QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq-100)
Bullish lean Confidence 0.68 Regime Mid-vol
Maintain a lean positive view on QQQ for the medium to short term (lean_positive). Mainly supported by non-price quantitative evidence from arcs #547 (RBA) and arc #2 (Fed): continuous large net inflows of redemptions (in the tens of billions since early August), CFTC net shorts contracting from extreme levels (-89k -> -61.8k), and low option IV / VXN indicating upward momentum from allocation and potential short covering; arc #476 (Latin America) strengthens demand-side evidence through fund flows and semiconductor spot recoveries. Notable constraints include several decaying/contested arcs (such as #146, #193) showing that relative weakness has been reflected in prices (price_in annotation), and a short-term window quantification from arc #2 (excess_sigma=-0.31) indicating short-term price pressure; thus, confidence remains moderate to high but not extreme.
30-day verdict history
| Date | Direction | Confidence | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Bullish lean | 0.68 | Maintain a lean positive view on QQQ for the medium to short term (lean_positive). Mainly supported by non-price quantitative evidence from arcs #547 (RBA) and arc #2 (Fed): continuous large net inflows of redemptions (in the tens of billions since early August), CFTC net shorts contracting from extreme levels (-89k -> -61.8k), and low option IV / VXN indicating upward momentum from allocation and potential short covering; arc #476 (Latin America) strengthens demand-side evidence through fund flows and semiconductor spot recoveries. Notable constraints include several decaying/contested arcs (such as #146, #193) showing that relative weakness has been reflected in prices (price_in annotation), and a short-term window quantification from arc #2 (excess_sigma=-0.31) indicating short-term price pressure; thus, confidence remains moderate to high but not extreme. |
| 2026-08-23 | Bullish lean | 0.68 | Maintain a positive bias for QQQ in the short to medium term, primarily due to quantifiable bullish support from arcs #547 (RBA) and arc #2 (Fed): arc #547 indicates significant net redemptions (+$15,845M) starting from August 3, 2026, a convergence of COT net shorts from ~-89k to -61,771, and low IV/VXN levels, suggesting that funding conditions and position structures are supporting the bullish stance; arc #2 reinforces arguments about high systemic liquidity (WALCL-TGA-RRP=$5,792B) and low market expectations for further rate hikes. Notable contradictions and constraints: the short-term quantitative pressure indicated by excess_sigma=-0.31 in arc #2's quant analysis challenges its bullish narrative, and several decaying or contested arcs still point to historical shorts and crowding (accumulated COT/FINRA shorts), thus maintaining a positive bias but with moderate confidence and not a full- position. |
| 2026-08-22 | Bullish lean | 0.66 | Maintaining a tilt towards bullish from 'mixed', primarily due to substantial improvement in arc #547 (RBA Australia Rate Cycle) on non-price evidence: COT net shorts have converged from ~-89k to -61,771, and there has been significant net buying (+$15,845M) since 2026-08-03 along with low IV, reducing the constraints of the previous 'extreme net short -> squeeze/reversal' argument. Arc #2 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) also provides independent non-price support (indicating low bets on further rate hikes and high systemic liquidity), both arcs providing quantifiable bullish support for the near to medium term; however, there are several decaying/contested arcs (old COT extreme data, rising short positions) that pose hedging risks, hence a 'bullish' rather than strong bullish stance is taken. |
| 2026-08-21 | Mixed | 0.58 | Maintain a 'mixed' conclusion. The bullish side is driven by non-price evidence from arc #2 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): market bets on further rate hikes are declining, and systemic liquidity remains large, consistent with the chain of transmission to growth stocks; meanwhile, arc #547 (RBA) and physical/fund flow data (QQQ net large redemptions of +$15,845M from 2026-08-03) provide short-term liquidity support. Conversely, several strong non-price contrarian pieces of evidence – CFTC (Nasdaq) net positions heavily bearish (-89,125 contracts) and rising short stock numbers at FINRA – constitute significant hedging/congestion risks, and most other arcs remain decaying/contested, so a one-sided call is not advisable overall. |
| 2026-08-20 | Mixed | 0.58 | Maintain mixed. The non-price evidence driving the long position comes from Arc #2 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): market and macro data predict a reduced probability of interest rate hikes (pred_mkt ≈0.39), and this arc indicates that the chain of weak liquidity and macro data remains; however, multiple non-price evidence for the long position/liquidity (CFTC Nasdaq net positions -89,125, rising short positions at FINRA, and significant net redemptions starting from 2026-08-03) appear in several arcs, forming strong contradictory evidence and crowded/hedging risks. Most other arcs remain decaying/contested or nascent (e.g., Arc #547 is slightly bullish but nascent), with no single arc providing new quantitative non-price evidence sufficient to alter the overall direction, hence maintaining a mixed stance. |
| 2026-08-19 | Mixed | 0.58 | Maintain mixed. The driver for the long side is Arc #2 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle): its non-price evidence—July retail sales significantly weakening, market predictions of reduced probability of rate hikes, and recent large net redemptions—still supports a revised interest rate path that benefits growth/tech; however, several institutional position/side signals (CFTC Nasdaq net positions extremely bearish -89,125, low historical option IV percentile with low volatility zones, and signs of redemption/investment crowding) as well as some fading controversial arcs (#146/#193/#484) constitute substantial downward momentum or risk of crowding, making a one-sided call difficult. Given the significant divergences in all non-price evidence, maintain a mixed stance for the short term with moderate confidence (≈0.58). |
| 2026-08-18 | Mixed | 0.58 | Maintain a mixed stance: there are two verifiable non-price transmission chains in play recently, making it difficult to make a one-sided judgment. Arc #2 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle, days_since_event≈0) provides the latest and quantifiable non-price evidence—July retail sales significantly weakened (σ≈-2.8), increased market expectations of rate cuts/no further hikes, and large net redemptions, supporting a downward revision in the interest rate path and benefiting growth/tech sectors; conversely, Arc #261 (East Asia Semiconductor Supply Chain) presents substantial downside momentum with CFTC Nasdaq net speculative positions at -89,125 (at the 0th percentile) and FINRA short interest +9.2%. While Arc #476’s bullish argument supports the direction but is flagged as price_in, it should be partially discounted. Considering all non-price evidence, maintain a mixed stance with moderate confidence. |
| 2026-08-17 | Mixed | 0.56 | The conclusion remains mixed. Arc #2 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle, days_since_event=0) provides clear non-price evidence supporting the bulls: July retail sales showed a significant weakening (-0.6%, σ≈-2.8), indicating a decline in the probability of further rate hikes and suggesting a downward revision to the interest rate path, which is favorable for growth/tech stocks. Meanwhile, Arc #261 (East Asia Semiconductor Supply Chain, days_since_event=3) strongly offsets with non-price position evidence: CFTC Nasdaq net speculative positions expanded to -89,125, FINRA short holdings increased by +9.2%, and regulatory/supply chain uncertainties related to Apple/CXMT constitute substantial downward momentum. Both paths are recent (<=7 days) confirmatory signals that offset each other in direction, hence the conclusion is mixed with medium confidence (<0.60). |
| 2026-08-16 | Mixed | 0.55 | Arc #2 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) has recently shifted to confirming and provides non-price evidence: US retail sales are notably weak, with significant de-anchoring in market pricing for September rate hikes. This supports a downward revision of the medium-term (1-3 month) interest rate path, which is favorable for growth/tech and strengthens the case for long QQQ. However, Arc #261 (East Asia Semiconductor Supply Chain) still provides strong non-price position evidence and structural risk signals (CFTC Nasdaq net speculative positions at -89,125, FINRA short holdings at +9.2%, etc.), with these positions/structural pressures and regulatory uncertainty posing a substantial counter to the downside. The two paths have similar weights in quantitative non-price evidence and offset each other, resulting in a 'mixed' assessment with moderate confidence. |
| 2026-08-15 | Bearish lean | 0.64 | Tending to short QQQ in the medium term (1-3 months), primarily driven by the latest confirmation signal from arc #261 (east_asia_semi_supply_chain): non-price evidence shows CFTC Nasdaq net speculative positions deteriorating to -89,125 contracts and FINRA short interest rising +9.2% (days-to-cover=1.65), indicating accumulation of shorts at the institutional/hedge fund level. This arc also cites macro weakness such as a significantly cold US retail sales report, reinforcing downward momentum; although very low option IV may suppress short-term extreme volatility, it does not eliminate position pressure. The counter-argument for going long (arcs #2 and #476: CPI decline and weak NFP pointing to a more dovish rate path) does exist but is decaying in nature, with quantitative/position signals at the time point and weight insufficient compared to the immediate non-price evidence from arc #261. Additionally, some long positions are already partially reflected in prices, making them insufficient to offset the downward momentum provided by arc #261. |
| 2026-08-14 | Mixed | 0.48 | Maintain a mixed view: the non-price macro chain and position/regulatory chains offset each other, preventing a one-sided bet. The bullish push comes from non-price evidence provided by Arc#476/Arc#2 (recent CPI decline + weak NFP -> more dovish rate path); the bearish push is from non-price evidence provided by Arc#261 (CFTC net positions heavily net short and supply chain uncertainties heightened by China-related regulatory/penalty events). Note that the quantitative metrics of Arc#2 (excess_sigma=-0.30, weaken_streak=1) do not fully support its bullish conclusion, indicating a signal contradiction. Therefore, maintain low-to-moderate confidence and await further clear non-price evidence. |
| 2026-08-13 | Mixed | 0.45 | Maintain mixed conclusions: non-price evidence offsets each other and do not form a one-sided bet. The bullish non-price arguments come from arc #2 (Fed 2026 rate cycle): recent weak NFP readings (actual -23k, σ≈-1.5) support a more dovish interest rate path, which is relatively favorable for growth/tech; the bearish non-price arguments come from arc #261 (East Asia Semiconductor Supply Chain): CFTC net positions have deteriorated to -78,333 contracts and are accompanied by regulatory/sanction risks, providing substantial downward momentum. Note that price_in is marked as True for arc #193, indicating that some expectations have already been absorbed into prices. Additionally, the evidence line in arc #2 (excess_sigma=-0.30, weaken_streak=1) partially contradicts its bullish arguments at a quantitative level, hence maintaining a neutral to slightly low confidence level. |
| 2026-08-12 | Mixed | 0.50 | The conclusion is mixed: On one hand, arc #2 (US NFP weak reading actual -23k, σ≈-1.5) and arc #146 (Eur ) provide clear non-price macro evidence for a milder rate path, which is relatively favorable to growth/tech sectors; on the other hand, arc #261's CFTC net short (-78,333 contracts) and events related to supply chain issues with China and sanctions provide substantial positional and fundamental downside momentum, increasing downside risks. Additionally, note that arc #193 is marked price_in=True (part of the expectations have already been reflected in prices), which should lower confidence in one-sided bets. Overall, non-price evidence offsets each other, maintaining a mixed judgment with moderate confidence. |
| 2026-08-11 | Mixed | 0.50 | 维持 mixed 判断：一方面以弧#2（美国 NFP 弱读，actual −23k，σ≈−1.5）与弧#146（Eurosystem 偏鸽投影）为代表的非价格宏观证据倾向于降低加息概率、相对利好成长/科技；另一方面多条非价格持仓信号（以弧#261 所引用的 CFTC Nasdaq 净空 -78,333 及其近段加码、以及多弧揭示的低 IV 与上升空头股数）构成实质性对冲/下行动能。此外，弧#193 标注了 price_in=True（部分预期已被价格消化），因此多头利好可能已部分计入，难以形成单边押注。 |
| 2026-08-10 | Mixed | 0.50 | Maintain mixed judgment: there is clear non-price bullish support in the short term (as represented by arc #2, with weak US NFP readings – actual -23k, σ≈-1.5, reducing the likelihood of another rate hike soon and benefiting growth/tech), but at the same time, there are strong bearish indications from derivatives and positions (as exemplified by CFTC COT net shorts in extremely low percentiles reported in arcs #476/193). These two types of non-price evidence balance each other out, making it difficult to reach a unidirectional conclusion. Additionally, note that several arcs indicate that option IV is at low levels and some windows are marked with price_in=True, suggesting that certain expectations may already be priced in, so confidence should not be significantly increased. |
| 2026-08-09 | Mixed | 0.48 | Classified as 'mixed': On one hand, there is clear non-price bullish support – Arc #2 (Fed 2026 rate cycle, weak NFP reading -23k) reduces the likelihood of a recent rate hike, benefiting growth/tech; Arc #193 (BoJ/Yen) provides evidence of new policy intervention, weakening the transmission chain that yen strength persists and suppresses tech. On the other hand, there remains significant bearish risk at the derivatives/positioning level (CFTC COT net short in extremely low percentile, see Arc #476/193), with several arcs marked price_in=True indicating some expectations are already priced in. Therefore, both bullish and bearish have strong non-price evidence, leading to an inability to form a one-sided conclusion. The key driving arc #146 (ecb_eurozone_rate_cycle) that previously supported the bearish view has been excluded from the sample, hence this version changes direction to 'mixed'. |
| 2026-08-08 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a slightly bearish bias for QQQ in the short to medium term, primarily driven by non-price evidence on arc #146: Eurozone July CPI rising to 2.9% (indicating an ECB tilt towards / path signal) and CFTC/record short positions, both pointing to relative downside risk for rate-sensitive growth stocks. Meanwhile, there are significant constraints: arc #2 (US August NFP weak print of -23k) provides macro evidence supporting a dovish Fed stance, and arc #193 suggests potential central bank intervention/fluidity pathways that could mitigate some FX/policy-driven pressures. Note that the price_in_excess marked on arc #146 has already been factored in, and option implied volatility is low, increasing the cost of shorting and the risk of a squeeze, thus moderately limiting confidence. |
| 2026-08-07 | Bearish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a mildly bearish stance on QQQ for the medium to short term, driven by the interest rate/policy risk chain marked by arc #146 (Eurozone July CPI rose to 2.9%, providing non-price evidence of the ECB’s hawkish path) and arc #2 (emerging hawkish dissent within the Fed and an upward adjustment in market-implied probabilities of further rate hikes). The increase in CFTC (NASDAQ) net shorts and FINRA short stock numbers, which are not price-supported, reinforce downward vulnerability. It is important to note that arc #146 indicates price_in_excess (part of the downside has already been factored into the market), with option IV at historical lows, increasing the cost of shorting and the risk of a squeeze, thus limiting confidence to moderately high (≈0.60). |
| 2026-08-06 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a mildly bearish stance on QQQ for the medium to short term. The primary non-price driver comes from Arc #146 (Eurozone July CPI rose to 2.9%, directly increasing the probability of an hawkish path for the ECB) and Arc #2 (hawkish dissent within the Fed and rising market expectations for interest rate hikes), supported by CFTC net positions showing net shorts and increased short positions, which put downward pressure on rate-sensitive growth/tech stocks. Note that the price_in marker for Arc #146 indicates that some of the downside has already been priced in, so position sizing should be cautiously controlled and attention should be paid to short covering risks in the near term, thus confidence is moderately limited. |
| 2026-08-05 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a moderately bearish stance on QQQ for the medium to short term: primarily driven by non-price evidence - arc #146 (unexpected rise in eurozone July CPI, excess_sigma=+1.33, and CFTC net shorts and long-short positions supporting bets), and arc #2 (emerging hawkish dissent within the Fed and increased market probability of interest rate hikes yes_prob=0.71) - which tend to indicate an upward path for interest rates and pressure on growth stocks. Note that part of the downward movement in arc #146 has been absorbed by market prices (price_in marked), and most other arcs remain contentious or attenuated, thus moderating confidence rather than overemphasizing it. Arc #193 (reported forex intervention between Japan and the US) instead weakens the link attributing QQQ weakness to yen normalization by the BoJ, hence not reversing the overall bearish outlook. |
| 2026-08-04 | Bearish lean | 0.54 | Maintain a mildly bearish stance on QQQ for the medium to short term: primarily driven by non-price evidence - empirical signals from arc #146 (unexpected rise in eurozone July CPI, excess_sigma=+1.33, and CFTC/positioning showing net shorts) and arc #2 (emerging hawkish dissent within the Fed and increased market expectations for higher interest rates yes_prob=0.71), pointing to an upward path for interest rates and a medium-term pressure on growth stocks. Note that the downside of arc #146 has been partially reflected in prices/positions (price_in_excess=True), and most arcs are decaying or contested, so maintain caution and limit additional positions. Stick with previous conclusions (no directional changes), with key drivers still being arc #146 and arc #2. |
| 2026-08-03 | Bearish lean | 0.52 | Maintain a mildly bearish stance on QQQ for the medium to short term, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc#146: the unexpected rise in Eurozone July CPI (excess_sigma=+1.33) increased the probability of the ECB maintaining or strengthening its tightening path. The CFTC (Nasdaq) net short position and increase in short positions exert downward pressure on the position level. It should be noted that this negativity has been partially reflected in prices (arc#146 price_in_excess=True), and most other arcs are contested/mixed signals, with the current systemic liquidity and volatility environment not amplifying risk premiums. Therefore, confidence is moderately reduced. In summary, maintain a mildly bearish stance but do not recommend significantly increasing short positions. |
| 2026-08-02 | Bearish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a lean negative stance on QQQ for the medium to short term, primarily based on non-price evidence from Arc #146: an unexpected rise in Eurozone July CPI to 2.9% increases the probability of the ECB maintaining or tightening its path. The CFTC (Nasdaq) net shorts and increased short positions reported by FINRA contribute to selling pressure at the position level. Arc #146 is recent and actionable (days_since_event=0), thus reinforcing the negative outlook, but it must be noted that both Arc #146 and Arc #193 have price_in_excess=True annotations, indicating that some of the decline has already been priced in, which limits the rational confidence in adding to shorts. Other arcs (such as Arc #2 regarding regional central bank/emerging market risks, and the mixed signals from quantitative readings in Arcs #484/193) remain contentious or mixed, so a moderate lean negative stance with medium confidence is maintained. |
| 2026-08-01 | Bearish lean | 0.56 | Maintain a short-term to medium-term bearish stance on QQQ. The primary non-price driver comes from the position evidence in reports #261 and #154: CFTC (Nasdaq) has maintained a net short position (approximately -74.7k / -64.1k contracts) while FINRA reports high long holdings (around 67M shares), indicating structural selling pressure at the position level. Caution is advised as report #261/193 suggests that option protection is relatively cheap (low IV percentile and negative put-call skew), and report #146/193 notes that some declines have already been priced in (price_in). These conflicting signals limit the rational confidence in further increasing short positions. |
| 2026-07-31 | Bearish lean | 0.66 | Maintain a lean-negative bias for QQQ in the short to medium term. The driving force comes from arc #261 providing independent non-price quantitative evidence: the latest CFTC report shows Nasdaq net shorts have expanded to -74,690 contracts, and FINRA reports high short positions (approximately 67.0M shares, days-to-cover approximately 1.88), which constitute ongoing selling pressure; arc #418 also reinforces the net short evidence. It is important to note the limitations and contradictions: several arcs (#146, #193) indicate price_in_excess, suggesting that some of the downside has already been priced in, and macro liquidity/low IV (Fed net liquidity still relatively IV rank low) limit high confidence, thus placing confidence at medium-high rather than high. |
| 2026-07-30 | Bearish lean | 0.64 | Maintain a short-term to medium-term bearish bias (lean_negative) on QQQ, primarily due to the non-price quantitative evidence provided by Arc #261: CFTC/COT shows net shorts of approximately -64,163 contracts for Nasdaq, with FINRA short interest rising to around 67.0M shares and days-to-cover=1.88, indicating ongoing accumulation of bearish pressure on the leveraged/position side. It should be noted that there are conflicting points: several arcs (Arcs #146, #193, #476) indicate price_in or price_in_excess, and institutional liquidity has recently rebounded (Regime with Fed net liquidity +$103B), which means some of the downward momentum has been absorbed by prices and constrains high confidence. In summary, based on clear non-price position and holding signals, maintain a bearish stance but due to partial incorporation and macro liquidity support, confidence remains moderately high. |
| 2026-07-29 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | 维持对 QQQ 的短中期偏空（lean_negative），主要由弧#261 提供的非价格量化证据驱动：CFTC/COT 显示纳斯达克净空约 -64,163 手，FINRA 空头持股上升至约 67.0M 股且 days‑to‑cover=1.88，表明机构/杠杆端在累积空头压力。需指出部分弧（例如 #146、#193、#476）已标注 price_in，且近期系统性流动性回升（Regime 中 Fed net liquidity +$103B）为风险资产提供支撑，意味着部分下行动力已被市场计入，因此将置信度适度压低但仍维持在 0.60 以上。非价格证据（COT/短仓/空头持股）为本结论的核心依据，价格动量并非主要支撑。 |
| 2026-07-28 | Bearish lean | 0.61 | Maintain a short-term to medium-term lean negative stance on QQQ. The driving factor is the non-price quantitative evidence from arc #261 (East Asia Semiconductor Supply Chain): CFTC/COT Nasdaq net shorts at -64,163 contracts, recent fund outflows, and rising short positions indicating active accumulation of bearish positions by institutions/leverage players, creating substantial downward pressure. Note that the price has already incorporated the downside indicated by arcs #146 and #193, and given the relatively friendly liquidity/volatility environment currently, maintain a moderate lean negative confidence level to reflect partial realization and macro hedging factors. |
| 2026-07-27 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a short-term to medium-term bearish lean on QQQ. The driving non-price evidence comes from Arc #261: CFTC/COT Nasdaq net shorts at -64,163 contracts, recent large net outflows by funds and rising short positions, indicating that institutions/leverage are accumulating shorts, constituting a substantial downward force; these positions/posture signals form the main basis for this conclusion. It is cautious to note that Arc #146 and Arc #193 have been marked with 'partially priced in' (price_in flag), and current liquidity recovery along with VIX term ratio in contango supports risk assets, thus moderating confidence while acknowledging fresh confirming evidence. |
| 2026-07-26 | Bearish lean | 0.56 | Maintain a lean negative bias for QQQ in the short to medium term. The driving non-price evidence from Arc #146 and Arc #261 includes CFTC/COT showing Nasdaq net shorts at -64,163 contracts, an increase in short positions by +4.7%, and near-term fund outflows of approximately -$3.69B, indicating a bearish position and potentially amplifying downside risks. Arc #2 (Fed 2026 rate repricing) provides a hedging positive path (predicting a significant reduction in the probability of further interest rate hikes), but this signal is decaying and insufficient to offset the substantial negative evidence from positions and liquidity; note that several arcs are marked price_in, indicating that downside has been partially priced in. Therefore, reduce confidence in the bearish stance and be wary of the risk of 'already priced' factors. |