KRE SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
Bearish lean Confidence 0.63 Regime Low-vol
Maintain a bearish stance on KRE, primarily based on non-price quantitative evidence: substantial net redemptions since August 13, 2026 (arc_116 indicates approximately -$427M / 30d and arc_355 shows phased outflows) and net liquidity contraction at the federal level over the past four weeks by about $125B, forming a causal chain of 'liquidity contraction -> pressure on regional bank valuation and liquidity premiums.' These are directional non-price drivers. It should be noted that arc_116 is recent (<=7 days) and strong confirming evidence, so it would be inappropriate to unduly lower confidence; however, the price_in_excess for arc_116 has been marked as priced-in, indicating that some of the decline has already been factored in. Therefore, we will limit our confidence moderately rather than significantly increase it. The arcs related to BoJ/ECB/BoE are mostly contested or decaying and do not provide alternative non-price transmission chains to overturn this conclusion.
30-day verdict history
| Date | Direction | Confidence | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Bearish lean | 0.63 | Maintain a bearish stance on KRE, primarily based on non-price quantitative evidence: substantial net redemptions since August 13, 2026 (arc_116 indicates approximately -$427M / 30d and arc_355 shows phased outflows) and net liquidity contraction at the federal level over the past four weeks by about $125B, forming a causal chain of 'liquidity contraction -> pressure on regional bank valuation and liquidity premiums.' These are directional non-price drivers. It should be noted that arc_116 is recent (<=7 days) and strong confirming evidence, so it would be inappropriate to unduly lower confidence; however, the price_in_excess for arc_116 has been marked as priced-in, indicating that some of the decline has already been factored in. Therefore, we will limit our confidence moderately rather than significantly increase it. The arcs related to BoJ/ECB/BoE are mostly contested or decaying and do not provide alternative non-price transmission chains to overturn this conclusion. |
| 2026-08-23 | Bearish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a bearish stance on KRE. Mainly based on non-price evidence from arc_116 (Fed 2026 rate cycle) and arc_355 (private credit): KRE experienced net redemptions of approximately -$81M (≈-1.86% AUM) since August 13, 2026, with a cumulative outflow of -1.15% AUM over the past 30 days. Additionally, Fed net liquidity has contracted by about -$125B in the last four weeks, forming a chain of transmission from 'liquidity tightening → pressure on regional bank net interest margins and valuations.' It should be noted that price_in for arc_116 is flagged (price_in_excess flagged=True), indicating that some of the decline has already been priced into the market. Therefore, confidence should not be too high, so maintain a rating of 0.60. |
| 2026-08-22 | Bearish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a bearish stance on KRE, primarily based on non-price evidence rather than price momentum alone. The driving logic comes from arc_116 (Fed 2026 rate cycle) – predicting a decrease in market probability of further interest rate hikes, with net redemptions for KRE amounting to approximately -$81M since August 13 and recent net liquidity narrowing by about -$125B over four weeks, constituting the transmission 'yield curve flattening -> pressure on regional bank net interest margins/NII'. arc_355 (private credit) strengthens the chain of funding supply contraction and ETF outflows. Two points need to be noted to calibrate confidence: first, price_in for arc_116 has been flagged (flagged=True), indicating that some of the downside is already priced in, so confidence should be; second, the current 20d upward movement in SPY makes this a contrarian short position. Therefore, I rely on non-price evidence from arc_116/arc_355 as idiosyncratic drivers to support this bearish conclusion. |
| 2026-08-21 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | 维持对 KRE 的偏空判断。主要驱动来自 arc_116（Fed 2026 rate cycle）的非价格证据：预测市场对继续加息概率偏低（yes_prob≈0.42）并伴随现货金/黄金 ETF 大规模流入，构成对长期收益率下行与银行净利差收窄的传导链，直接不利于区域银行盈利；其次 arc_440 提供的非价格补强（NY Fed 信用卡 90+ 天逾期高位与近周系统性流动性边际收缩）仍支持中性到偏空的基本面担忧，尽管该弧置信较上次回落。注意这是在风险偏好仍温和（REGIME 中 SPY 20d 上行）的背景下的逆势空头，因此特别依赖 arc_116 所述的部门性 NIM/收益率传导作为 idiosyncratic 驱动，价格端并未表明该方向已完全 priced-in。 |
| 2026-08-20 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a bearish stance on KRE. The primary driver comes from the non-price transmission chain of arc_116 (Fed 2026 rate cycle) and arc_440 (US debt/credit/liquidity signals): arc_116 predicts a low probability of continued interest rate hikes (yes_prob=0.39), accompanied by gold and capital flows, suggesting potential narrowing of spreads; arc_440 highlights the high level of 90+ day delinquencies in NY Fed credit cards and systemic liquidity contraction over the past four weeks (WALCL-TGA-RRP 4w -$191B), supporting the fundamental logic of pressure on regional banks in the medium term. It is important to note that this is a contrarian position, given the SPY 20d uptrend and strong risk appetite in REGIME, and arc_116 marks price_in_excess as flagged=True, indicating that some downward movements may already be priced in. Therefore, confidence should be moderately adjusted after considering 'pricing-in' and contrarian risks. |
| 2026-08-19 | Bearish lean | 0.68 | Maintain a bearish stance on KRE. The primary reason is the arc_116 (Fed path and systemic liquidity contraction over the past four weeks, WALCL 4w -$191B, potentially compressing net interest margins for regional banks through yield curve and loan-end yields tightening) and arc_440 (consumer credit, high 90+ day delinquencies leading to elevated asset quality risks). It is important to note that the current market environment favors risk-taking (REGIME risk preference risk_on, SPY 20d up), making this a contrarian position. However, given that the drivers are sector-specific fundamental/liquidity evidence rather than purely price momentum, we maintain a moderately high confidence level. Additionally, recent short-term capital inflows and lack of price_in marking suggest that the downside has not yet fully materialized. |
| 2026-08-18 | Bearish lean | 0.68 | Maintain a bearish view on KRE. Mainly based on the non-price transmission chain provided by arc_116 (Fed + July retail sales -0.6%, with market Fed-hike probability≈0.36 and net liquidity contraction of -$191B in the past four weeks) and arc_440 (increase in 90+ day delinquencies on credit cards and KRE net outflow of -7.05% AUM over the last 30 days), which indicate macroeconomic weakness and asset quality/funding pressure that will compress regional bank spreads and weaken earnings. This bearish view is somewhat mitigated by arc_159 (BoJ intervention/stabilization of the yen reducing cross-border selling of US Treasuries and easing extreme interest rate shocks), thus slightly lowering confidence but not changing the direction. |
| 2026-08-17 | Bearish lean | 0.72 | Maintain a bearish stance on KRE, primarily based on non-price transmission chains: arc_116 points out weakening US macroeconomic conditions (July retail sales down -0.6%, σ≈-2.8), reduced market expectations for further interest rate hikes, and systemic liquidity contraction over the past four weeks (WALCL-TGA-RRP -$191B), which would compress regional bank spreads and weaken earnings; arc_440 strengthens evidence of asset quality and funding pressures (increase in credit card 90+ delinquencies, net outflows from KRE of -7.05% AUM over the past 30 days, net redemptions starting August 6th at -$29M), forming a path for passive/active fund withdrawals to amplify downward pressure. Opposing views come from arc_159 (BoJ-driven cross-border selling of US Treasuries scenario) on the possibility of intervention, but this arc remains contested and lacks sufficient quantitative evidence to interrupt the above two non-price transmission chains, thus not enough to change the bearish stance. |
| 2026-08-16 | Bearish lean | 0.72 | Maintain a bearish stance on KRE, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc_116 and arc_440. arc_116 notes that the probability of Fed rate hikes has decreased, along with short-term macro indicators (July retail sales -0.6%, σ≈-2.8) and systemic liquidity contraction over the past four weeks (WALCL-TGA-RRP -$191B), which weakens the path for yield support through spread expansion in regional banks. arc_440 reinforces the funding and asset quality transmission chain (increase in 90+ days delinquencies on credit cards + KRE net outflows of -7.05% AUM since August 6, with net redemptions of -$29M), creating a sustained selling pressure on both passive and active funds. Although arc_159 argues that BoJ intervention tools could potentially cut off some cross-border interest rate transmission, this argument is currently contested and lacks direct quantitative evidence to overturn the non-price transmission chain mentioned above, thus no change in judgment. |
| 2026-08-15 | Bearish lean | 0.70 | Maintain a bearish stance on KRE. The non-price transmission chain is supported by arc_116 (lower Fed rate hike probability and recent macroeconomic weakening signals, such as the significant decline in August 14 retail sales month-over-month), arc_440 (four-week net contraction in systemic liquidity of $191B and KRE's net redemption of -7.05% AUM since August 6, amounting to -$29M), and arc_355 (outflows from private credit/shadow banking). Policy conflicts to note include arc_159 (BoJ intervention tools potentially cutting off the 'BOJ normalization -> sell US Treasuries -> pressure regional banks' transmission chain) and arc_145's short-term net creation decaying, which is in conflict with the main evidence chain but has a lower weight and does not outweigh recent fresh liquidity and capital flow evidence. Therefore, maintain a bearish stance overall. |
| 2026-08-14 | Bearish lean | 0.65 | Maintain a bearish stance on KRE. The driving non-price evidence comes from arc_116 (Fed probability down + unexpectedly cold NFP = -23k) and systemic liquidity contraction (Fed net liquidity reduction of -$191B over four weeks), as well as funding evidence from arc_440 / arc_355 (KRE 30-day cumulative net redemptions at -7.05% AUM, net redemptions since 2026-08-06 of -$29M, and outflows in private credit/shadow banking), which together form a chain of passive/active selling pressure. Although there are conflicting signals from arc_145 reporting short-term net creations of +$292M, this arc is decaying/contested and fails to offset the recent confirming non-price evidence, hence maintaining a mild bearish stance. |
| 2026-08-13 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a bearish stance on KRE. The driving non-price evidence includes the unexpectedly cold non-farm payrolls (-23k) and near 4 weeks of net liquidity contraction by the Fed to -$121B, which weakens the transmission of 'higher rates -> NIM expansion -> regional bank benefit'; meanwhile, funding evidence from arc_440/arc_355 reports (net redemptions of -$61M since 7/31 and a cumulative outflow of -6.28% AUM over 30 days) constitute direct passive and active selling pressure supporting the downside. It is noted that the conflicting evidence from arc_145 report of short-term net creations of +$292M (short-term buying pressure) may temporarily limit the decline, hence a mild bearish stance rather than a high-confidence bearish call is given. |
| 2026-08-12 | Bearish lean | 0.46 | Continue bearish on KRE. Mainly based on non-price quantitative evidence: arc_440's liquidity data (net redemptions of -$61M since 7/31, -6.28% AUM outflow over 30 days) directly constitutes passive/active selling pressure; arc_116 notes the August jobs report was unexpectedly weak (-23k) and is accompanied by near 4 weeks of Fed net liquidity contraction of -$121B, weakening the 'higher longer -> NIM expansion' transmission chain; arc_355 provides additional downward momentum regarding private/shadow banking and extra capital outflows. Given that most of these arcs are in a decaying state and option IV/volatility does not indicate systemic panic, sentiment is maintained as mildly bearish rather than strongly bearish. |
| 2026-08-11 | Bearish lean | 0.50 | Maintain a negative bias towards KRE. The rationale is based on non-price quantitative evidence: arc_440's funding data (net redemptions of -$61M since 2026-07-31, -6.28% AUM outflow over the past 30 days) directly constitutes selling pressure. arc_116 highlights key macro signals—unexpectedly cold non-farm payrolls in August 2026 (actual -23k vs expected +85k)—combined with near four weeks of Fed net liquidity contraction of -$121B, weakening the 'higher for longer -> NIM expansion' transmission chain and thus exerting downward pressure on regional bank earnings and valuations. arc_355's withdrawal from private/shadow banking provides additional support to this negative outlook, but most arcs are in a decaying state (evidence strength declining), so overall confidence remains moderate rather than high. |
| 2026-08-10 | Bearish lean | 0.48 | Maintain a bearish stance on KRE based on independent non-price evidence: arc_440's funding evidence (net creation/redemption of -$61M since 2026-07-31, -6.28% AUM outflow over 30 days) directly contributes to selling pressure and weakens valuation support; meanwhile, arc_116 indicates a shift in key macro signals (unexpectedly cold August NFP actual -23k vs exp +85k) alongside Fed net liquidity contraction of -$121B over the past four weeks, further dampening the positive transmission of higher and longer-lasting interest rates on NIM. Multiple arcs converge non-price-wise but are predominantly in a recessionary state (decaying), thus maintaining a bearish stance with confidence not at a high level. |
| 2026-08-09 | Bearish lean | 0.50 | Maintain a bearish stance on KRE. Primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc_440 and arc_355: since July 29, 2026, the ETF has experienced net creations/redemptions outflows of approximately -$205M (≈-4.6% AUM), with a cumulative outflow of -11.24% AUM over the past 30 days, providing clear downward pressure on liquidity. arc_145 (U.S. non-farm payroll unexpectedly cold) also supports concerns about regional bank earnings and loan growth, but arc_116 (forecast market probability of 'higher for longer' rates at p=0.66) offers potential positive offsetting factors, with arc_145 marked as price_in indicating that some of the decline has already been factored in, thus limiting confidence to a moderate level. |
| 2026-08-08 | Bearish lean | 0.46 | Maintain a bearish stance on KRE. Mainly driven by non-price evidence provided by arc_440 (US Debt Crisis): the ETF experienced net creations/redemptions outflows of approximately -$205M (≈-4.6% AUM) since July 29, 2026, with cumulative outflows of -11.24% AUM over the past 30 days, which is further confirmed by arc_355's redemption data on funding pressure. Although fund flows are a clear non-price downward force, multiple arguments are weakening or in dispute and there is no high-confidence, strong excess_sigma confirmation within ≤7 days. Additionally, arc_145 shows that price_in has been marked (potentially some of the decline may have already been factored in), thus confidence remains limited and below 0.60. |
| 2026-08-07 | Bearish lean | 0.50 | Maintain a bearish stance on KRE. Mainly driven by non-price evidence provided by arc_440 (US Debt Crisis): the ETF experienced net creations/redemptions outflows of approximately -$205M (≈-4.6% AUM) since 2026-07-29, with a cumulative outflow of -11.24% AUM over the past 30 days, serving as a direct downward transmission channel for passive and active funds. Non-price evidence that offsets this conclusion includes low option protection prices (put IV ≈21%, 9-day percentile at 0%) and a decrease in short positions (FINRA short shares reduced to ~52M, days-to-cover≈3.97), indicating that the current downward trend is more due to fund withdrawals rather than any substantive deterioration in observed credit quality. Confidence level is moderate; if fund flows continue to deteriorate over the next 7-14 days, confidence can be increased. |
| 2026-08-06 | Bearish lean | 0.52 | Maintain a bearish stance on KRE, primarily supported by non-price evidence from arc_440 (US Debt Crisis) and arc_467 (U.S. Consumer Default Pressure): since July 29, 2026, the ETF has experienced net creations/redemptions outflows of approximately -$205M (≈-4.6% AUM), with a cumulative outflow of -11.24% AUM over the past 30 days, serving as a direct downward transmission channel for passive and active funds. The countervailing evidence includes low option protection prices (put IV ≈21.29%, near 0th percentile over the last 9 days) and reduced short positions (decreased FINRA short shares), indicating limited demand for protection and active shorting, thus limiting confidence and the speed of decline. |
| 2026-08-05 | Bearish lean | 0.52 | Maintain a bearish stance on KRE, primarily driven by arc_467 (US consumer default): the market's bet on rising credit card delinquencies is high (yes≈0.86), and net outflows for KRE in the last 30 days amount to approximately -4.47% AUM (≈-$208M), exerting direct downward pressure on both passive and active positions. Confidence has been reduced compared to last time due to a downgrade in the scale of liquidity evidence, low option implied volatility/insurance demand, and a decline in short positions during the settlement period (as shown by arc_467 and arc_355 quantitative snapshots), which weakens the previous strong assertion of rapid declines. Other arcs such as arc_145/159/491 remain contentious or indirect, with arc_440 indicating a new short signal; thus, it is bearish but with moderate confidence, requiring further validation through non-price quantitative evidence for directional reinforcement. |
| 2026-08-04 | Bearish lean | 0.56 | Maintain a bearish stance on KRE, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc_467 (US consumer default): the market's bet on rising credit card delinquencies is high (yes≈0.86), and net redemptions in the past 30 days are approximately -4.47% AUM, exerting direct downward pressure on passive/active positions. It should be noted that this liquidity evidence has been revised down from previous estimates (~-$507M to -$208M), reducing the strength and confidence of the short-term bearish argument compared to the last assessment; other bullish arcs are mostly in recession or nascent stages, providing little new strong evidence. On the other hand, arc_116 (Fed 2026 rate cycle) still offers some partial hedging with 'higher longer rates -> NIM recovery -> supporting KRE,' thus maintaining a bearish but moderately low confidence stance. |
| 2026-08-03 | Bearish lean | 0.52 | Maintain a negative bias towards KRE (lean_negative). The primary reason remains the non-price evidence from arc_467 (consumer_credit_delinquency_us): the market is heavily betting on an increase in credit card delinquencies (yes≈0.86), and there has been a net redemption of about -4.47% AUM since July 21, 2026, which represents direct selling pressure on both passive and active positions. Given that arc_467 is already in recession (days_since=9) with revised previous redemptions, and considering the easing of short-term bearish positions along with low IV levels, I maintain a confidence level slightly below medium (less than 0.60); while arc_116 (Fed 2026 rate cycle) still supports the causal chain of 'higher rates for longer -> NIM recovery,' the conclusion remains cautiously negative rather than strongly bearish. |
| 2026-08-02 | Bearish lean | 0.56 | Maintain a negative bias towards KRE (lean_negative). The primary reason remains the non-price evidence from arc_467 (consumer_credit_delinquency_us): the market is heavily betting on an increase in credit card delinquencies (yes≈0.86), and net redemptions have been around -4.47% AUM since July 21, 2026, putting direct downward pressure on both passive and active holdings. It should be noted that arc_467 is now in recession (days_since=8.1, strengthen_streak=0), and the previous estimate of redemption scale has been revised down. The chain from arc_116 (Fed 2026 rate cycle) suggesting |
| 2026-08-01 | Bearish lean | 0.58 | Maintain a negative bias towards KRE (lean_negative). The primary reason remains the non-price evidence from arc_467 (consumer_credit_delinquency_us): the market is heavily betting on rising credit card delinquencies (yes≈0.86), and the latest quantitative snapshot still shows net creation/redemption outflows (30-day ≈-4.47% AUM) with increased demand for downside protection in options, supporting a |
| 2026-07-31 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a negative bias towards KRE (lean_negative). The primary reason is the independent non-price evidence from arc_467 (consumer_credit_delinquency_us): it predicts strong bets on rising credit card delinquencies (yes≈0.86), and while this has weakened somewhat, there are still real net outflows of creation/redemption (-$208M / -4.47% AUM recently) with increased demand for downside protection from the options side (skew/IV signals), supporting a 'funds withdrawal -> passive/active selling pressure' dynamic. Counterbalancing evidence comes from arc_116 (Fed 2026 rate cycle) – its hawkish signal and liquidity readings may be beneficial to bank NIM, limiting higher confidence; therefore, maintain the negative bias but slightly lower the confidence level and note that the flow of funds evidence has been re-estimated as a smaller scale. |
| 2026-07-30 | Bearish lean | 0.63 | Maintain a negative bias (lean_negative) for KRE, primarily driven by independent non-price evidence provided by arc_467: the market's bet on rising credit card delinquencies remains high (yes≈0.86), and since July 21, 2026, the ETF has experienced substantial net redemptions of approximately -$507M (≈-11.73% AUM), constituting a direct transmission of 'capital withdrawal -> passive/active selling pressure'. Independent quantitative signals from arc_355 and arc_440 further confirm that the market is pricing in downside and liquidity risks, reinforcing the bearish case. Although arc_116 suggests higher or longer-lasting interest rates could support bank NIM (a bullish factor), this arc is currently weakening and fails to offset the non-price evidence of fund flows and risk premiums, thus not altering the direction. |
| 2026-07-29 | Bearish lean | 0.63 | The overall judgment has shifted from bullish to bearish, primarily driven by independent non-price evidence provided by arc_467 (US consumer/credit card default pressure): the bet on an increase in credit card delinquencies remains high (yes≈0.86), and since July 21, 2026, KRE has experienced substantial net redemptions of -$507M, forming a chain of transmission from 'capital withdrawal -> passive/active selling pressure -> valuation/liquidity pressure'. Although arc_116 (Fed rate path) still provides potential support to net interest margins, its status and confidence have diminished and are insufficient to offset the risks from capital flows and rising option risk premia. Therefore, maintain a bearish but non-extreme position over a 1-3 month horizon (lean_negative). |
| 2026-07-28 | Bullish lean | 0.56 | Maintain a medium-term positive bias towards KRE. The primary non-price driver remains arc_116: systemically net liquidity has increased by approximately +$107B over the past four weeks, with market expectations of significant rate cuts being very low and better-than-expected performance in eurozone services supporting higher/longer rates and regional bank net interest margins and earnings. Conversely, caution is warranted due to reverse non-price evidence from arc_467 (rising consumer credit/card delinquencies, with market expectations at yes≈0.86) and arc_440 (housing/mortgage-related stress), which pose downside risks to asset quality. Given that the weight and confirmation status of arc_116 still dominate and no single opposing non-price signal has fully confirmed short-term systemic risk, maintain a positive bias but with caution, adjusting confidence levels moderately downward to reflect short-term hedging signals. |
| 2026-07-27 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a lean positive stance on KRE in the medium term. Mainly based on arc_116's non-price evidence: predicting low probabilities of Fed rate cuts, a significant net increase in near-month systemic liquidity (WALCL-TGA-RRP), and stronger-than-expected EU services sector supporting the |
| 2026-07-26 | Bullish lean | 0.58 | Maintain a medium-term positive bias towards KRE based on non-price evidence from arc_116 (Fed 2026 rate cycle): the forecast of a ~0.68 probability that the market expects the Fed to be more hawkish, and the strong surprise in the EU services PMI (σ=2.7), which forms a causal chain of 'higher rates for longer -> improvement in regional bank net interest margins (NIM)'. It is also necessary to acknowledge hedging evidence from arc_467 (consumer_credit_delinquency_us): the prediction of rising defaults in the market (yes≈0.86) and the weak signals in the housing/mortgage sector from arc_440 limit the upward confidence; additionally, it should be noted that the quantitative indicators from arc_116 show a slightly negative excess_sigma (-0.10) and recent abnormal net redemptions on a single day, indicating some contradiction between price and fund flows, thus reducing confidence moderately. |