206 | +0.20% | +1.36% | Loss |
| 2026-07-02 | $100,964 | +$398 | +0.40% | +2.16% | Loss |
| 2026-06-26 | $100,567 | −$236 | -0.23% | -2.37% | Win |
| 2026-06-18 | $100,803 | +$208 | +0.21% | +0.93% | Loss |
| 2026-06-12 | $100,595 | +$552 | +0.55% | +0.57% | Loss |
| 2026-06-05 | $100,042 | +$42 | +0.04% | -2.77% | Win |
Page 1 / 1
Book scenario (data-only)
All measured numbers — no LLM narration. 2026-06-05→2026-10-21 · 96d
Profit engine: both sides
Energy ·7+$2,933
Gold ·4+$1,704
Banks/Financials ·7+$1,259
Defense/Aero ·4+$928
Utilities ·1+$186
Sleeves · hedge status
Longs ·51 (avg +$72 · 43%W)+$3,676
Shorts ·37 (avg +$13 · 48%W)+$485
Both sides positive — no hedge cost
Implied regime: reflation / rates-up tilt + still primarily a selection book (idiosyncratic 93%)
net beta 0.162 · idiosyncratic 93%
Intentional hedges
—
Accidental straddles · 0
none
Latest-day P&L by ETF 2026-10-21
Per-ETF P&L of positions held on 2026-10-21 (18 positions, this page's sizing). Total +$97.
| ETF | Direction | Day ret | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IYR | short | -0.95% | +$47 | |
| VNQ | short | -0.86% | +$43 | |
| XLRE | short | -0.76% | +$38 | |
| VDE | long | +0.38% | +$19 | |
| XPH | short | -0.30% | +$15 | |
| XLE | long | +0.28% | +$14 | |
| KBE | short | -0.09% | +$5 | |
| UUP | long | +0.07% | +$3 | |
| BNDX | short | -0.04% | +$2 | |
| IEF | short | -0.02% | +$1 | |
| FXY | short | -0.02% | +$1 | |
| KRE | short | +0.00% | +$0 | |
| FXC | short | +0.00% | +$0 | |
| TLT | short | +0.14% | −$7 | |
| IWM | short | +0.25% | −$13 | |
| IAU | short | +0.35% | −$17 | |
| XOP | long | -0.51% | −$26 | |
| XLF | short | +0.57% | −$29 |
Factor Attribution · Risk
Return/risk split onto two factor levels — macro (Broad market/Rates/Credit/Dollar/Gold/Oil/Crypto) + sector/theme (Semis/China/Defense/Financials/Energy-eq) — plus idiosyncratic (selection). Window 2026-06-05→2026-10-21 (96d).
Risk composition (% of variance): Equity family 68% · Other macro 14% · Idiosyncratic 18%
Broad market 26%Semis 16%China 2%Defense 4%Energy eq. 12%Real estate 5%EM 2%Rates 3%Dollar 2%Gold 7%Oil 2%Idiosyncratic 18%
| Factor | Exposure β | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity (broad + sectors) | +0.40 | +0.65% | 15% | 67.8% |
| Broad market | +0.16 | +0.16% | 4% | 26.2% |
| Semis | +0.03 | -0.58% | -13% | 15.7% |
| China | +0.02 | +0.05% | 1% | 2.4% |
| Defense | +0.05 | +0.31% | 7% | 3.6% |
| Financials | +0.01 | +0.26% | 6% | 0.5% |
| Energy eq. | +0.09 | +0.62% | 14% | 12.4% |
| Real estate | -0.06 | +0.31% | 7% | 4.7% |
| Tech | +0.03 | +0.03% | 1% | -0.2% |
| EM | +0.07 | -0.52% | -12% | 2.5% |
| Other macro | -0.02 | -0.36% | -8% | 14.2% |
| Rates | -0.10 | -0.16% | -4% | 3.4% |
| Credit | +0.10 | -0.05% | -1% | -0.2% |
| Dollar | -0.11 | -0.18% | -4% | 2.4% |
| Gold | +0.06 | +0.47% | 11% | 6.8% |
| Oil | +0.02 | -0.46% | -10% | 2.1% |
| Crypto | +0.00 | +0.02% | 1% | -0.3% |
| Idiosyncratic | — | +4.09% | 93% | 17.9% |
A high idiosyncratic share means return/risk comes mainly from selection, not a factor bet. ⚠️ A factor row aggregates every holding that LOADS on it — not sector membership; short single-regime window — sector-factor βs are noisy, wide error bars.
Per-factor ETF loadings
Broad market
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWT | +0.013 | -0.28% | -6% | 0.2% |
| SMH | +0.008 | -0.25% | -6% | 1.8% |
| EWG · top:Credit | +0.001 | -0.24% | -5% | 0.1% |
| VTI | -0.023 | -0.23% | -5% | -1.8% |
| GDXJ · top:Dollar | +0.022 | +0.18% | 4% | 1.8% |
| EUAD · top:Credit | +0.023 | +0.18% | 4% | 2.1% |
| XOP · top:Energy eq. | +0.035 | +0.15% | 4% | -0.5% |
| KRE · top:Financials | -0.011 | +0.15% | 3% | 1.0% |
| JETS | -0.005 | +0.14% | 3% | 0.2% |
| IWM | -0.036 | +0.13% | 3% | -1.6% |
| KBE · top:Financials | +0.019 | +0.12% | 3% | 1.8% |
| MCHI · top:China | +0.001 | +0.12% | 3% | 0.2% |
Rates
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | -0.011 | -0.14% | -3% | 0.5% |
| VNQ · top:Real estate | -0.009 | -0.13% | -3% | 0.3% |
| WOOD · top:Credit | +0.005 | +0.11% | 2% | -0.1% |
| XPH · top:Credit | -0.004 | -0.10% | -2% | 0.2% |
| XRT · top:Credit | -0.007 | +0.09% | 2% | -0.1% |
| EUAD · top:Credit | +0.023 | -0.08% | -2% | -0.2% |
| JETS · top:Broad market | -0.005 | -0.08% | -2% | 0.0% |
| VGIT · top:Credit | +0.006 | +0.07% | 2% | 0.2% |
| EWG · top:Credit | +0.001 | +0.07% | 2% | 0.2% |
| IEF | -0.038 | +0.06% | 2% | 0.2% |
| SLX · top:Broad market | +0.009 | -0.06% | -1% | 0.1% |
| VDE · top:Credit | +0.036 | +0.05% | 1% | 0.3% |
Credit
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE | +0.021 | -0.09% | -2% | -0.0% |
| KRE · top:Financials | -0.011 | +0.09% | 2% | 0.0% |
| VDE | +0.036 | -0.07% | -2% | -0.2% |
| EEM · top:Broad market | +0.004 | -0.07% | -2% | 0.0% |
| SLX · top:Broad market | +0.009 | -0.07% | -2% | -0.0% |
| IAU · top:Dollar | -0.005 | +0.07% | 2% | 0.0% |
| PICK | +0.006 | -0.06% | -1% | 0.0% |
| FXI | +0.019 | -0.06% | -1% | -0.1% |
| MCHI · top:China | +0.001 | -0.05% | -1% | -0.0% |
| EUAD | +0.023 | +0.04% | 1% | -0.2% |
| IWM · top:Broad market | -0.036 | +0.04% | 1% | 0.1% |
| EWY | +0.005 | +0.04% | 1% | -0.2% |
Dollar
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDXJ | +0.022 | +0.23% | 5% | 1.1% |
| IAU | -0.005 | -0.16% | -4% | 0.2% |
| PICK · top:Credit | +0.006 | -0.12% | -3% | 0.2% |
| EWG · top:Credit | +0.001 | -0.12% | -3% | 0.1% |
| SLX · top:Broad market | +0.009 | -0.10% | -2% | 0.1% |
| FXY | +0.006 | -0.09% | -2% | 0.3% |
| GLD | +0.008 | +0.06% | 2% | 0.1% |
| UUP | +0.029 | -0.06% | -1% | 0.0% |
| KWEB · top:China | +0.006 | +0.05% | 1% | 0.1% |
| EUAD · top:Credit | +0.023 | +0.05% | 1% | 0.1% |
| MCHI · top:China | +0.001 | +0.03% | 1% | -0.0% |
| XLU · top:Real estate | -0.013 | -0.02% | -0% | -0.0% |
Gold
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDXJ · top:Dollar | +0.022 | +0.19% | 4% | 1.8% |
| GLD · top:Dollar | +0.008 | +0.13% | 3% | 1.4% |
| IAU · top:Dollar | -0.005 | +0.09% | 2% | 1.4% |
| EWY · top:Credit | +0.005 | -0.06% | -1% | 0.3% |
| PICK · top:Credit | +0.006 | +0.06% | 1% | 0.3% |
| EUAD · top:Credit | +0.023 | +0.05% | 1% | 0.3% |
| PPA · top:Broad market | +0.018 | +0.04% | 1% | 0.2% |
| EEM · top:Broad market | +0.004 | -0.03% | -1% | 0.2% |
| WEAT · top:Broad market | +0.011 | +0.02% | 0% | 0.0% |
| ITA · top:Defense | +0.031 | +0.02% | 0% | 0.3% |
| SOXX · top:Broad market | +0.011 | +0.01% | 0% | 0.3% |
| FXI · top:Credit | +0.019 | -0.01% | -0% | 0.1% |
Oil
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOP · top:Energy eq. | +0.035 | -0.37% | -8% | 1.1% |
| VDE · top:Credit | +0.036 | -0.21% | -5% | 0.6% |
| XLE · top:Credit | +0.021 | +0.19% | 4% | -0.2% |
| WEAT · top:Broad market | +0.011 | -0.17% | -4% | 0.3% |
| GDXJ · top:Dollar | +0.022 | +0.10% | 2% | -0.1% |
| JETS · top:Broad market | -0.005 | -0.07% | -2% | 0.1% |
| EUAD · top:Credit | +0.023 | +0.07% | 2% | -0.0% |
| ITA · top:Defense | +0.031 | +0.06% | 1% | -0.1% |
| IWM · top:Broad market | -0.036 | -0.06% | -1% | 0.1% |
| AMLP · top:Credit | +0.012 | -0.05% | -1% | -0.0% |
| EEM · top:Broad market | +0.004 | -0.05% | -1% | 0.1% |
| XRT · top:Credit | -0.007 | -0.05% | -1% | 0.1% |
Crypto
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEAT · top:Broad market | +0.011 | -0.10% | -2% | 0.0% |
| XOP · top:Energy eq. | +0.035 | +0.09% | 2% | -0.2% |
| JETS · top:Broad market | -0.005 | +0.07% | 2% | 0.0% |
| IWM · top:Broad market | -0.036 | -0.05% | -1% | 0.1% |
| GDXJ · top:Dollar | +0.022 | +0.04% | 1% | -0.1% |
| XLE · top:Credit | +0.021 | +0.04% | 1% | 0.0% |
| VDE · top:Credit | +0.036 | +0.03% | 1% | -0.1% |
| IYR · top:Real estate | -0.029 | -0.03% | -1% | 0.0% |
| SLX · top:Broad market | +0.009 | -0.02% | -0% | 0.1% |
| KWEB · top:China | +0.006 | +0.01% | 0% | 0.0% |
| XLP · top:Credit | +0.009 | -0.01% | -0% | 0.0% |
| SOXX · top:Broad market | +0.011 | +0.01% | 0% | 0.1% |
Semis
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOXX · top:Broad market | +0.011 | +0.63% | 14% | 6.4% |
| EWT · top:Broad market | +0.013 | -0.33% | -8% | 0.4% |
| XLK · top:Broad market | +0.006 | -0.27% | -6% | 1.1% |
| EWY · top:Credit | +0.005 | -0.25% | -6% | 2.6% |
| SMH · top:Broad market | +0.008 | -0.22% | -5% | 2.5% |
| DTCR · top:Broad market | +0.005 | -0.21% | -5% | 0.9% |
| XLF · top:Financials | +0.016 | +0.19% | 4% | -0.9% |
| XLRE · top:Real estate | -0.013 | -0.14% | -3% | 0.3% |
| VNQ · top:Real estate | -0.009 | -0.10% | -2% | 0.2% |
| QQQ · top:Broad market | +0.012 | -0.09% | -2% | 0.6% |
| KRE · top:Financials | -0.011 | -0.08% | -2% | -0.4% |
| KBE · top:Financials | +0.019 | +0.07% | 2% | -0.6% |
China
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI | +0.001 | -0.21% | -5% | 1.0% |
| KWEB | +0.006 | +0.12% | 3% | 1.1% |
| EEM · top:Broad market | +0.004 | +0.09% | 2% | -0.0% |
| FXI · top:Credit | +0.019 | +0.03% | 1% | 0.2% |
| XOP · top:Energy eq. | +0.035 | +0.02% | 0% | 0.0% |
| DTCR · top:Broad market | +0.005 | +0.02% | 0% | -0.1% |
| XLF · top:Financials | +0.016 | -0.02% | -0% | 0.0% |
| INDA · top:Broad market | +0.005 | +0.02% | 0% | -0.0% |
| EWY · top:Credit | +0.005 | -0.02% | -0% | 0.1% |
| KBE · top:Financials | +0.019 | -0.02% | -0% | 0.1% |
| IWM · top:Broad market | -0.036 | +0.02% | 0% | 0.0% |
| WEAT · top:Broad market | +0.011 | +0.02% | 0% | -0.1% |
Defense
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUAD · top:Credit | +0.023 | +0.17% | 4% | 0.9% |
| KRE · top:Financials | -0.011 | +0.14% | 3% | 0.2% |
| PPA · top:Broad market | +0.018 | -0.12% | -3% | 1.0% |
| XOP · top:Energy eq. | +0.035 | +0.07% | 2% | 0.1% |
| JETS · top:Broad market | -0.005 | +0.07% | 2% | -0.0% |
| KBE · top:Financials | +0.019 | +0.06% | 1% | 0.2% |
| IWM · top:Broad market | -0.036 | +0.06% | 1% | -0.0% |
| XLU · top:Real estate | -0.013 | -0.05% | -1% | -0.2% |
| EWY · top:Credit | +0.005 | -0.05% | -1% | 0.1% |
| XLE · top:Credit | +0.021 | +0.04% | 1% | 0.0% |
| SLX · top:Broad market | +0.009 | -0.04% | -1% | -0.1% |
| WEAT · top:Broad market | +0.011 | -0.04% | -1% | -0.0% |
Financials
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KRE | -0.011 | +0.40% | 9% | -0.3% |
| KBE | +0.019 | +0.17% | 4% | 0.1% |
| XLF | +0.016 | -0.12% | -3% | 0.4% |
| EWT · top:Broad market | +0.013 | +0.08% | 2% | -0.1% |
| XRT · top:Credit | -0.007 | +0.06% | 1% | -0.1% |
| XLE · top:Credit | +0.021 | -0.05% | -1% | 0.0% |
| IYR · top:Real estate | -0.029 | -0.04% | -1% | 0.1% |
| IWM · top:Broad market | -0.036 | -0.04% | -1% | 0.1% |
| AIQ · top:Broad market | +0.015 | -0.04% | -1% | 0.1% |
| JETS · top:Broad market | -0.005 | -0.03% | -1% | 0.1% |
| VDE · top:Credit | +0.036 | -0.03% | -1% | -0.1% |
| EEM · top:Broad market | +0.004 | +0.03% | 1% | -0.1% |
Energy eq.
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE · top:Credit | +0.021 | +0.38% | 9% | 4.2% |
| VDE · top:Credit | +0.036 | +0.12% | 3% | 3.6% |
| XOP | +0.035 | +0.09% | 2% | 3.6% |
| PICK · top:Credit | +0.006 | -0.05% | -1% | 0.3% |
| XLU · top:Real estate | -0.013 | -0.04% | -1% | -0.2% |
| XLP · top:Credit | +0.009 | +0.04% | 1% | 0.2% |
| AMLP · top:Credit | +0.012 | +0.03% | 1% | 0.4% |
| WOOD · top:Credit | +0.005 | +0.02% | 1% | 0.2% |
| SLX · top:Broad market | +0.009 | -0.02% | -0% | 0.4% |
| AIQ · top:Broad market | +0.015 | +0.02% | 0% | 0.1% |
| EWT · top:Broad market | +0.013 | +0.02% | 0% | 0.4% |
| KRE · top:Financials | -0.011 | -0.02% | -0% | -0.3% |
Real estate
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLRE | -0.013 | +0.15% | 3% | 1.7% |
| XLU | -0.013 | +0.11% | 2% | 0.9% |
| KRE · top:Financials | -0.011 | +0.10% | 2% | -0.3% |
| IYR | -0.029 | +0.07% | 2% | 1.8% |
| GDXJ · top:Dollar | +0.022 | -0.07% | -2% | -0.1% |
| XLP · top:Credit | +0.009 | -0.06% | -1% | -0.2% |
| VNQ | -0.009 | +0.06% | 1% | 1.0% |
| IWM · top:Broad market | -0.036 | +0.05% | 1% | 0.2% |
| KBE · top:Financials | +0.019 | -0.04% | -1% | -0.6% |
| DTCR · top:Broad market | +0.005 | -0.03% | -1% | -0.1% |
| AMLP · top:Credit | +0.012 | -0.03% | -1% | -0.1% |
| VDE · top:Credit | +0.036 | -0.02% | -0% | -0.1% |
Tech
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUAD · top:Credit | +0.023 | -0.05% | -1% | 0.0% |
| KBE · top:Financials | +0.019 | -0.05% | -1% | 0.1% |
| XLU · top:Real estate | -0.013 | +0.05% | 1% | 0.0% |
| XLK · top:Broad market | +0.006 | +0.04% | 1% | -0.2% |
| KRE · top:Financials | -0.011 | -0.03% | -1% | 0.1% |
| AIQ · top:Broad market | +0.015 | +0.03% | 1% | -0.3% |
| GDXJ · top:Dollar | +0.022 | +0.02% | 1% | -0.0% |
| SMH · top:Broad market | +0.008 | +0.02% | 0% | 0.0% |
| XRT · top:Credit | -0.007 | -0.02% | -0% | 0.0% |
| PPA · top:Broad market | +0.018 | +0.02% | 0% | -0.0% |
| EWT · top:Broad market | +0.013 | -0.01% | -0% | 0.0% |
| DTCR · top:Broad market | +0.005 | +0.01% | 0% | 0.0% |
EM
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWY · top:Credit | +0.005 | -0.21% | -5% | 1.0% |
| EWT · top:Broad market | +0.013 | -0.19% | -4% | 0.5% |
| PICK · top:Credit | +0.006 | -0.07% | -2% | 0.1% |
| WOOD · top:Credit | +0.005 | -0.04% | -1% | 0.0% |
| EUAD · top:Credit | +0.023 | -0.03% | -1% | 0.1% |
| DTCR · top:Broad market | +0.005 | -0.03% | -1% | 0.0% |
| SLX · top:Broad market | +0.009 | -0.03% | -1% | 0.1% |
| EEM · top:Broad market | +0.004 | -0.02% | -0% | 0.5% |
| EWG · top:Credit | +0.001 | +0.02% | 0% | 0.1% |
| MCHI · top:China | +0.001 | +0.02% | 0% | -0.0% |
| KWEB · top:China | +0.006 | +0.02% | 0% | -0.0% |
| AIQ · top:Broad market | +0.015 | -0.02% | -0% | 0.1% |
Per-ETF factor betas (50, the raw sensitivities aggregated above)
| ETF | Net w. | Broad market | Rates | Credit | Dollar | Gold | Oil | Crypto | Semis | China | Defense | Financials | Energy eq. | Real estate | Tech | EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IEF | -0.038 | 0.14 | 0.46 | 0.39 | -0.08 | 0.02 | -0.00 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | -0.01 | 0.03 | -0.01 | 0.01 |
| IWM | -0.036 | 1.11 | 0.16 | 0.93 | -0.02 | 0.07 | -0.04 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.28 | 0.08 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| VDE | +0.036 | -0.52 | -0.49 | 1.09 | -0.04 | 0.06 | 0.24 | 0.04 | -0.02 | 0.02 | -0.03 | 0.20 | 0.99 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| XOP | +0.035 | -0.75 | -0.85 | 0.55 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.35 | 0.07 | -0.01 | -0.04 | -0.12 | 0.22 | 1.03 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| ITA | +0.031 | 0.97 | 0.28 | -0.24 | -0.13 | 0.13 | -0.05 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.02 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| UUP | +0.029 | -0.16 | -0.11 | -0.64 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | -0.00 |
| IYR | -0.029 | 0.37 | 0.55 | 0.81 | -0.19 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.03 | -0.14 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 0.99 | -0.02 | -0.04 |
| EUAD | +0.023 | 1.26 | 0.34 | 1.39 | -1.06 | 0.20 | -0.07 | 0.01 | -0.06 | 0.03 | 0.69 | 0.00 | -0.17 | 0.09 | -0.27 | 0.36 |
| VTI | -0.023 | 1.01 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| GDXJ | +0.022 | 2.24 | 0.47 | 1.95 | -3.94 | 1.36 | -0.13 | 0.04 | 0.03 | -0.18 | -0.04 | 0.01 | -0.04 | 0.19 | 0.42 | 0.24 |
| XLE | +0.021 | -0.57 | -0.42 | 1.05 | -0.07 | 0.06 | 0.24 | 0.03 | -0.03 | 0.04 | -0.04 | 0.17 | 1.00 | -0.00 | -0.00 | -0.00 |
| HYG | -0.019 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 1.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 |
| KBE | +0.019 | 0.67 | 0.05 | 0.58 | 0.25 | -0.04 | -0.03 | 0.00 | -0.12 | -0.08 | 0.15 | 1.00 | 0.07 | 0.31 | -0.23 | -0.06 |
| FXI | +0.019 | 0.67 | 0.09 | 1.12 | -0.41 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 0.03 | -0.06 | 1.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 |
| PPA | +0.018 | 0.97 | 0.23 | -0.12 | -0.14 | 0.13 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | 0.87 | -0.01 | 0.05 | -0.01 | 0.09 | -0.03 |
| XLF | +0.016 | 0.63 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.20 | -0.04 | -0.01 | 0.04 | -0.20 | -0.04 | 0.12 | 1.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 |
| AIQ | +0.015 | 1.89 | -0.16 | 0.09 | -0.11 | 0.07 | -0.01 | 0.05 | 0.27 | 0.03 | -0.07 | -0.14 | -0.08 | -0.26 | 0.79 | 0.40 |
| XLU | -0.013 | 0.11 | 0.57 | 0.41 | -0.29 | 0.05 | 0.03 | -0.00 | -0.01 | -0.05 | 0.15 | -0.08 | 0.17 | 0.64 | -0.28 | 0.06 |
| EWT | +0.013 | 1.82 | 0.04 | 0.10 | -0.28 | 0.04 | -0.07 | -0.03 | 0.40 | -0.02 | -0.04 | -0.24 | 0.14 | -0.05 | 0.13 | 1.14 |
| XLRE | -0.013 | 0.34 | 0.54 | 0.77 | -0.20 | -0.00 | 0.01 | 0.03 | -0.14 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 1.00 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| AMLP | +0.012 | -0.20 | -0.06 | 0.46 | -0.11 | -0.02 | 0.10 | -0.00 | -0.03 | -0.02 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.35 | 0.13 | 0.02 | -0.07 |
| QQQ | +0.012 | 1.41 | -0.15 | -0.09 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.01 | -0.00 | 0.19 | -0.05 | -0.10 | -0.18 | -0.09 | -0.13 | 0.22 | 0.04 |
| KRE | -0.011 | 0.64 | 0.03 | 0.74 | 0.28 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.00 | -0.12 | -0.08 | 0.14 | 0.99 | 0.09 | 0.36 | -0.26 | -0.04 |
| FXC | -0.011 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.32 | -0.63 | 0.02 | 0.02 | -0.00 | -0.01 | 0.01 | -0.01 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| SOXX | +0.011 | 2.49 | -0.44 | 0.49 | 0.19 | 0.15 | -0.01 | -0.07 | 1.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| TLT | -0.011 | 0.23 | 1.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 |
| WEAT | +0.011 | -0.32 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 0.25 | 0.08 | 0.15 | -0.08 | -0.06 | -0.10 | 0.09 | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.10 | 0.04 | 0.27 |
| SLX | +0.009 | 1.18 | 0.22 | 0.97 | -1.17 | 0.23 | -0.04 | -0.04 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0.26 | 0.15 | -0.22 | 0.40 |
| XLP | +0.009 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.69 | -0.05 | 0.01 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.20 | 0.10 | 0.06 | -0.14 | 0.17 | 0.36 | -0.65 | -0.01 |
| VNQ | -0.009 | 0.38 | 0.57 | 0.89 | -0.17 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.03 | -0.14 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 1.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 |
| SMH | +0.008 | 2.28 | -0.36 | 0.51 | 0.20 | 0.12 | -0.01 | -0.06 | 0.79 | 0.02 | -0.03 | -0.10 | -0.03 | -0.06 | 0.20 | 0.06 |
| GLD | +0.008 | 0.84 | 0.22 | 1.00 | -2.08 | 1.00 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 |
| XRT | -0.007 | 0.81 | 0.48 | 0.93 | 0.13 | -0.00 | -0.07 | 0.03 | -0.17 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.28 | -0.01 | 0.23 | -0.36 | -0.06 |
| PICK | +0.006 | 1.59 | 0.22 | 1.79 | -1.75 | 0.50 | -0.05 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.22 | 0.04 | -0.01 | 0.49 |
| FXY | +0.006 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.39 | -1.02 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.00 | -0.00 | -0.02 | 0.01 | -0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| KWEB | +0.006 | 1.00 | -0.02 | 0.83 | -0.38 | 0.11 | -0.05 | 0.01 | -0.11 | 1.20 | 0.09 | -0.15 | -0.03 | -0.09 | 0.01 | 0.16 |
| VGIT | +0.006 | 0.10 | 0.30 | 0.40 | -0.08 | 0.01 | -0.00 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | -0.01 | 0.02 | -0.01 | 0.01 |
| XLK | +0.006 | 1.71 | -0.33 | -0.29 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.36 | -0.06 | -0.12 | -0.15 | -0.09 | -0.21 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| CORN | +0.005 | -0.18 | -0.01 | -0.31 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.00 | -0.03 | -0.20 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.00 | -0.05 | -0.08 | 0.14 |
| IAU | -0.005 | 0.84 | 0.23 | 1.00 | -2.07 | 0.99 | -0.00 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | -0.01 |
| INDA | +0.005 | 0.80 | 0.35 | 0.49 | -0.23 | -0.03 | -0.11 | -0.00 | -0.06 | 0.13 | -0.02 | 0.17 | -0.07 | 0.10 | -0.09 | 0.42 |
| JETS | -0.005 | 1.73 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.01 | -0.25 | -0.07 | -0.04 | 0.05 | 0.24 | 0.73 | -0.21 | 0.34 | -0.12 | 0.04 |
| WOOD | +0.005 | 0.78 | 0.56 | 0.78 | -0.38 | 0.11 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.09 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.24 | -0.34 | 0.28 |
| DTCR | +0.005 | 1.41 | 0.23 | 0.94 | -0.37 | 0.12 | -0.01 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.14 | 0.11 | -0.12 | 0.04 | 0.48 | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| EWY | +0.005 | 2.87 | 0.54 | 3.41 | -1.05 | 0.29 | -0.12 | -0.03 | 0.95 | -0.07 | 0.19 | -0.45 | 0.33 | -0.17 | 0.50 | 2.33 |
| EEM | +0.004 | 1.51 | 0.19 | 1.41 | -0.54 | 0.15 | -0.07 | -0.01 | 0.33 | 0.21 | 0.03 | -0.11 | 0.07 | -0.01 | 0.03 | 1.00 |
| XPH | -0.004 | 0.83 | 0.54 | 1.42 | -0.58 | 0.03 | -0.08 | 0.02 | -0.02 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.17 | -0.10 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| BNDX | +0.002 | 0.17 | 0.26 | 0.30 | -0.07 | 0.01 | -0.02 | -0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.01 | 0.02 | -0.02 | 0.03 |
| MCHI | +0.001 | 0.80 | -0.01 | 0.80 | -0.38 | 0.15 | -0.01 | 0.02 | -0.02 | 0.86 | 0.02 | -0.05 | -0.03 | 0.02 | -0.03 | 0.17 |
| EWG | +0.001 | 1.05 | 0.50 | 1.48 | -0.87 | 0.02 | -0.05 | 0.00 | -0.04 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.08 | -0.11 | 0.30 |
β = the ETF's sensitivity to each (orthogonalised) factor (green +/red −, shaded by magnitude); net weight + = book net long the ETF, − = net short. Book exposure = Σ net weight × β.
P&L leaderboard by ETF
Multiple trades on the same ETF are summed, so this ranks tickers — not individual trades. Realized = closed positions; unrealized = still held, marked to the latest close and therefore still moving.
Realized
Top 5 gainers
GDXJ 1 trades+$1,556
EUAD 1 trades+$771
KBE 1 trades+$518
KRE 1 trades+$359
SOXX 2 trades+$341
Top 5 losers
EWY 1 trades−$466
AIQ 1 trades−$411
PICK 1 trades−$403
EWG 2 trades−$400
SMH 1 trades−$369
Structure diagnostics (incl. open, funded basis)
Long/short books and entry-confidence buckets (all trades incl. open MTM) — which side loses money, and whether confidence is trustworthy.
+$3,676
Long book · 51 trades · win% (incl. open MTM) 45%
+$485
Short book · 37 trades · win% (incl. open MTM) 46%
Entry-confidence buckets
| Bucket | N | Win rate | Avg P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.60–0.64 | 28 | 61% | +1.33% |
| 0.65–0.69 | 33 | 33% | +0.23% |
| 0.70+ | 27 | 44% | +1.42% |
Strategy rules (v2)
Signal source = consolidated ETF verdict (every slot the reasoning layer synthesises all active narrative opportunities for an ETF into one direction + confidence). Max 1 position per ETF.
Capital / sizing
- $100,000 initial (v2 walk-forward starts 2026-06-01)
- $5,000 fixed nominal per position (NOT 5% of equity)
- Max 20 simultaneous positions ($100k / $5k)
- Signal source: the daily consolidated ETF verdict's confidence
↗ Entry rule (ALL of)
- direction ∈ {lean_positive, lean_negative}
- confidence ≥ 0.60 + persistence (≥2 same-side verdict-days in 5d window, no opposite day)
- not in active blacklist
- ETF has no open position
- Capacity available (incumbents priority; contested slots ranked by persistence days, NOT confidence — 2026-07-09, conf measured anti-predictive)
↘ Exit triggers (any-fires)
- 1. unrealized PnL ≤ −30% → close + add to blacklist (persistent, manual unblock)
- 2. Direction flip: ≥3 opposite verdict-days in 5d window (2→3, 2026-07-09) → close + 1-slot cooldown
- 3. Direction cleared: NO same-side lean in window (any confidence counts as support — 2026-07-09 fix) → close
- 4. Min hold 14 days (7→14, 2026-07-09; hold-forever peaks median ~17d): only the stop-loss can close earlier
- 5. Held ≥ 90 days → close
Per-trade Alpha computed against each ETF's natural peer benchmark (SPY default / EFA DM country / EEM EM country / AGG bonds) — see Alpha vs BM column in the trade table. Portfolio-level Alpha vs SPY kept for the marketing-card view.
Equity curve
Three lines: Portfolio = the $100k account's actual NAV (idle cash included); Benchmark = buy-and-hold over the same span; Deployed return = return on invested money only (P&L ÷ invested cost), rescaled to $100k notional. Because its denominator is invested capital only it is amplified vs the portfolio: above it when winning, below when losing — the gap is idle-cash dilution.
Drawdown curve (underwater)
How far the current portfolio is below its all-time high. 0% = at a new high.
Trade-level detail
Win rates and breakdowns below count closed trades only; open positions are marked-to-market and excluded.(closed 70 · open 18)
+$220
Avg win
−$159
Avg loss
+$1,556
Best trade
−$466
Worst trade
+0.43%
Long win rate · n=47
+0.48%
Short win rate · n=23
Exit reason mix
direction_clear: 36 flip: 34 open: 18Confidence calibration + breakdowns
Win rates and breakdowns below count closed trades only; open positions are marked-to-market and excluded.(closed 70 · open 18)
By confidence bucket
| Bucket | N | Win rate | Avg P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60%–70% | 54 | 46% | +0.49% |
| 70%–80% | 16 | 38% | -0.87% |
By ETF
| ETF | N | Win rate | Avg P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI | 4 | 50% | +0.25% |
| VGIT | 3 | 67% | -0.15% |
| KWEB | 3 | 33% | +0.38% |
| FXY | 3 | 0% | -1.29% |
| VTI | 3 | 0% | -2.20% |
| BNDX | 2 | 50% | +0.14% |
| EWT | 2 | 0% | -1.56% |
| EEM | 2 | 100% | +1.51% |
Blacklisted ETFs (auto stop-loss −30%)
Hitting −30% unrealized auto-closes the position and lists the ETF here; it stays out until manually unblocked.
Empty — no ETFs have hit the 30% stop-loss.
All trades (no cherry-pick)
Every closed and open trade listed in full (nothing cherry-picked); open trades marked-to-market at the latest close. Alpha vs BM = excess return vs each ETF's natural peer benchmark. Newest first.
88 rows · newest first · 10/page
| ETF | Direction | Entry | Exit | Reason | Hold days | Size $ | Carry | P&L % | P&L $ | BM | BM return | Alpha vs BM | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FXY | short | 2026-10-19 $57.79 | 2026-10-21 $57.90 | open | 2 | — | — | -0.19% | −$10 | SPY | -0.86% | +0.67% | 70% |
| XLRE | short | 2026-10-19 $41.67 | 2026-10-21 $42.06 | open | 2 | — | — | -0.94% | −$47 | SPY | -0.86% | -0.07% | 63% |
| XLF | short | 2026-10-14 $54.52 | 2026-10-21 $56.04 | open | 7 | — | — | -2.79% | −$139 | SPY | -0.45% | -2.33% | 66% |
| VNQ | short | 2026-10-12 $91.36 | 2026-10-21 $91.49 | open | 9 | — | — | -0.14% | −$7 | SPY | +0.64% | -0.79% | 70% |
| KBE | short | 2026-10-12 $63.39 | 2026-10-21 $64.30 | open | 9 | — | — | -1.44% | −$72 | XLF | -1.80% | +0.36% | 72% |
| XPH | short | 2026-10-09 $64.65 | 2026-10-21 $63.96 | open | 12 | — | — | 1.07% | +$53 | SPY | +0.70% | +0.36% | 74% |
| UUP | long | 2026-10-07 $29.04 | 2026-10-21 $28.92 | open | 14 | — | — | -0.41% | −$21 | — | +0.00% | -0.41% | 66% |
| FXC | short | 2026-10-05 $68.51 | 2026-10-21 $69.53 | open | 16 | — | — | -1.49% | −$74 | SPY | +0.22% | -1.71% | 78% |
| WOOD | long | 2026-10-05 $66.21 | 2026-10-19 $66.25 | direction_clear | 14 | — | — | 0.07% | +$3 | MXI | +0.00% | +0.07% | 70% |
| BNDX | short | 2026-09-29 $46.86 | 2026-10-21 $47.09 | open | 22 | — | -0.24% | -0.73% | −$37 | — | +0.00% | -0.73% | 70% |
| KWEB | short | 2026-09-28 $24.66 | 2026-10-12 $24.75 | direction_clear | 14 | — | — | -0.36% | −$18 | FXI | +0.09% | -0.45% | 69% |
| IAU | short | 2026-09-24 $80.30 | 2026-10-21 $77.71 | open | 27 | — | — | 3.23% | +$161 | — | +0.00% | +3.23% | 65% |
| TLT | short | 2026-09-23 $80.46 | 2026-10-21 $80.24 | open | 28 | — | -0.39% | -0.11% | −$6 | — | +0.00% | -0.11% | 68% |
| MCHI | short | 2026-09-23 $53.17 | 2026-10-12 $52.15 | flip | 19 | — | — | 1.92% | +$96 | EEM | +2.30% | -0.39% | 63% |
| CORN | long | 2026-09-23 $19.76 | 2026-10-07 $19.05 | direction_clear | 14 | — | — | -3.59% | −$180 | DBA | -0.21% | -3.38% | 62% |
| FXY | long | 2026-09-21 $58.20 | 2026-10-09 $57.90 | direction_clear | 18 | — | — | -0.52% | −$26 | SPY | +0.66% | -1.17% | 70% |
| XLF | long | 2026-09-21 $55.90 | 2026-10-05 $53.88 | flip | 14 | — | — | -3.61% | −$181 | SPY | +0.17% | -3.79% | 70% |
| IYR | short | 2026-09-17 $98.94 | 2026-10-21 $97.07 | open | 34 | — | — | 1.89% | +$95 | SPY | -1.62% | +3.51% | 68% |
| VTI | short | 2026-09-16 $371.26 | 2026-10-14 $376.88 | direction_clear | 28 | — | -0.26% | -1.77% | −$89 | SPY | -2.31% | +0.54% | 70% |
| WEAT | long | 2026-09-14 $26.17 | 2026-09-29 $25.05 | direction_clear | 15 | — | — | -4.28% | −$214 | DBA | -2.45% | -1.83% | 72% |
| SLX | long | 2026-09-09 $111.10 | 2026-10-05 $105.13 | direction_clear | 26 | — | — | -5.37% | −$269 | XME | -9.53% | +4.15% | 68% |
| IEF | short | 2026-09-08 $92.16 | 2026-10-21 $90.23 | open | 43 | — | -0.33% | 1.76% | +$88 | AGG | +1.31% | +0.45% | 75% |
| XRT | short | 2026-09-08 $85.70 | 2026-09-28 $82.55 | direction_clear | 20 | — | -0.20% | 3.47% | +$174 | XLY | +4.16% | -0.69% | 65% |
| PICK | long | 2026-09-08 $66.13 | 2026-09-24 $60.80 | direction_clear | 16 | — | — | -8.06% | −$403 | MXI | -5.42% | -2.64% | 66% |
| EWG | long | 2026-09-03 $43.92 | 2026-09-21 $42.60 | direction_clear | 18 | — | — | -3.01% | −$150 | EFA | -1.92% | -1.08% | 62% |
| FXC | short | 2026-09-02 $70.72 | 2026-09-16 $69.81 | direction_clear | 14 | — | — | 1.29% | +$64 | SPY | +1.45% | -0.17% | 66% |
| EWT | long | 2026-08-31 $108.03 | 2026-10-19 $107.26 | flip | 49 | — | — | -0.71% | −$36 | EEM | -5.54% | +4.82% | 68% |
| MCHI | long | 2026-08-31 $54.72 | 2026-09-21 $54.00 | flip | 21 | — | — | -1.32% | −$66 | EEM | +2.70% | -4.02% | 68% |
| QQQ | long | 2026-08-27 $721.11 | 2026-09-17 $716.92 | flip | 21 | — | — | -0.58% | −$29 | SPY | -1.10% | +0.52% | 66% |
| EEM | long | 2026-08-26 $67.17 | 2026-09-22 $69.10 | direction_clear | 27 | — | — | 2.87% | +$144 | SPY | +1.20% | +1.67% | 63% |
| TLT | long | 2026-08-26 $83.30 | 2026-09-09 $81.73 | direction_clear | 14 | — | +0.38% | -1.51% | −$75 | — | +0.00% | -1.51% | 66% |
| FXI | long | 2026-08-24 $35.55 | 2026-09-23 $34.36 | direction_clear | 30 | — | — | -3.35% | −$167 | EEM | +2.42% | -5.77% | 65% |
| BNDX | long | 2026-08-24 $47.68 | 2026-09-08 $47.39 | direction_clear | 15 | — | +0.25% | -0.36% | −$18 | — | +0.00% | -0.36% | 66% |
| SOXX | short | 2026-08-20 $522.35 | 2026-09-03 $502.20 | flip | 14 | — | — | 3.86% | +$193 | QQQ | -0.95% | +4.81% | 66% |
| VTI | long | 2026-08-18 $379.04 | 2026-09-08 $377.60 | direction_clear | 21 | — | — | -0.38% | −$19 | SPY | -0.19% | -0.19% | 75% |
| KRE | short | 2026-08-17 $77.39 | 2026-10-21 $70.62 | open | 65 | — | -0.53% | 8.22% | +$411 | XLF | +2.33% | +5.88% | 70% |
| VGIT | long | 2026-08-13 $58.53 | 2026-09-14 $57.28 | direction_clear | 32 | — | +0.35% | -1.78% | −$89 | TLT | -1.63% | -0.15% | 66% |
| JETS | short | 2026-08-12 $31.62 | 2026-08-26 $29.76 | flip | 14 | — | — | 5.88% | +$294 | SPY | +0.83% | +5.05% | 60% |
| KWEB | long | 2026-08-11 $28.09 | 2026-08-26 $26.28 | direction_clear | 15 | — | — | -6.44% | −$322 | FXI | -0.31% | -6.14% | 68% |
| IWM | short | 2026-08-10 $299.98 | 2026-10-21 $276.48 | open | 72 | — | -0.25% | 7.58% | +$379 | SPY | -0.25% | +7.84% | 70% |
| FXY | long | 2026-08-10 $57.62 | 2026-08-27 $57.50 | direction_clear | 17 | — | — | -0.21% | −$10 | SPY | -0.25% | +0.04% | 62% |
| WEAT | long | 2026-08-10 $24.01 | 2026-08-24 $25.48 | flip | 14 | — | — | 6.12% | +$306 | DBA | +1.73% | +4.40% | 62% |
| XLP | long | 2026-08-07 $85.12 | 2026-09-02 $85.53 | direction_clear | 26 | — | — | 0.48% | +$24 | SPY | -1.05% | +1.53% | 62% |
| TLT | short | 2026-08-06 $82.52 | 2026-08-20 $82.34 | flip | 14 | — | — | 0.22% | +$11 | — | +0.00% | +0.22% | 68% |
| XOP | long | 2026-08-05 $165.19 | 2026-10-21 $199.02 | open | 77 | — | +0.46% | 20.94% | +$1,047 | XLE | +19.60% | +1.34% | 72% |
| XLE | long | 2026-08-03 $58.79 | 2026-10-21 $68.16 | open | 79 | — | +0.65% | 16.58% | +$829 | SPY | +2.28% | +14.30% | 74% |
| VDE | long | 2026-07-28 $162.02 | 2026-10-21 $189.90 | open | 85 | — | +0.65% | 17.86% | +$893 | SPY | +4.61% | +13.25% | 65% |
| EWG | short | 2026-07-27 $41.78 | 2026-08-10 $43.87 | flip | 14 | — | — | -5.00% | −$250 | EFA | -3.95% | -1.06% | 66% |
| GDXJ | long | 2026-07-23 $97.60 | 2026-09-22 $127.97 | direction_clear | 61 | — | — | 31.12% | +$1,556 | SPY | +5.02% | +26.09% | 66% |
| AMLP | long | 2026-07-22 $54.82 | 2026-08-24 $54.92 | direction_clear | 33 | — | +1.88% | 2.06% | +$103 | XLE | +6.60% | -4.54% | 70% |
| FXI | long | 2026-07-22 $34.43 | 2026-08-12 $35.23 | direction_clear | 21 | — | — | 2.32% | +$116 | EEM | +2.26% | +0.06% | 65% |
| MCHI | long | 2026-07-22 $53.57 | 2026-08-06 $55.91 | flip | 15 | — | — | 4.36% | +$218 | EEM | +0.05% | +4.31% | 70% |
| KWEB | long | 2026-07-22 $26.44 | 2026-08-05 $28.54 | direction_clear | 14 | — | — | 7.94% | +$397 | FXI | +4.79% | +3.15% | 78% |
| FXY | short | 2026-07-20 $56.46 | 2026-08-07 $58.24 | flip | 18 | — | — | -3.15% | −$158 | SPY | -4.20% | +1.05% | 65% |
| INDA | long | 2026-07-20 $48.55 | 2026-08-03 $50.16 | flip | 14 | — | — | 3.32% | +$166 | EEM | +1.20% | +2.12% | 62% |
| HYG | short | 2026-07-16 $79.80 | 2026-09-08 $79.12 | direction_clear | 54 | — | -1.03% | -0.17% | −$9 | SPY | -2.03% | +1.86% | 65% |
| VNQ | short | 2026-07-14 $97.57 | 2026-07-28 $100.95 | flip | 14 | — | — | -3.46% | −$173 | SPY | +1.46% | -4.92% | 63% |
| PPA | long | 2026-07-13 $171.39 | 2026-08-31 $167.39 | direction_clear | 49 | — | — | -2.33% | −$117 | SPY | +2.39% | -4.72% | 70% |
| XLU | short | 2026-07-13 $45.72 | 2026-08-18 $44.02 | flip | 36 | — | — | 3.72% | +$186 | SPY | -2.44% | +6.16% | 63% |
| XLRE | short | 2026-07-08 $44.15 | 2026-08-10 $44.40 | flip | 33 | — | — | -0.57% | −$28 | SPY | -3.71% | +3.14% | 66% |
| MCHI | short | 2026-07-06 $52.02 | 2026-07-20 $54.08 | flip | 14 | — | — | -3.96% | −$198 | EEM | +5.93% | -9.89% | 75% |
| SMH | long | 2026-07-02 $592.29 | 2026-07-27 $548.55 | flip | 25 | — | — | -7.38% | −$369 | SOXX | -8.84% | +1.46% | 67% |
| EWY | long | 2026-07-02 $180.14 | 2026-07-16 $163.36 | flip | 14 | — | — | -9.31% | −$466 | EEM | -2.30% | -7.02% | 60% |
| GLD | long | 2026-06-30 $368.38 | 2026-07-22 $379.12 | direction_clear | 22 | — | — | 2.92% | +$146 | — | +0.00% | +2.92% | 64% |
| DTCR | long | 2026-06-29 $30.43 | 2026-07-13 $28.39 | direction_clear | 14 | — | — | -6.70% | −$335 | SPY | +1.10% | -7.81% | 70% |
| VGIT | short | 2026-06-25 $59.05 | 2026-07-23 $58.23 | flip | 28 | — | -0.32% | 1.07% | +$54 | TLT | +4.42% | -3.35% | 70% |
| XLK | long | 2026-06-25 $184.57 | 2026-07-13 $181.28 | direction_clear | 18 | — | — | -1.78% | −$89 | SPY | +2.03% | -3.81% | 68% |
| QQQ | long | 2026-06-24 $710.62 | 2026-07-08 $711.44 | flip | 14 | — | — | 0.12% | +$6 | SPY | +1.66% | -1.54% | 72% |
| XLF | long | 2026-06-22 $53.70 | 2026-07-28 $57.60 | flip | 36 | — | — | 7.26% | +$363 | SPY | -0.47% | +7.74% | 60% |
| XOP | long | 2026-06-15 $158.36 | 2026-07-06 $153.96 | direction_clear | 21 | — | +0.47% | -2.31% | −$115 | XLE | -3.66% | +1.36% | 62% |
| VDE | long | 2026-06-15 $156.76 | 2026-06-30 $150.91 | direction_clear | 15 | — | +0.66% | -3.07% | −$154 | SPY | -0.82% | -2.26% | 76% |
| VTI | short | 2026-06-12 $366.36 | 2026-08-10 $381.63 | flip | 59 | — | -0.28% | -4.45% | −$223 | SPY | -4.47% | +0.02% | 60% |
| EEM | short | 2026-06-12 $67.88 | 2026-06-29 $67.43 | direction_clear | 17 | — | -0.52% | 0.15% | +$7 | SPY | -0.16% | +0.30% | 61% |
| EUAD | long | 2026-06-11 $41.45 | 2026-08-17 $47.84 | direction_clear | 67 | — | — | 15.42% | +$771 | ITA | +6.49% | +8.92% | 60% |
| BNDX | long | 2026-06-11 $48.18 | 2026-06-25 $48.49 | flip | 14 | — | — | 0.64% | +$32 | — | +0.00% | +0.64% | 62% |
| EWT | short | 2026-06-11 $102.45 | 2026-06-25 $104.91 | flip | 14 | — | — | -2.40% | −$120 | EEM | -1.20% | -1.20% | 60% |
| XLE | short | 2026-06-09 $57.39 | 2026-07-02 $53.22 | flip | 23 | — | -0.67% | 6.60% | +$330 | SPY | -1.31% | +7.90% | 60% |
| UUP | long | 2026-06-08 $28.03 | 2026-08-13 $28.18 | flip | 66 | — | — | 0.54% | +$27 | — | +0.00% | +0.54% | 64% |
| KBE | long | 2026-06-08 $64.21 | 2026-08-11 $70.51 | flip | 64 | — | +0.55% | 10.36% | +$518 | XLF | +11.58% | -1.22% | 62% |
| IEF | short | 2026-06-08 $93.52 | 2026-08-10 $92.76 | flip | 63 | — | -0.67% | 0.14% | +$7 | AGG | +0.27% | -0.13% | 66% |
| AIQ | long | 2026-06-08 $64.44 | 2026-07-20 $59.14 | direction_clear | 42 | — | +0.00% | -8.22% | −$411 | QQQ | -2.68% | -5.54% | 60% |
| KRE | long | 2026-06-08 $70.36 | 2026-07-14 $75.00 | flip | 36 | — | +0.59% | 7.19% | +$359 | XLF | +8.46% | -1.27% | 60% |
| IAU | long | 2026-06-08 $81.38 | 2026-06-22 $78.80 | direction_clear | 14 | — | — | -3.17% | −$159 | — | +0.00% | -3.17% | 65% |
| VGIT | long | 2026-06-08 $58.53 | 2026-06-22 $58.69 | flip | 14 | — | — | 0.27% | +$14 | TLT | +1.74% | -1.46% | 60% |
| ITA | long | 2026-06-05 $229.45 | 2026-08-31 $228.35 | direction_clear | 87 | — | +0.07% | -0.41% | −$20 | SPY | +4.26% | -4.67% | 60% |
| IYR | short | 2026-06-05 $102.54 | 2026-07-22 $104.95 | flip | 47 | — | -0.50% | -2.85% | −$142 | SPY | -1.60% | -1.25% | 73% |
| SOXX | long | 2026-06-05 $539.77 | 2026-07-22 $555.52 | flip | 47 | — | +0.05% | 2.97% | +$149 | QQQ | +0.16% | +2.81% | 66% |
| IWM | short | 2026-06-05 $281.65 | 2026-07-06 $298.90 | flip | 31 | — | -0.25% | -6.37% | −$319 | SPY | -2.12% | -4.25% | 65% |
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Exit-reason legend:
stop_loss — Stop-loss — unrealised loss hit −30%; force-closed AND the ETF is blacklisted until manually unblocked. The only exit that can fire inside the 14-day minimum hold
flip — Direction flip — closed only when the opposite-side verdict PERSISTED (≥3 opposite-lean days with conf ≥0.45 within a 5-day window), not a single flipped verdict. Only checked after the 14-day minimum hold
direction_clear — Direction cleared — closed only when same-side leans fade to zero across the 5-day window (went neutral/mixed and stayed); a single neutral day does NOT close it. Only checked after the 14-day minimum hold
conf_low — Confidence exit (RETIRED) — legacy rule: closed when confidence fell below 0.45. Since 2026-07-09 exits are persistence-based; only historical rows may still show this reason
max_hold — Max hold — force-closed after 90 days
open — Still open — the exit column shows mark-to-market at the current price, not a real exit
Re-entry: after a close (except stop_loss blacklist), the same ETF re-enters as a NEW trade once its verdict re-passes the entry gate (conf ≥0.6 with direction, that direction persisting ≥2 days within a 5-day window — not a single slot) — a new row is appended; closed rows are never rewritten. A chase gate also applies: entry is skipped when the ETF has already moved more than 3.0% in the signal's direction over the 10 trading days before the signal.
ℹ️ How buy / sell signals are emitted
Pipeline: News → event → narrative (arc) → the reasoning layer reasons per-ETF and assigns a direction → hard gates → opportunity / daily verdict. Direction is inferred by the reasoner, not derived from price moves (a blueprint's direction is only a prior).
Buy (long): All of: ① an active narrative routes to this ETF (blueprint tag match) ② the reasoner calls direction = long ③ the direction has non-price evidence (policy / positioning / flows / macro — never just 'it's rising') ④ not blocked by the priced-in gate ⑤ clears the red line (probe evidence exists). Medium-term positions also need support confirmation and the ≥14-day hold horizon.
Sell (short): Fully symmetric to buy, with direction = short. Extra: low-confidence shorts are damped by the verdict layer (calibration shows low-conviction shorts are the worst cohort); once a 'ceasefire'-type bearish catalyst is realised, a veto gate blocks continuing to short.
Hard gates (any failure = no signal): blueprint tag · non-price grounding · priced-in · red line (no data → no conclusion) · region ISO match · confidence calibration. Buy and sell pass the same gates — only the direction differs.
Not triggers (don't confuse): regime (Strong / at-high / off-low — observation only) · single-day reads · pure price momentum · inverse-vol sizing (sets position size only; it neither creates nor changes direction).
Note: this page replays those signals under fixed / inverse-vol sizing — it measures the signal-plus-sizing combination, and does not alter the signal itself.
Methodology
(1) $100,000 simulated portfolio, walk-forward, fills at the signal day's close; (2) no fees, slippage or taxes, except the rates-futures portfolio; (3) benchmarks are total-return (dividends included); (4) simulated results are not live trading and do not predict future performance.