GLD SPDR Gold Shares
Bearish lean Confidence 0.33 Regime Low-vol
Based on the majority of non-price quantitative evidence across multiple arcs, I maintain a bearish view on GLD. The driving factors are the continued drawdown in CFTC net longs reported for arc 170 (indicating cooling speculative long positions) and arc 196, as well as the high levels of 10y real interest rates indicated by arcs 170/196/559 (approximately 2.7-2.8%), which increase holding costs and create a structural downward pressure on gold prices. It is important to note that some bearish factors have been partially reflected in price, as indicated by the price_in markers for arc 170 and arc 75. Additionally, the long-term passive AUM and low option IV suggested by arc 559 provide some cushion against a sharp decline, so I maintain my confidence level at medium-low.
30-day verdict history
| Date | Direction | Confidence | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Bearish lean | 0.33 | Based on the majority of non-price quantitative evidence across multiple arcs, I maintain a bearish view on GLD. The driving factors are the continued drawdown in CFTC net longs reported for arc 170 (indicating cooling speculative long positions) and arc 196, as well as the high levels of 10y real interest rates indicated by arcs 170/196/559 (approximately 2.7-2.8%), which increase holding costs and create a structural downward pressure on gold prices. It is important to note that some bearish factors have been partially reflected in price, as indicated by the price_in markers for arc 170 and arc 75. Additionally, the long-term passive AUM and low option IV suggested by arc 559 provide some cushion against a sharp decline, so I maintain my confidence level at medium-low. |
| 2026-10-21 | Bearish lean | 0.35 | Based on the comprehensive non-price quantitative evidence across arcs, we maintain a bearish stance on GLD. The driving factors are speculative positions and interest rates: CFTC net longs have been continuously retreating (as seen in COT data for arcs 170 and 196), while the 10y real interest rate remains at a high level of approximately 2.7–2.8% (arcs 170/196/559). This provides structural downward pressure through 'real interest rates ↑ → holding costs ↑'. It is important to note that in some arcs, the bearish direction has already been reflected in prices (price_in marked as True for arcs 170, 75, and 94), which lowers confidence and requires attention to the partial offsetting effect of long-term passive inflows on the downside (arc 559). |
| 2026-10-20 | Bearish lean | 0.40 | Based on the aggregated non-price quantitative evidence from multiple arcs, I maintain a bearish stance on GLD. The primary drivers are arc 196 (US Debt Crisis) and arc 170 (Metals Price & Demand): CFTC net longs have been continuously retreating (currently at +107,089 contracts), with real interest rates staying high for a decade (real rate ≈2.7%), providing structural downward momentum through the mechanism of 'higher real rates -> higher holding costs -> pressure on gold'. Central bank purchases and long-term passive inflows (seen in arcs 170/559) partially offset this, but several geopolitical conflict arcs have already reflected some of the downside risk at the price level (such as price_in for arc 75/94 being marked), indicating that some risks may be priced in. Therefore, confidence remains moderately low. |
| 2026-10-19 | Bearish lean | 0.45 | Based on the majority of non-price evidence from various arcs, I maintain a bearish stance on GLD: The quantitative chain dominated by arc 196 (US Debt Crisis) and arc 170 (Metal Prices & Demand) shows that CFTC/COT net long positions are continuously retreating while real interest rates remain at high levels. This provides structural downward momentum through the mechanism of 'real rate increase -> higher holding costs -> pressure on gold'. Although central banks and passive funds have partially offset some of this decline as seen in arcs 170/559, the flow of capital and low volatility do not constitute a strong enough non-price confirmation signal to reverse the trend. Moreover, several arcs are decaying or nascent, keeping confidence levels moderately low. The decision is based on non-price evidence (COT and real interest rates) rather than purely price momentum. |
| 2026-10-18 | Bearish lean | 0.50 | Maintain a lean negative stance on GLD. The non-price evidence driving the direction is the sustained retracement of CFTC/COT net longs from their highs, along with ten-year real rates remaining at elevated levels (~2.8%), which provide structural downward momentum through the chain of 'real rates up -> holding costs up -> pressure on gold' (mainly referencing arcs 196 and 616). Constraints to the bearish stance come from ongoing central bank and passive fund allocations (see arcs 170 / arc 559), but these inflows are not sufficient to reverse the structural signals from COT and real rates; note that there is a contradiction between the written short argument in arc 170 and its quantitative snapshot (quant shows a positive price_in_excess over a short window), so we reduce the weight of this arc. Several arcs are marked as 'price already factored in' (such as arcs 94/71 with price_in=True), indicating that some declines have been absorbed by the market, thus lowering confidence accordingly. Non-price quantitative evidence forms the main benchmark for this conclusion, with price momentum serving as secondary support. |
| 2026-10-17 | Bearish lean | 0.45 | Maintain a negative bias towards GLD. The non-price-driven factors mainly come from the evidence reported in arcs 173 and 196: CFTC COT net longs have been continuously retreating from their highs (recently down to around ~107k from ~133k), and the 10-year real interest rate/yield is relatively high (10y real ≈2.8–2.9%), which creates structural downward pressure through the chain of 'real rates up -> holding costs up -> pressure on gold'. The constraints on the short position are provided by the continuous central bank purchases and net redemptions into GLD reported in arc 170, with arcs 173/559 noting price_in=True (part of the decline has already been factored in), thus reducing confidence and suggesting a cautious/constrained position management approach. |
| 2026-10-16 | Bearish lean | 0.45 | Maintain a lean negative stance on GLD, primarily based on the non-price evidence from arcs 173 and 196: CFTC COT net long has significantly retreated from its high (dropping from +133,116 to +110,987 over four consecutive periods), and the 10-year real interest rate/real yield has risen (10y real ≈2.84–2.91%, up in the last 20 days). This forms a medium-term bearish logic based on |
| 2026-10-15 | Bearish lean | 0.50 | Maintain a bearish stance on GLD. Multiple arcs of independent non-price quantitative evidence continue to point towards pressure: exemplified by arc 173 and arc 196, CFTC COT net longs have significantly retreated from their highs (recently down about -9,331 contracts, currently at +110,987), and the 10-year real interest rate/yield has risen (10y real ≈2.91%), which increases the holding cost of precious metals with no yield and dampens speculative demand. It is important to note that some of the decline has already been factored into the market (price_in=True for arc 173/arc 86), and GLD still sees medium-to-long-term net inflows along with low option IV levels (limiting higher confidence). Therefore, a bearish stance should be maintained but with controlled position sizing and risk management. |
| 2026-10-14 | Bearish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a bearish stance on GLD, primarily driven by arcs 559 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and arc 173 through non-price evidence: sustained upward movement in real interest rates (increasing the holding cost of uninterest-bearing gold) and continuous drawdown in CFTC COT net long positions from highs constitute structural headwinds. It is noted that multiple arcs (such as arc 173, 86, 94) marked with price_in=True indicate that some declines have already been factored into the market, and GLD has seen passive net inflows along with low IV, limiting higher confidence levels. In summary: non-price fundamental indicators point to a bearish outlook, but due to partial pricing absorption and risks of fund/IV replenishment, confidence remains moderately high. |
| 2026-10-13 | Bearish lean | 0.63 | Maintain a bearish stance on GLD, primarily driven by counter-non-price quantitative evidence: Arc 559 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and the core chain pointing to still-high 10-year real interest rates (≈2.87%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing gold) and CFTC COT net longs continuously retreating (latest ~110,987 contracts) constitute a structural headwind for bulls. Arc 559 is a new actionable signal (days_since_event ≤7, excess_sigma in line), thus reinforcing the bearish bias; however, it should be noted that this arc indicates price_in (recent declines are partially factored in), and GLD still has passive/institutional net redemptions with low IV, posing risks of coverages/short squeezes, thereby limiting higher confidence. Overall, while acknowledging these coverage and factored-in factors, maintain a bearish stance but with limited confidence. |
| 2026-10-12 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a bearish stance on GLD, primarily supported by the latest actionable arc 559 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and existing arcs 173/576: non-price quantitative evidence indicates that real interest rates remain at high levels around 2.87% for ten years, and there has been a significant pullback in CFTC COT net longs over the past four periods (latest ~110,987 contracts), which independently increase the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing gold and weaken speculative bullish positions. It should be noted that arcs 559 and 576 are both marked as price_in (short-term declines have been partially factored in), and GLD continues to experience persistent passive/institutional net redemptions and low option IV, which pose a risk of covering/short squeeze. Therefore, while acknowledging the bearish structural evidence, caution should be exercised regarding position size and confidence. |
| 2026-10-11 | Bearish lean | 0.55 | Maintain a bearish stance on GLD. The primary non-price-driven factors come from arc 173 (China Rare Earth Export Restriction) and arc 576 (BoJ Yen Normalization): Both have quantitative evidence pointing to the bears—CFTC COT net longs have been declining from highs (latest ~110,987 contracts and clearly down in the last four periods), and the ten-year real interest rate remains high and has risen over the past 20 days (around 2.87%), which independently increases the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing gold and weakens bullish fundamentals. Note that arc 576 is marked as price_in (price partially factored in) and GLD has seen net redemptions with low IV, posing a risk of cover/squeeze. Therefore, while structurally bearish, confidence is moderately lowered to low. |
| 2026-10-10 | Bearish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a bearish stance on GLD. The primary non-price driver comes from arcs 173 and 576: CFTC COT net longs have been continuously retreating (over the past four periods, sliding from highs to ~110,987 contracts), while real interest rates remain at elevated levels (around 2.87%, up over the last 20 trading days). These two independent quantitative pieces of evidence increase the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing gold and weaken the bullish foundation. Note that some of the decline has already been factored into the market (price_in marked by arcs 576 and 559), and GLD has seen net redemptions with low IV, which increases the risk of a short covering or squeeze. Therefore, maintain a cautious bearish position until confirmation signals are clear and no new triggering events occur. |
| 2026-10-09 | Bearish lean | 0.66 | Maintain a lean negative stance on GLD. Driven by independent non-price evidence from arcs 173 and 616: the ten-year real interest rate has risen to around 2.9%, with an upward movement of approximately +48bp over the past 20 days (increasing the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing gold), while CFTC COT net longs have retreated from +134,972 to +120,318, indicating a reduction in speculative positions. It is important to note that both leading arcs are marked as price_in (indicating some declines have already been factored into the market), and GLD has seen net redemptions with options/IV at low levels, which would limit downside and constrain confidence. Therefore, maintain a lean negative stance but do not over-leverage. |
| 2026-10-08 | Bearish lean | 0.63 | Maintain a lean negative stance on GLD. Driven by independent non-price evidence from arcs 173 and 616: upward ten-year real interest rates (around 2.9%) increase the cost of holding gold without interest, and CFTC COT net longs have been retreating in recent periods, creating structural downward pressure. Note that both leading arcs are marked price_in (part of the decline is already factored into the market), and low net redemptions and option/IV levels for GLD may limit the downside, so maintain a lean negative stance but lower confidence to reflect priced-in factors and liquidity constraints. |
| 2026-10-07 | Bearish lean | 0.66 | Maintain a lean negative stance on GLD. The driving logic is provided by independent non-price evidence from arcs 173 and 616: the 10-year real interest rate remains around 2.9% and has risen in the past 20 days (increasing the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing gold), while CFTC COT net longs have retreated continuously from highs to approximately +120k contracts, both contributing to medium-term downward pressure. Note that some of the decline is already factored in (arcs 173 and 559 marked price_in), and recent net redemptions for GLD and increased puts/shorts against low GVZ levels pose a risk of crowded rallies or bear squeeze, hence maintaining a lean negative stance but not over-leveraging. |
| 2026-10-06 | Bearish lean | 0.64 | Maintain a lean negative stance on GLD. Drivers from arcs 173 and 616 include non-price quantitative evidence: real interest rates remain around 2.9% for ten years, with an upward trend over the past 20 days (increasing the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing gold), while CFTC COT net longs have continued to decline to approximately +120k contracts, forming a combined signal of medium-term downward pressure. It should be noted that arc 173 indicates price_in (part of the decline has already been factored in), and recent inflows into GLD are close to zero with low levels of options and volatility, which may limit the extent of the decline and dampen confidence in an upward move. |
| 2026-10-05 | Bearish lean | 0.63 | Maintain a lean negative stance on GLD. Drivers include non-price evidence from arcs 173 and 616: the 10-year real interest rate remains around 2.9% with an upward trend over the past 20 days (increasing the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing gold), while CFTC COT net longs have been declining consistently to about +120k contracts, indicating de-leveraging by speculative bulls, which collectively create medium-term downward pressure. Note that both arcs are marked price_in (downside partially factored in) and GLD's recent cash flows and IV are at low levels, limiting confidence and posing risks of a squeeze or short-term rebound, thus confidence is moderated accordingly. |
| 2026-10-04 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Combining all arcs, we maintain a bearish stance on GLD, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arcs 173 and 616: real interest rates remain around 2.9% for 10 years and have risen in the past 20 days (increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold without interest), while CFTC COT net longs have been declining over recent periods, indicating that speculative long positions are de-leveraging. It should be noted that some downside has already been partially priced into the market—arcs 173/616/559 all marked price_in in their respective windows, and GLD has seen net inflows for both 30 and 90-day periods, with option IV at low levels. This suggests a crowded/bullish squeeze risk and protective downside risk. Therefore, while confirming the bearish direction, we temper our confidence slightly. The conclusion is based on non-price quantitative evidence (interest rates + COT), with prices partially confirmed but also signaling 'partially priced in' downside. |
| 2026-10-03 | Bearish lean | 0.66 | Continue to maintain a bearish lean (lean_negative) on GLD. Mainly driven by non-price evidence from arc 173 and arc 616 (recently confirmed), as well as arc 559: the 10-year real interest rate has risen to around 2.9% (about +48–49bp in the past 20 days), increasing the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing gold; meanwhile, CFTC COT net longs have continued to retreat, indicating a de-leveraging by speculative positions. Note that price and ETF inflows and redemptions have partially realized this downside (multiple arcs marking price_in), and GLD's recent window net inflows with low IV pose a risk of congestion or squeeze. Therefore, while confirming the bearish direction, |
| 2026-10-02 | Bearish lean | 0.63 | Maintain a bearish stance (lean_negative). The primary non-price drivers come from arc 173 (China rare earth export restriction, March 1 and confirming), arc 559 (Fed 2026 rate cycle), and arc 616 (Latin American economy): the common quantitative evidence includes an increase in the 10Y real interest rate to around 2.9% (up by +48–49bp over the past 20 days), and a decline in CFTC net longs from high levels to +127,389 (down -5,727 on a weekly basis), which raises the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing gold and indicates that speculative long positions are being reduced. Note that arc 559 and arc 616 are marked with price_in=True (some downward momentum has been absorbed by the market), and GLD shows moderate net inflows in the medium term (+0.8% AUM over 30 days) providing limited hedging, thus while the direction is bearish, confidence should not be too high. |
| 2026-10-01 | Bearish lean | 0.58 | Maintain a bearish stance. The driving non-price evidence comes from arcs 173/576/616: the 10Y real interest rate has risen significantly over the past 20 days to around 2.85-2.90% (+48-51bp), while CFTC speculative net longs have retreated in recent weeks to +127,389 (week-over-week -5,727). These structural factors increase the opportunity cost of holding interest-free gold and weaken speculative bullish positions. Note that multiple short-term bearish arcs (173/576/616) are marked with price_in=True, indicating that some downward momentum has been priced in. Therefore, while maintaining a bearish stance, I moderately lower my confidence to reflect the possibility of 'priced-in risks' or 'realized risks'. |
| 2026-09-30 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | 综合权衡后维持偏空（lean_negative）。驱动性非价格证据来自 arc 173（China rare earth export restriction）及同向的短期弧线：10y 实际利率近 20 日显著上行（≈+48–51bp，实际利率 ≈2.85–2.9%），同时 CFTC 净多在近数期回撤（当前 +127,389，周环比 −5,727），这些结构性因素提高了持有无息黄金的机会成本并削弱投机性多头；arc 576（BoJ/日元正常化）与 arc 616（Latin America economy）补强了此类利率/持仓逆风。需要指出的是若干弧标注 price_in=True（下行动能已有部分被市场吸收），且多条地缘性弧线仍为 contested/未被量化证实，因此虽偏向空方但信心受“已被定价/事件未完全确认”限制而不宜过高配仓。 |
| 2026-09-29 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | 综合弧线证据仍偏向空头：新近出现的 arc 173（China rare earth export restriction）提供了可量化的非价格支撑——10y 实际利率上升（≈2.85%，20d +51bp）与 CFTC 净多回撤，构成对无息黄金的结构性持有成本上行与投机性多头减弱；arc 576（BoJ/日元正常化）与 arc 603（EU‑US 关税争端）在量化信号上与之趋同，增强了中期偏空判断。需要指出的是，部分弧（含 173/576）标注 price_in=True，表明下行动能已有部分被市场吸收且存在已被“priced‑in”的风险，因此虽倾向空方但建议谨慎限仓并关注任何能改变非价格锚（如实际利率回落或 CFTC 净多显著回扩）的新证据。 |
| 2026-09-27 | Bearish lean | 0.60 | Continue to maintain a lean negative stance on GLD for the next 1-3 months. Decisions are based primarily on non-price evidence: arcs 170 and 559 indicate that the 10-year real interest rate has risen to around 2.85%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, and CFTC COT net longs have retreated consecutively for four periods, independently supporting the bearish chain. Note that arc 559 is marked with price_in=True (part of the downside has already been priced in), and combined with GLD's 30-day net inflows and extremely low IV, it increases the risk of a squeeze or overcrowding. Therefore, maintain direction while cautiously limiting confidence. |
| 2026-09-26 | Bearish lean | 0.63 | Maintain a lean-negative stance on GLD for the next 1-3 months. The decisive non-price evidence comes from arcs 170 and 559: both report that the 10Y real interest rate has risen to ~2.8–2.85%, and CFTC net longs have retreated from their highs (approximately to 127,389 contracts), directly increasing the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing gold and weakening speculative bulls. Contrary non-price evidence is provided by arc 196 indicating GLD inflows, but these are constrained by low IV/low GVZ environments and the fact that arc 559 has marked |
| 2026-09-25 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a lean_negative stance on GLD for 1-3 months. Decisive non-price evidence comes from arcs 170 (Metals Price & Demand) and arc 559 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): both report an increase in the 10Y real interest rate over the past 20 days (approximately +25–33bp), which raises the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing gold, and CFTC net long positions have been declining in recent periods, constituting a structural bearish factor. Contrary non-price evidence comes from arc 196 (US Debt Crisis) indicating fund redemptions and futures net longs (GLD has seen net creations of +$939M since 2026-09-07; CFTC remains net long at +133,116 contracts), suggesting that liquidity conditions and crowded positions may suppress or trigger a short-term rebound—furthermore, if some short-term price_in indicators (several arcs show price_in flagged=True) materialize, part of the move may already be priced in, thus requiring |
| 2026-09-24 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a bearish bias for GLD over the 1-3 month period. The primary reason is non-price quantitative evidence: arc 170 (Metals Price & Demand) and arc 559 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) indicate an increase in the 10Y real interest rate by nearly 20 days (+25–33bp), which raises the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing gold. Additionally, CFTC net long positions have declined recently, weakening speculative bullish support. Notable hedging evidence includes arc 196 showing fund/redemption flows (GLD has seen net creations of +$939M since 2026-09-07) and a net long position in futures, indicating that some upward momentum has been absorbed by the market. Therefore, confidence is set at medium to high but not extreme. |
| 2026-09-23 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | I maintain a bearish stance on GLD for the 1-3 month period, based on non-price evidence rather than price momentum alone: the driving forces are arc 170 (Metals Price & Demand) and arc 559 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle), which indicate an increase in the 10y real interest rate over the past 20 days (approximately 2.6-2.68%, +26-33bp) that raises the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing gold, and a decline in CFTC net long positions recently, weakening speculative support for bulls. Arc 170 is the most vivid confirmation signal so far in this cycle (days_since_event=2), thus confidence should not be unduly reduced; however, it must be noted that some of the downward momentum has been partially absorbed by the market – for example, arc 75's price_in marker and GLD's recent net redemption flows suggest a |
| 2026-09-21 | Bearish lean | 0.58 | I am bearish on GLD in the intermediate term (1-3 months), primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 559 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): a significant rise in real 10-year interest rates (around 2.6%, with an increase of ~25–27bp over the past 20 days) has raised the opportunity cost of holding gold; additionally, CFTC net long positions have been declining recently, indicating weakening speculative support. Several bearish arcs (such as arc 170 and arc 75) are aligning with arc 559, further reinforcing the downward bias. It is important to note that there is clear conflicting evidence that has been partially absorbed by the market: GLD still experienced net redemptions recently, and futures remain net long overall. Moreover, the short-term price_in of arc 559 has already been flagged (price_in_excess), indicating that some of the decline has already been reflected in prices, thus limiting confidence to a moderate-high level. |