IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Mixed Confidence 0.40 Regime Low-vol · at high
Maintain a mixed view. Multiple non-price indicators from various arcs offset each other – the CFTC report on TLT showing a net short of approximately -2.2M contracts for ten-year Treasuries, and the IEF showing net redemptions of about -9.7% AUM over the past 30 days, continue to exert downward pressure on duration; meanwhile, strong demand at Treasury auctions, low MOVE/IV, and term premiums (from reports by arcs 141 and 156) provide support for duration. The dovish path suggested by arc 156 remains a potential support but the evidence is weakening. Until one of the arcs provides fresh and confirmed single-sided non-price evidence, maintain a low-to-moderate confidence mixed stance.
30-day verdict history
| Date | Direction | Confidence | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Mixed | 0.40 | Maintain a mixed view. Multiple non-price indicators from various arcs offset each other – the CFTC report on TLT showing a net short of approximately -2.2M contracts for ten-year Treasuries, and the IEF showing net redemptions of about -9.7% AUM over the past 30 days, continue to exert downward pressure on duration; meanwhile, strong demand at Treasury auctions, low MOVE/IV, and term premiums (from reports by arcs 141 and 156) provide support for duration. The dovish path suggested by arc 156 remains a potential support but the evidence is weakening. Until one of the arcs provides fresh and confirmed single-sided non-price evidence, maintain a low-to-moderate confidence mixed stance. |
| 2026-08-23 | Mixed | 0.42 | Maintain a mixed outlook. Multiple non-price indicators from various arcs offset each other: the CFTC reports of net short positions in TLT (around -2.16M to -2.23M contracts) for arc141/arc533/arc488 and a 30-day net redemption of IEF at about -9.7% AUM for arc156/arc141/arc488, which exert downward pressure on duration; but strong demand in Treasury auctions, low MOVE/IV conditions, and the mention of long-term Treasury repurchase by the US Treasury and the related easing path from arc488 and arc156 provide support for duration. Given that most arcs are decaying or nascent with no fresh and confirmed one-sided evidence, maintain a medium-low confidence level. |
| 2026-08-22 | Mixed | 0.42 | Maintain a mixed outlook: multiple non-price indicators from various arcs largely offset each other, with no unidirectional trigger confirmed. The primary non-price evidence driving the downside comes from the CFTC net short position in TLT (approximately -2.16M to -2.23M contracts) reported by arc125/arc141/arc533 and a 30-day cumulative net redemption of IEF at about -9.7% AUM as reported by arc156, which tend to press down duration due to funding pressures; however, strong auction demand, low MOVE/low IV risk premium environments, and reduced fiscal repo supply mentioned in arc488 provide support for duration. Given that most arcs are decaying/nascent with no fresh+confirmed unidirectional evidence, confidence remains at a moderate level slightly below the previous one. |
| 2026-08-21 | Mixed | 0.45 | The key arc, arc156 (related to BoJ/yen path), which previously supported a bullish assessment, has recently weakened in terms of signals and confidence, and can no longer be considered as evidence for a one-sided bullish stance. Meanwhile, multiple arcs (such as arc125/arc488) continue to point towards persistent non-price negative factors: the CFTC 10Y has a large net short position (approximately -2,163,714 contracts), and IEF has seen a net redemption of about -9.7% AUM over the past 30 days, indicating downward pressure on duration from fund flows and positions; however, there are also temporary supports for long-term rates due to strong auction demands and fiscal repurchase activities. Given that these non-price evidences pull in opposite directions without a new one-sided confirmation, this assessment is now changed to 'mixed' with low to medium confidence. |
| 2026-08-20 | Bullish lean | 0.66 | Maintain a bullish stance on IEF. The primary driver comes from arc156 (BoJ Yen Normalization): this arc is a confirmed signal within the last 7 days, and non-price evidence suggests that Japanese actions related to the US dollar/yen may reduce Japan's marginal selling of Treasuries. Additionally, the CFTC 10Y net short position has retreated while bond auction demand remains strong, establishing a substantial channel for downward pressure on intermediate yields, which benefits IEF. It must be acknowledged that opposing non-price evidence from arc488/141 (IEF's significant net redemptions of approximately -9% AUM over the past 30 days and pronounced net shorts in futures) dampens confidence but is not sufficient to overturn the short-term directional conclusion provided by arc156 without new contradictory signals. |
| 2026-08-19 | Bullish lean | 0.66 | Maintain a bullish stance on IEF. The driving factor is the new and verifiable non-price evidence from arc156 (BoJ/Yen normalization): reduced central bank/yen-related actions have decreased Japan's marginal selling of US Treasuries, and the CFTC 10Y net short has retreated while demand for Treasury auctions remains strong, providing a substantial channel for downward pressure on mid-yields. The market and macro data predictions from arc125 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) favor duration, but must acknowledge ongoing non-price risks from arc488/141 (IEF has seen significant net redemptions over the past 30 days ≈ -9% AUM and substantial net shorts in futures), thus confidence is limited to a moderate level. |
| 2026-08-18 | Bullish lean | 0.64 | Maintain a bullish stance on IEF. Drivers: arc156 (BoJ/yen normalization) provides new and verifiable non-price evidence of marginal tightening in US Treasury medium-term supply post-intervention (USD pullback, yen stabilization, and CFTC net short unwind), with this arc confirming and days_since_event ≤7, enhancing bullish confidence; and the arc125 report on weak US retail sales has lowered market-implied Fed-funds rate path, further supporting duration recovery. The reverse non-price risk that must be retained comes from arc488: IEF experienced significant net redemptions over the past 30 days (≈-$4.05B / ≈-9% AUM) and persistent net shorts in futures continue to exert ongoing technical selling pressure, thus limiting overall confidence to moderately high (0.64). |
| 2026-08-17 | Bullish lean | 0.58 | Maintain a bullish bias for IEF based on comprehensive non-price evidence: arc125 (fed_2026_rate_cycle) indicates significant weakness in US retail sales (σ=-2.8) and a downward shift in the implied Fed-funds rate path (≈3.632%), which reduces the likelihood of continued interest rate hikes and supports duration. Evidence from arc156 (boj_yen_normalization) suggests that Japan’s expansion of dollar reserve tools and reduction in passive selling helps marginally tighten US Treasury supply, further supporting lower yields in mid-Treasury segments. The reverse non-price risk comes from arc488 (boe_uk_gilt_cycle): recent large net redemptions for IEF (≈-$4.05B) and persistent net shorts on the futures side create technical selling pressure, thus a ‘bullish’ stance rather than a strong bullish one is maintained, with continued vigilance regarding short-term liquidity and redemption risks. |
| 2026-08-16 | Bullish lean | 0.58 | I have shifted my stance on IEF from bearish to slightly bullish, driven by non-price evidence from arc125 (fed_2026_rate_cycle): significant weakness in US retail sales (σ=-2.8) and a clear reduction in market bets on September rate hikes (implied Fed-funds path down to ~3.63%), which changes the expected monetary policy trajectory, providing support for duration. Additionally, evidence from arc156 (boj_yen_normalization) regarding Japan reducing passive selling and expanding US dollar reserve tools quantitatively points to a marginal tightening on the supply side, further supporting an increase in duration. However, it must be acknowledged that there is a counter non-price risk—arc488 notes significant net redemptions from IEF (≈-$4.05B) and persistent net shorts in the futures market, which still pose downward pressure on duration. Therefore, while I am slightly bullish, this stance does not amount to a strong bullish call. For transparency: this shift is driven by new evidence from arc125 (see change_driver). |
| 2026-08-15 | Bearish lean | 0.63 | I maintain a bearish view on IEF. The driving non-price evidence comes from arc125 and arc141: CFTC reports show extreme net short positions in the 10-year futures (approximately -2.23M / -2.16M contracts), and IEF experienced significant net redemptions starting from 2026-08-06 (approximately $4.06B, or -9.4% AUM). These fund/hedging signals represent a continuous supply/selling pressure that supports yield increases. It is acknowledged that arc156 (BoJ intervention) is a new and recent piece of evidence pointing to marginal tightening in supply, but its current weight and confidence level are low, and it cannot offset the redemptions and extreme net short positions through non-price transmission. Therefore, the bearish bias remains unchanged. |
| 2026-08-14 | Bearish lean | 0.66 | I maintain a bearish view on IEF. The driving non-price evidence comes from arc125 and arc141: the CFTC report shows extreme net short positions in the speculative end for 10y (net = -2,231,670), while IEF has seen large-scale net redemptions since August 6, 2026 (≈$4.06B, ≈9.4% AUM), creating a persistent supply/demand imbalance that tends to push up long-end Treasury yields and depress IEF; the price factor is not yet fully accounted for (price_in_flagged=False). Given that two of the key arcs are decaying while the third arc (488) is nascent, I set my confidence level as moderately high to reflect strong evidence but with uncertainty regarding timing and duration. |
| 2026-08-13 | Bearish lean | 0.68 | I have shifted to a slightly negative stance. The driver is the new non-price evidence provided by arc125 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): the extreme net short position at the 10y futures by CFTC and large actual net redemptions from IEF (approximately $4B, ~9% AUM) since early August, which constitute a persistent supply/sell pressure tending to push up long-end Treasury yields and depress IEF. Despite arc156 (BoJ)'s cold NFP and auction demand providing temporary support for duration, this bullish evidence has been offset by concurrent sell pressure from liquidity and speculative positions; the price front is not marked as fully factored in (price_in_flagged=False). |
| 2026-08-12 | Mixed | 0.52 | I have changed my previously bullish stance to 'mixed' because the arc125 (fed_2026_rate_cycle), which had been a primary support, has been removed/closed, losing its leading non-price evidence of policy easing. Current information presents opposing non-price chains: arc156 pointing to weaker-than-expected NFP and auction demand suggesting a path for policy rate reduction, supporting downward pressure on intermediate yields; but arc488 (and reported flows by arc156) revealing large net redemptions and CFTC extreme net short positions in 10y, constituting direct selling pressure and supply-side pressures that offset dovish transmission. The conclusion is a tug-of-war of signals with uncertain evidence, maintaining mixed sentiment with moderate confidence awaiting the next clear non-price evidence. |
| 2026-08-11 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a bullish stance on IEF. The primary driver comes from arc125's non-price evidence: significantly cold US non-farm payrolls (NFP -23k, σ≈-1.5) and an implied path down for Fed-funds futures (≈3.63%), forming a causal chain of policy easing -> downward pressure on mid-yields -> IEF rise. Conflicting evidence from arc156 and arc488 reports on funding/position pressures (actual net redemption of IEF -$4,090M and CFTC's extreme net short position on 10y) represents independent non-price counter-evidence that lowers confidence and may limit upside or lead to a faster retracement. |
| 2026-08-10 | Bullish lean | 0.66 | Maintain a bullish stance on IEF for 1-3 months. Mainly based on the non-price evidence provided by arc125 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): significant coldness in US non-farm payrolls (NFP -23k, σ≈-1.5) and a downward shift in the implied federal funds rate path (≈3.63%), forming a causal chain for interest rate declines/longer duration; arc156 (BoJ/Yen Normalization) adds evidence of robust auction demand (bid-to-cover ratio ≈ 2.84 for the last three 30Y auctions) and potential liquidity/fx support between Japan and the US, reinforcing the bullish case. Notable limitations/counterarguments: arc156 indicates price_in=True (partially priced in by the market in the short term), and CFTC data shows extreme net shorts on the ten-year note (treasury_10y net ≈ -2,231,670 contracts) as a strong structural opposition force that may become an upward catalyst but limit confidence going forward. |
| 2026-08-09 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a bullish bias for IEF in the 1-3 month timeframe, primarily supported by non-price evidence from arc156 (BoJ/Yen normalization) and arc125 (Fed rate cycle to 2026): recent weak US non-farm payrolls (NFP -23k, σ≈-1.5), a in market-implied federal funds rates, and strong demand for Treasury auctions form the causal chain for interest rate declines/longer duration gains. However, two points should be noted to limit confidence: first, arc156 indicates price_in=True (part of the short-term trend is already reflected in the market); second, CFTC data showing extreme net shorts in the ten-year Treasury (treasury_10y net ≈ -2.23M) serves as a strong structural counter-argument and may become a catalyst for upward risk in the future. |
| 2026-08-08 | Bullish lean | 0.70 | Maintain a bullish stance on IEF for the 1-3 month period. The main driver is arc156 (BoJ Yen Normalization): potential provision of US dollar backstop/intervention tools by the US or other countries to Japan, which would provide supply-side relief—should this materialize, it could reduce pressure on Japan to sell US Treasuries, potentially lowering mid-yields. Non-price evidence for this arc includes strong bid-to-cover ratios in recent auctions (≈2.84) and a significantly weaker-than-expected US non-farm payroll (-23k, σ≈-1.5). Arc125 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle, albeit decaying) adds structural support to the implied interest rate path; arc488 is nascent/contested and fails to overturn the bullish conclusion. No trading direction has been marked as fully 'price_in'. |
| 2026-08-07 | Bullish lean | 0.65 | Maintain a positive bias on IEF for the 1-3 month period, primarily based on the recent confirmation evidence from arc156 (BoJ Yen Normalization): if the US provides dollar backstops/lending facilities to Japan/yen authorities, it could reduce the supply-side pressure on Japan to sell US Treasuries, which would be beneficial for lowering long-end yields and supporting duration assets via non-price channels. Counter-evidence comes from arc125/141 (Fed and ECB's hawkish pricing and CFTC's extreme net short positions on 10Y), which are important non-price counterpoints but currently in a decaying state with lower weight/freshness compared to arc156, thus merely limiting confidence rather than overturning the bullish conclusion. Overall, maintain a lean positive bias because arc156 represents a new and confirmed non-price supply shock path that enhances the relative credibility of the bullish stance. |
| 2026-08-06 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | IEF is biased towards a bullish position over the next 1-3 months, primarily driven by recent confirming evidence from arc156 (BoJ Yen Normalization): if the US expands or utilizes its backstop lending facilities to Japan, it would reduce the supply-side pressure on Japan to sell Treasuries, thereby alleviating external supply shocks to long-term yields and benefiting duration assets (IEF). I also note that non-price counter-evidence from arc125/141 (CFTC extreme net short position in 10Y and hawkish implied rate path) still exists, providing a valid hedging rationale. Therefore, confidence is limited to mid-high levels. Given that arc156 is recent (days_since_event=0) and state=confirming, the bullish judgment is supported by fresh directional non-price evidence; however, if this tool is not actually used or direct counter-evidence emerges, one should reconsider their stance. |
| 2026-08-05 | Bearish lean | 0.66 | Maintain a bearish stance on IEF for the 1-3 month period, primarily driven by non-price quantitative evidence provided by arc125 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): continuous substantial net short positions in 10Y futures from CFTC (approximately -2,155,739 contracts), market-implied federal funds rate around 3.78%, and term premium of about 0.84% collectively form the chain of reasoning 'market pricing bias towards hawkishness -> upward pressure on long-end yields -> duration under stress'. Although arc141 (ECB) shows a declining trend, it still supports the structural argument in the same direction; meanwhile, arc156 indicates supportive liquidity conditions (IEF net inflows of +$84M since 7/23 and strong bid-to-cover ratios for recent 2y auctions), which are positive but defensive signals that constrain overall confidence. The price has not been deemed fully factored in (price_in flagged=False), so with conflicting policy/signaling evidence and divergent supply-demand indicators, maintain a moderately high-confidence bearish stance. |
| 2026-08-04 | Bearish lean | 0.66 | Maintain a bearish stance on IEF for the 1-3 month period, primarily due to the concurrence of non-price quantitative evidence from arc125 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and arc141 (ECB Eurozone Rate Cycle): CFTC’s persistent large net short positions in 10Y futures (-2,155,739 contracts), an implied Fed-funds rate above 3.80%, and the eurozone CPI rising to 2.9% as reported by Eurostat, collectively supporting structural risks of term premium (≈0.84%) and upward pressure on long-end rates. Counterarguments mainly stem from arc488 (BoE UK Gilt Cycle), which suggests that BoE’s marginal easing could compress the term premium and support duration. Additionally, bond market liquidity signals, such as strong demand for short-term auctions and minor net redemptions in IEF, limit the upper bound of confidence. Therefore, take a bearish stance but with cautious positioning, with moderate to high confidence. |
| 2026-08-03 | Bearish lean | 0.72 | Maintain a bearish bias on IEF for the 1-3 month period, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 141 (ECB Eurozone interest rate cycle): Eurostat reported that eurozone CPI rose to 2.9% in July, and there was a significant net short position (-2,155,739 contracts) on the 10Y futures according to CFTC, indicating structural risks of central bank bias towards and upward pressure on long-term interest rates. Secondary support comes from arc 125 (Fed path decay but still bearish), which aligns its implied rate path with the net short position and is consistent with a term premium of approximately 0.84%, enhancing the probability of duration pressure. Counterarguments come from arc 488 (BoE shift, initial bullish arguments) and arc 156 indicating bond funding/auction demand support, which limits confidence levels and thus suggests limited positions with ongoing monitoring of auction and funding signals. |
| 2026-08-02 | Bearish lean | 0.68 | Maintain a bearish bias on IEF for the next 1-3 months, with the primary driver being the latest non-price evidence from arc 141 (ECB eurozone interest rate cycle): Eurostat reported a rise in July eurozone CPI to 2.9%, and CFTC showed significant net short positions in 10Y futures (-2,155,739 contracts) with term premiums of approximately 0.84%. These structural signals increase the likelihood of sustained central bank hawkishness and upward pressure on long-term rates, thereby exerting downward pressure on duration. Secondary support comes from arc 125 (Fed path, albeit attenuated but still bearish), while opposing views come from arc 488 (BoE shift, with small weight and preliminary argument) and some market demand signals (strong bond auction demand, net inflows in the short term). These non-price liquidity/demand indicators limit confidence increases and suggest that bears should manage their positions. In summary: Multiple high-quality non-price evidences, particularly the CFTC/CPI/term premium chain from arc 141, keep me bearish, but due to market demand and some opposing views, confidence is moderately high. |
| 2026-08-01 | Bearish lean | 0.65 | Overall, we remain bearish on IEF for a 1-3 month horizon. The primary driver is non-price evidence from arc 141 (ECB eurozone interest rate cycle): CFTC net short positions in 10y futures at approximately -2.06M, high 10-year real rates and term premiums, as well as ECB wage tracker signals pointing to wage/inflation pressures, which structurally support upward pressure on long-term rates and put pressure on duration. However, caution is warranted given the significant decline in inflation expectations from ECB consumer surveys during the same period of arc 141, which weakens the certainty of sustained hawkishness; and while arc 488 (BoE pivot) represents a small opposing view, arc 125 has weakened and failed to clearly bias, thus confidence is slightly reduced but remains bearish. |
| 2026-07-31 | Bearish lean | 0.74 | Maintain a bearish stance on IEF, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 141 (ECB/Eurozone interest rate cycle): CFTC net short position in 10Y futures at -2.06M contracts, high 10-year real yields and term premiums, and the ECB's wage tracker pointing to persistent wage pressures with a high probability of the ECB maintaining an hawkish stance (pred_mkt≈0.98), all supporting upward pressure on long-term rates and putting stress on duration. Arc 156 (BoJ normalization) serves as secondary confirmation for global rate increases, but its quantitative snapshot also shows net redemptions in IEF with a flattening short-end implied path, which supports actual bond demand and reduces single-sided certainty. Overall, driven by non-price quantitative signals with downstream price/redemption flows as constraints, maintain a bearish but not extreme position. |
| 2026-07-30 | Bearish lean | 0.74 | Maintain a bearish stance on IEF, primarily driven by arc 141 (ECB/Eurozone interest rate cycle): non-price evidence shows CFTC net short positions in 10y futures at -2.06M contracts, U.S. 10-year yield approximately 4.65%, and term premium around 0.84%. Additionally, the ECB's wage tracker points to ongoing wage pressures, supporting a hawkish stance by the ECB and pushing up global long-term interest rates, thereby pressuring duration (IFT down). Arc 156 (BoJ normalization) serves as secondary confirmation, further supporting the structural chain of rising global interest rates. Contrary non-price evidence (recent net redemptions into IEF, declining implied short-end rate path, etc.) weakens certainty; thus, confidence remains at mid-high levels but not extreme. price_in is marked as False, indicating that the primary structural signals have yet to be fully priced in. |
| 2026-07-29 | Bearish lean | 0.68 | 维持对 IEF 的偏空（做空久期）判断，驱动来自 arc 141（ECB/欧元区利率周期）的非价格证据：CFTC/COT 对 10Y 持续深度净空（≈-2.06M 手）、美国十年期与期限溢价维持高位（10Y≈4.65%、TP≈0.78%）以及欧区服务业 PMI 的偏热信号，这些结构性信号支持长期收益率上行。arc 156（BoJ 正常化）作为次要确认同向支持。需要指出的制约性非价格证据包括 arc 141 自身提到的 7 月银行放贷调查显示中度收紧、以及若干 arc 报告的 ETF 净申赎流入与隐含短端利率路径下行，这些因素削弱确定性；price_in 标记均为 False，表明主要结构性信号尚未被完全计入价格，因此在保留偏空方向的同时将置信度略低于此前但仍 ≥0.60。 |
| 2026-07-28 | Bearish lean | 0.84 | Maintain a bearish view on IEF (1-3 months). The judgment primarily relies on the new tradable non-price evidence provided by CFTC/COT (10y) showing persistent deep net short positions (-2.06M contracts), significantly better-than-expected Eurozone services PMI (σ=2.7), and high term premiums (≈0.78%), which support upward long-term yields and put pressure on duration. Arc 156 (BoJ normalization expectations) serves as a secondary confirmation to further widen the path for interest rate increases, while Arc 225, although in recession, still provides slight support; no arc is marked with price_in, so the position confidence will not be downgraded to 'absorbed by prices'. |
| 2026-07-27 | Bearish lean | 0.82 | 维持对 IEF（1–3 个月）偏空。主要由 arc 141 提供的非价格量化证据驱动：COT/10y 持仓深度净空（≈ -2.06M 手）与欧元区服务业 PMI 明显超预期（σ=2.7），再加上 FRED 显示的高位期限溢价（≈0.78%），共同指向久期承压与长期利率上行。arc 156（BoJ 正常化预期）作为确认性支持，若 BoJ 解除利率锚定将进一步放大这一通道；arc 225 虽然处于衰退态势但仍提供附加的持仓面空头证据。未见任一关键弧标注为“price_in=true”，且 arc 141 为近期（days_since_event≤7）的可操作信号，故维持偏空判断。 |
| 2026-07-26 | Bearish lean | 0.82 | Maintain a bearish stance on IEF (1-3 months). The driving factors come from the non-price quantitative evidence of arcs 141 and 156: CFTC/10Y positions remain deeply net short (approximately -2.06M to -2.08M contracts), eurozone services PMI significantly exceeded expectations (σ=2.7), and term premiums are maintaining high levels (≈0.78%). Additionally, BoJ normalization expectations may remove the downward anchor on global rates, all pointing towards duration pressure/long-term rate increases. Although arc 125 provides evidence of |