EWY iShares MSCI South Korea ETF
Bearish lean Confidence 0.40 Regime High-vol · off low
Maintain bearish stance. Primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 97 (Fed 2026 rate cycle) - the sustained upward movement of short and medium-term US Treasuries over the past 20 days in a macro environment that is slightly overheated, leading to a downward transmission through interest rates -> valuation to Korean exposure; as well as non-price evidence from arc 367 (US-China Tech Decoupling) regarding export control scenarios with pricing for downside protection on the option side (high put IV / skew), supporting the bearish logic. However, multiple arcs are price_in and have seen net redemptions since October 14, 2026 (indicating that some of the downward movement has already been priced in), along with arc 356/281 being in a contentious/recessionary state, which weakens confidence in entering positions. Therefore, maintain a bearish stance but reduce confidence.
30-day verdict history
| Date | Direction | Confidence | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Bearish lean | 0.40 | Maintain bearish stance. Primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 97 (Fed 2026 rate cycle) - the sustained upward movement of short and medium-term US Treasuries over the past 20 days in a macro environment that is slightly overheated, leading to a downward transmission through interest rates -> valuation to Korean exposure; as well as non-price evidence from arc 367 (US-China Tech Decoupling) regarding export control scenarios with pricing for downside protection on the option side (high put IV / skew), supporting the bearish logic. However, multiple arcs are price_in and have seen net redemptions since October 14, 2026 (indicating that some of the downward movement has already been priced in), along with arc 356/281 being in a contentious/recessionary state, which weakens confidence in entering positions. Therefore, maintain a bearish stance but reduce confidence. |
| 2026-10-21 | Bearish lean | 0.50 | Maintain a bearish stance. Primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 97 (Fed 2026 rate cycle): the recent upward movement in short and medium-term US Treasury yields, coupled with positive macro surprises related to US PPI, are putting real pressure on Korean/EM exposures; meanwhile, arc 367 (US-China Tech Decoupling) suggests an export control path that is reinforced by a bias towards buying puts at the option end (IV/skew), strengthening the industry-wide downward chain. Note that multiple arcs are marked with price_in and ETFs have seen net redemptions from October to April, indicating that some of the downside has already been priced in, so confidence remains moderate rather than high. If a tradable and non-price-confirming signal emerges in the future (such as more concrete implementation of export controls or sustained rate shocks), the direction could be upgraded. |
| 2026-10-20 | Bearish lean | 0.50 | Maintain a bearish stance. Primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 97 (Fed 2026 rate cycle): the recent upward movement in short and medium-term US Treasury yields, coupled with positive macro surprises for US PPI (σ=2.6), still pose a genuine pressure on Korean/ex-emerging market exposures. The new arc 367 (US-China Tech Decoupling) adds to industry-specific fundamental risks (the transmission of export controls to semiconductor and fabrication demand) as well as option skew/IV signals favoring downside bets, supporting short-term downside risks; however, it is important to note that all arcs are marked with price_in indicators and ETFs have seen net redemptions along with elevated IV levels, indicating that some of the downside has already been priced in, thus maintaining a moderate confidence level (<0.60). |
| 2026-10-19 | Bearish lean | 0.48 | Maintain a bearish stance. The main driver is the non-price evidence from arc 97 (Fed 2026 rate cycle): upward movement in short and medium-term US Treasuries over the past 20 days, positive macro surprise for US PPI (macro_surprise σ=2.6), and an excess_sigma of +0.61 for arc97, indicating that continued tight interest rates could pose a real pressure on Korea/EM exposures. It is important to note that the price_in signal, along with elevated option IV and recent net redemptions in ETFs, suggests that some of the downside has already been priced in, hence I am lowering my confidence. The other arcs (arc 356 and arc 281) currently lack specific non-price evidence for contention/recession or are in dispute, failing to reverse this direction. |
| 2026-10-18 | Bearish lean | 0.48 | I lean negative, primarily driven by arc 97 (Fed 2026 rate cycle) reactivating and providing clear non-price evidence: the recent 20-day uptrend in short to medium-term US Treasury yields alongside macro surprises (US PPI hot, macro_surprise σ=2.6) and an excess_sigma of +0.61 for arc 97 pointing towards sustained tighter rates, which will constitute a real pressure on Korea/EM exposures. However, all active arcs are marked with price_in_excess=True, and option IV has risen to high levels while ETFs have seen net redemptions over the past five days, indicating that some of the downside is already priced in and there is short-term liquidity cushioning. Therefore, I lower my confidence. In summary: a strong negative arc as the main driver with multiple controversial/recession arcs supporting it, leading to a moderate negative call (≈0.48). |
| 2026-10-17 | Neutral | 0.18 | Maintain a neutral stance. Both active arcs (arc 356: ECB rhythm; arc 281: Korean Peninsula/US-Korea geo-political tensions) are contested with very low confidence, and both have price_in_excess=True, indicating that the downside has already been priced in by the market. The non-price evidence provided by each arc is inconsistent—arc 356 predicts strong market expectations of ECB maintenance, with increased option IV but net redemption flows over the past five days, while arc 281 predicts a very low probability of conflict, with only high IV and upward US Treasury yields as background risks. Given that the previously supportive driving arc (arc 97: Fed_2026_rate_cycle) has been removed from active arcs, the previous interest rate-liquidity causal chain can no longer support a bearish conclusion; thus, it is changed to neutral with low confidence. |
| 2026-10-16 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a bearish stance – driven by arc 97 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): It provides non-price quantitative evidence (recent 20-day rise in US Treasury yields, net outflows over the past 30 days, and increased option volatility/premiums), which constitutes an “interest rate hike -> valuation compression -> capital outflow” downward transmission for EWY. Note that this bearish signal has been partially priced into the market (arc 97's price_in_excess is marked as True), and other relevant arcs (arcs 356/614) are mostly diminishing with controversial arguments, thus confidence is moderately constrained. Given the current risk profile is mixed and SPY 20d is up, this bearish conclusion relies on arc 97's specific interest rate and liquidity mechanisms rather than just price momentum alone. |
| 2026-10-15 | Bearish lean | 0.55 | Overall, we maintain a bearish stance on EWY. The driving force for this change is arc 97 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): this arc represents a recent actionable dynamic (days_since_event≈4) and provides non-price quantitative evidence – an upward trend in US Treasury yields over the past 20 days coupled with net outflows from the ETF over the past 30 days, forming a downward transmission of 'interest rate hikes -> valuation compression -> capital outflow'. It is important to note that multiple arcs have their price_in already marked (part of the downside has been priced in by the market), and arcs such as arc 356 (ECB) still provide inhibitory or neutral signals, thus keeping confidence moderately low. |
| 2026-10-14 | Mixed | 0.24 | Maintain a neutral stance. Non-price leading indicators remain offsetting: arc 97 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) provides a quantifiable downward channel – with U.S. Treasury yields rising over the past 20 days and net redemptions from EWY at approximately -5.8% AUM; arc 356 (ECB Eurozone Rate Cycle) mitigates the single-sided downside risk due to hawkish ECB by predicting a high probability of no change in the market. It is important to note that the price_in marker and significant price_in_excess for arc 614 indicate that some downward pressure has already been factored into the market, thus not warranting increased confidence; overall, there are no actionable arcs with non-price confirmatory signals, and evidence remains conflicting, insufficient to support high-confidence one-way positions. |
| 2026-10-13 | Mixed | 0.26 | 维持观望（mixed）。以 arc 97（Fed 2026 Rate Cycle）和 arc 356（ECB Eurozone Rate Cycle）为主的非价格证据驱动判断：arc 97 指出美国利率近20日上行并伴随资金面撤出（EWY 30d 净申赎 ≈ -6.06% AUM），构成对韩国权益的下行压力；arc 356 的预测市场显示 ECB 很可能“维持不变”（p≈0.91），削弱了单边鹰派传导的明确性，两者互相抵消。注意部分下行已被标注为 price_in（见 arc 97 与 arc 614），且期权 ATM IV 处于低位，说明市场已计入部分风险，因此不宜开立高置信度单边仓位，保持混合/观望立场。 |
| 2026-10-12 | Mixed | 0.28 | Maintain a mixed stance. Based on the interest rate upward channel indicated by arc 97 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and arcs 103 (BoJ / Yen Arc) with multiple arcs providing liquidity evidence (net redemptions of approximately -6% AUM in the past 30 days, recent net outflows), these non-price quantitative signals support a bearish bias for EWY. However, no specific tradeable |
| 2026-10-11 | Mixed | 0.30 | Based on arcs 97/103/356, multiple curves provide consistent non-price evidence pointing to weakness: a net redemption outflow of approximately -6.9% AUM over the past 30 days, and an extremely low ATM IV historical percentile (0-7%), indicating that fund withdrawal is occurring but the market has not significantly bought down protection. Arc 356 predicts a high probability (0.90) of the ECB maintaining its current stance, weakening the one-sided causal chain of 'persistent hawkish bias -> cross-border capital outflow -> pressure on EWY'. At the same time, the price_in marked by arcs 97/103 has been triggered, signaling that some downside is already priced in and caution should be exercised when establishing new one-sided positions. Conclusion: Maintain a mixed (watchful) stance, not shifting to a clear bullish or bearish position, with confidence maintained at 0.30 (based on the aforementioned non-price evidence and priced-in indicators). |
| 2026-10-10 | Mixed | 0.30 | Overall: Multiple arcs consistently point to weakness, with net redemptions of approximately -6.9% AUM over the past 30 days (see arc 97/103/356) and multiple arcs showing partial price realization, but no arc provides a 'matching' non-price trigger (such as clear central bank foreign exchange intervention, JGB/JPY COT jumps, or new policy texts) to shift the narrative into a tradable one-sided direction. The high probability of the market pricing in an unchanged ECB (arc 356) and low IV/Skew levels (arcs 356/103/97) suggest that downside pressure has been largely absorbed by prices or positions (i.e., partially priced-in), so one should not increase one-sided confidence. Conclusion: Maintain a mixed watchful stance, slightly lowering confidence to 0.30, with key reference arcs being 356, 103, and 97; no single new arc is driving a shift yet. |
| 2026-10-09 | Mixed | 0.33 | Maintain a mixed stance. The main reason is that no arc provides a confirmed non-price trigger to support a one-sided direction: Arc 356's prediction market still shows the ECB likely to hold rates unchanged in October (≈0.90), which weakens the transmission of 'ECB bias hawkish -> cross-border capital outflow -> significant decline for EWY'. Meanwhile, the non-price evidence reported by Arcs 97/103 (net redemptions of about -7.0% AUM in the past 30 days) does indicate pressure on fund outflows, but these outflows have already been partially reflected in prices (as seen by the price_in_excess marker in Arc 97/103), and IV/Skew levels in options do not show a premium for systemic downside protection. Therefore, it is not advisable to take one-sided positions or significantly increase confidence; continue to maintain a mixed stance. |
| 2026-10-08 | Mixed | 0.36 | Maintain a mixed stance. The main driver is the prediction in arc 356 (ECB) of a high probability (>0.90) of no change in October, which weakens the transmission chain from 'continued ECB hawkishness -> cross-border capital outflows -> significant decline for EWY'. Meanwhile, non-price evidence reported by several arcs, such as arcs 97/103/281, indicates a net redemption of approximately -6.9% AUM over 30 days and suggests there is indeed pressure for capital withdrawal, but these downside risks are marked as price_in in some arcs (indicating partial incorporation into prices), and the option market's IV/Skew does not show evidence of demand for further downside protection. Given the lack of confirmatory non-price triggers currently (such as a significant move in JPY/JGB or actual intervention by ECB/BoJ), it is premature to take a one-sided view or increase confidence levels. |
| 2026-10-07 | Mixed | 0.36 | Maintain a mixed stance. Mainly based on non-price evidence: arc 356 (ECB) predicts a high probability of no change in October at 0.94, which weakens the transmission chain from 'ECB persistently hawkish -> cross-border capital outflow -> significant decline for EWY'. Arcs 97/103 (Fed/BoJ) still lack corresponding evidence for yen/JGB intervention or quantitative easing, so Fed or BoJ events cannot be translated into clear one-sided positions on the yen or Japanese stocks. There is indeed a net redemption pressure of approximately -6.5% AUM over the past 30 days, but option IV and skew do not indicate that the market is buying protection for downside risks. Some arcs are marked as price_in, suggesting that some declines have already been factored into the market or liquidity conditions. Additionally, systemic liquidity remains positive (Fed net liquidity around $5.8T), which does not support a higher confidence in one-sided directional bets. |
| 2026-10-06 | Mixed | 0.36 | Maintain a ‘mixed’ stance: non-price quantitative evidence does not provide consistent support for one-sided bullish or bearish positions. The key driver is arc 356 (ECB) – with a forecasted probability of no change in October at 0.94, weakening the transmission from 'ECB bias hawkish -> capital outflow -> EWY downside'. Meanwhile, arcs 97/103 (Fed/BoJ) still lack quantifiable evidence for JPY/JGB intervention or yen/rate-driven positions. There is substantial net outflow of funds over 30 days (≈-6.5% AUM, as seen in arc 97/281), but option IV and skew indicate that downside protection has not been heavily bought. Several arcs (356, 281, 97) marked 'price_in' suggest that some of the downside is already priced into the market, thus confidence remains at a low level without changing direction. |
| 2026-10-05 | Mixed | 0.36 | Maintain a ‘mixed’ stance: there is no consistent one-sided signal across the arcs on non-price quantitative evidence, which does not support establishing clear long or short positions. Key non-price drivers include arc 356's predictive market (ECB October unchanged probability p=0.94), which weakens the transmission of 'ECB bias hawkish -> capital outflow -> EWY downside'; meanwhile, arcs 103/97 do not provide quantifiable evidence for JPY/JGB or BoJ/Fed intervention. The funding and option surfaces are also split – 30-day net redemptions continue to show net outflows (≈-6.5% AUM) supporting selling pressure, but the ATM IV historical percentile is only ~20% and put-call skew is more negative, indicating that the market has not massively bought downside protection; additionally, note that arc 356 is marked as price_in (short-term prices already reflect some risk), hence confidence should be cautiously lowered. |
| 2026-10-04 | Mixed | 0.38 | Maintain a 'mixed' conclusion: no consistent one-sided signal on non-price quantitative evidence (BoJ, ECB, Fed, and tariff arcs are contested) is sufficient to establish clear long or short positions. Key non-price drivers include: arc 356's predictive market shows a 94% probability of the ECB maintaining its stance in October, weakening the 'ECB bias hawkish -> capital outflow -> EWY decline' transmission; no quantifiable evidence of JPY/JGB or BoJ/Fed intervention is observed on arcs 103/97 for directional bets; meanwhile, unified liquidity metrics show a net redemption of -6.52% AUM over 30 days and an ATM IV at around the 20th percentile, neither supporting high-confidence one-sided views. Additionally, arc 356 has been marked as price_in (price_in_excess significantly), indicating that some downward expectations have already been absorbed by prices, thus lowering confidence to a moderate level. |
| 2026-10-03 | Mixed | 0.40 | Maintain a 'Mixed' conclusion: All three main arcs (BoJ cycle, Fed cycle, and US-EU tariffs) show contested/uncertain signals. There is no consistent and corroborative non-price evidence to support a one-sided position. Arc 103 (BoJ) lacks verifiable policy/JGB/yen intervention evidence, and it is marked as price_in (with price_in_excess significantly indicating that some downside has already been priced in), thus cannot drive new short positions. The non-price evidence for Arc 97 (net redemptions over the past 30 days ≈ -6.52% AUM while Fed net liquidity remains high) together with the non-price evidence for Arc 614 (no substantive tariff/export control actions, low option IV/percentiles) create conflicting evidence, maintaining a watchful/mixed judgment and lowering confidence. |
| 2026-10-02 | Mixed | 0.44 | Maintain a 'Mixed' conclusion: non-price evidence is conflicting and insufficient to establish a one-sided position. Driving non-price evidence from arc 356 (ECB link): net redemptions since 2026-09-22 of -$151M, -6.37% AUM over the past 30 days, indicating downside sensitivity for EWY, but this arc is marked as price_in (prices are partially reflected), and the positive impact of renminbi appreciation on export data offsets some of its negative transmission, reducing the certainty of a short position. Arcs 103 (BoJ normalization) and 97 (Fed-related) are contested and lack corresponding policy/JGB/JPY real-time quantitative confirmations, thus providing insufficient opposing confirmation signals—overall maintaining a mixed view with low to medium confidence (0.44). |
| 2026-10-01 | Mixed | 0.46 | Maintain a 'Mixed' conclusion: Non-price evidence is divergent and insufficient to establish one-sided positions. Arc 356 (ECB/Eurozone Rate Linkage) provides empirical downward evidence – net redemptions of -$151M in actual terms from 2026-09-22, -6.37% AUM over the past 30 days – but this arc is marked as price_in (partially incorporated into the market) and is offset by positive effects from renminbi appreciation and export data. Arc 614 (USM tariffs path) remains nascent, providing limited policy bullishness with no new confirmatory actions. Arc 103 (BoJ normalization) lacks corresponding policy/JGB shifts evidence, maintaining a watchful stance. Given the divergent non-price evidence supporting and countering each other, as well as both potential trading directions (short on 356, long on 614) facing either partial incorporation or insufficient evidence, maintain a mixed approach with controlled positions over the short to medium term, with moderate-low confidence, awaiting new, clear non-price validating events. |
| 2026-09-30 | Mixed | 0.48 | Maintain a 'Mixed' stance: the non-price support provided by arc 614 (policy signals of easing trade/tariff paths between Europe and the US) constitutes a structural bullish argument for EWY, but the evidence of real net redemptions disclosed in arc 356 (net outflows of -$151M since 2026-09-22, -6.37% AUM over the past 30 days) still represents a significant downside risk. Additionally, the price_in indicator for arcs 356/103 suggests that some risks have already been priced into the market, and low option IV levels reduce confidence in establishing one-sided positions. Therefore, maintain a neutral mixed stance until new, clear non-price validating events emerge, while controlling position sizes and awaiting further evidence. |
| 2026-09-29 | Mixed | 0.46 | The overall judgment is 'Mixed'. The key factor that prompted my re-evaluation was arc 614 (eu_us_tariff_dispute): the Xi-Trump meeting and subsequent policy easing reduced the short-term probability of sudden trade/export controls, complemented by a positive surprise in the German Ifo business climate index (σ=+1.1) and high systemic liquidity from the Fed ($5,770B), providing structural non-price support for EWY; however, arc 356's disclosed net redemptions (from 2026-09-22: -$151M; past 30 days: -6.37% AUM) still pose downside risks, and the price_in flag=True in arcs 356/103 indicates that these risks are partially priced into the market. Low option IV historical percentile and weak inflows limit the confidence of any one-sided conclusion, thus maintaining a neutral to slightly bullish stance with “priced-in” |
| 2026-09-27 | Bearish lean | 0.42 | Maintain a bearish stance on EWY, primarily based on non-price evidence from arc 356 (ECB_eurozone_rate_cycle): net redemptions turned negative starting from 2026-09-18 ($505M, about -1.90% AUM; cumulative -6.31% AUM over 30 days), supporting the transmission chain of 'policy/rate path -> capital outflow -> ETF under pressure'. Meanwhile, arc 97 (Fed_2026_rate_cycle) indicates a slight decline in net liquidity against the backdrop of recently hawkish FOMC meetings, providing further non-price support for downside. However, given that multiple arcs are in decaying states, prices have partially factored in this risk (price_in flag=True), and option IV/Skew has not significantly reflected panic, confidence is limited to medium-low with a caution that momentum/price may already be discounting some risks. |
| 2026-09-26 | Bearish lean | 0.50 | Based on the true net redemptions disclosed by arc 356 (ECB) and the ongoing capital outflows and slight reduction in net liquidity indicated by arc 97 (Fed/liquidity), non-price evidence still leans towards a medium-term downward transmission for EWY, thus maintaining a bearish stance. Note that these downward forces have been partially realized (multiple arcs marked with price_in=True), and most states are decaying, with option IV/Skew not significantly indicating panic. Therefore, confidence is limited to low-medium, and weak supportive evidence is noted. |
| 2026-09-25 | Bearish lean | 0.56 | Maintain a negative bias towards EWY. The rationale is primarily based on non-price evidence from multiple arcs, particularly the net redemptions of arc 356 (ECB) reports and the ongoing outflows in arcs 97 / 367 (net outflow over 30 days at an ~6-7% AUM level), forming a |
| 2026-09-24 | Bearish lean | 0.64 | Maintain a negative bias towards EWY. The decisive driver comes from arc 356 (ECB Eurozone Rate Cycle): there is a quantifiable non-price transmission chain – with the ECB’s hawkish expectations accompanying real redemptions net outflows (approximately -$1,147M, 30-day -7.32% AUM) – which forms a downside basis for the ETF. Other arcs such as arc 97 and arc 367 provide auxiliary support but are mostly decaying or contested, with multiple arcs marked price_in=True indicating that some of the downside has already been priced in, making a short-term price rebound the main contradiction point; given the current risk appetite rebounding environment, the bias remains centered on the non-price flow evidence from arc 356, thus setting confidence at moderately high (0.64). |
| 2026-09-23 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a negative bias towards EWY. The primary driver is the non-price evidence provided by arc 356 (ECB Eurozone Rate Cycle): recent net redemptions of approximately -$1,147M (≈-4.23% AUM) and ongoing AUM decline form a quantifiable chain from policy to fund flows to ETF performance; arcs 97 (Fed/hawkish FOMC signals) and 367 (US-China/Supply Chain Uncertainty) provide supplementary negative arguments but are mostly decaying. It should be noted that price signals are mixed, and some risks have already been reflected in the market: several arcs (such as arc 97/103/367) indicate price_in=True (short-term components are included), while arc 356 recently showed a short-term price rebound with positive price_in_excess. Therefore, confidence is set to medium-high to reflect both confirmed negative factors and the risk of 'already priced in' or short-term reversals. |
| 2026-09-21 | Bearish lean | 0.36 | Maintain a bearish stance, primarily based on the non-price chain provided by arc 356 (ECB Eurozone Rate Cycle): the hawkish policy shock since September 11, 2026, leading to substantial net redemptions (-$1,176M, 30-day -6.46% AUM) on September 16, 2026, constitutes quantifiable evidence of fund withdrawal and tightening financial conditions, supporting a bearish outlook for EWY. Other major arcs (arc 97, 367, 103, 592) are mostly decaying or contested and lack new non-price confirmation signals, thus failing to elevate the confidence level. Noting that multiple arcs have been price_in annotated in terms of trading direction (indicating some downside risks have already been absorbed by prices), and with very low historical option IV percentiles, confidence remains at a moderate to low level. |