USO United States Oil Fund
Bullish lean Confidence 0.65 Regime High-vol · at high
Maintain a bullish view on USO, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc #112 (US-Iran 2026 War): CFTC reports show net long crude positions at +87,479 contracts, and WTI near-month is significantly backwardated against the far-month (annualized ≈+17%), both pointing to tightness in near-month physicals/contracts and positive roll yield. The arc has been confirmed within the last week (days_since_event=6, strengthen_streak=3), giving it moderate confidence; however, the arc's excess_sigma=-0.20 aligns with the paper’s judgment that 'good news is partly priced in,' thus slightly lowering confidence to reflect some priced-in risk.
30-day verdict history
| Date | Direction | Confidence | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Bullish lean | 0.65 | Maintain a bullish view on USO, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc #112 (US-Iran 2026 War): CFTC reports show net long crude positions at +87,479 contracts, and WTI near-month is significantly backwardated against the far-month (annualized ≈+17%), both pointing to tightness in near-month physicals/contracts and positive roll yield. The arc has been confirmed within the last week (days_since_event=6, strengthen_streak=3), giving it moderate confidence; however, the arc's excess_sigma=-0.20 aligns with the paper’s judgment that 'good news is partly priced in,' thus slightly lowering confidence to reflect some priced-in risk. |
| 2026-08-23 | Bullish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a bullish stance on USO (1-3 months). Mainly driven by non-price evidence from Arc #112: CFTC shows net longs (87,479 contracts) and significant backwardation in the near month versus the far month (annualized slope =~+17.8%), indicating tightness in near-month physical supply and positive roll yield, structurally favorable for USO which tracks the near-month contract. The event has recently been confirmed (days_since_event=5, strengthen_streak=2), but note that price_in_excess is marked and suggests a high probability of market expecting continued ceasefire, with Arc's excess_sigma slightly negative indicating some of the positive factors may already be priced in, hence confidence is moderately dampened. |
| 2026-08-22 | Bullish lean | 0.58 | Maintain a bullish stance on USO (1-3 months), primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc #112: CFTC COT net long +79,916 and a clear backwardation in the near-month versus far-month (quant shows an annualized slope of approximately +17%) pointing to tight near-month supply and positive roll yield, supporting USO's benefit. The event has been recently confirmed (days_since_event=4, strengthen_streak=1), but it is worth noting that some of the positives have already been reflected at the ETF level (price_in_excess annotated with an excess retracement within the window followed by a recovery), and arc also shows excess_sigma=-0.20 along with net outflows over the past 30/90 days and low IV, indicating that some upward momentum may be priced in and limiting upside potential. Therefore, confidence remains moderate to high but is slightly reduced. |
| 2026-08-21 | Bullish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a bullish stance on USO, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc #112: CFTC COT net longs (+79,916 contracts) and significant backwardation in the near-month relative to the far-month (indicating spot tightness and near-month contango), supporting the causal chain of 'shipping disruptions -> reduced near-month supply -> USO benefits.' This arc has recently confirmed its trend (days_since_event=3, strengthen_streak=1), reinforcing the verifiable argument for supply constraints. It is important to note that arc #112 is also marked as price_in_excess=True (previously ~-8.85% excess drawdown) and there has been a clear net outflow of funds in the past 30/90 days, indicating that some positive factors have already been priced in and limiting upward momentum. Therefore, confidence remains moderate to high rather than at a very high level. |
| 2026-08-20 | Bullish lean | 0.52 | Maintain a bullish view on USO, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc #112: IEA has revised the full-year supply downward to -4.3 mb/d and reported significant declines in July marine/total inventories, combined with CFTC net long positions and a clear backwardation between nearby and far-month contracts, forming a verifiable chain of physical tightening. The quantitative snapshot also shows excess_sigma = -0.34, with significant net outflows for 30-day funding still evident, and the trading direction marked as partially 'priced-in' (price_in_excess=True), indicating limited upward momentum and some expectations already priced in. Overall, maintain a bullish stance but with limited confidence, with key validation points including physical inventory/OPEC+ fulfillment and further evidence of capital flows returning (driven by arc #112). |
| 2026-08-19 | Bullish lean | 0.52 | Maintain a bullish stance, primarily driven by non-price evidence from Arc #112: IEA has revised down the full-year supply by -4.3 mb/d and reported significant declines in marine/total inventories for July, combined with net long positions and clear backwardation between nearby and far-month contracts as per CFTC COT reports, forming a verifiable chain of physical tightening. Note that prices have partially factored in (two arcs price_in=True), and implied volatility is at extremely low levels while there has been net outflow over the past 30 days, which would limit ETF amplification on oil price rises. Therefore, maintain a bullish stance but with limited confidence, closely watching further evidence of physical inventories and OPEC+/production cuts. |
| 2026-08-18 | Bullish lean | 0.46 | Bullish bias. Mainly driven by non-price evidence from Arc #112: IEA has revised down the full-year supply to -4.3 mb/d and reported significant declines in global/sea stocks in July, combined with a net long position and clear backwardation between nearby and far-month contracts as per CFTC COT, supporting a verifiable tightening at the spot end. Note that both arcs are marked price_in=True (some upward sentiment/recovery has been realized), and 30-day net outflows along with extremely low implied volatility in options limit USO's passive amplification when oil prices recover, thus concluding a bullish bias but with suppressed confidence. |
| 2026-08-17 | Bullish lean | 0.36 | Based on arc #112 (us_iran_2026_war) - non-price evidence from IEA's downward revision of annual supply and report of significant global/sea inventory drawdown in July, coupled with the CFTC COT showing net long positions and a clear backwardation between near-month and far-month futures - this indicates verifiable tightening at the spot level, supporting a bullish stance. Arc #503 (opec_production_quota_decision) is supported by COT and futures curve alignment but remains nascent with weak signals on execution risk/feasibility. It should be noted that both arcs indicate price_in=True in the bullish direction. Additionally, fund flows (significant redemptions over the past 30 days) and low IV limit the passive amplification of ETFs in response to supply shocks, thus the conclusion is lean positive but with reduced confidence. |
| 2026-08-16 | Mixed | 0.26 | Maintain a mixed view as non-price evidence is clearly split: the CFTC COT net long position on arc#503 and significant backwardation in near-month vs. far-month support the tight supply in the short end (a bullish non-price transmission chain); but the USO's large 30-day net redemption (-44.84% AUM) reported on arc#268 and negative surprises in U.S. retail sales weaken the ETF’s / in response to supply shocks. Both arcs are marked with price_in=True, indicating that some upward momentum has been factored into the market; and both are decaying/nascent with low confidence levels, thus maintaining overall confidence at a medium-low level with a short-to-medium-term bias towards caution. |
| 2026-08-15 | Mixed | 0.28 | Maintain a mixed view: Non-price evidence divergence – Arc#503 and Arc#112 pointing to CFTC net longs and significant near-month backwardation supporting nearby tightness and favoring USO; but Arc#112 and the large fund net redemptions reported in Arc#268 dampen expectations of ETF amplification effects under supply shocks. Multiple arcs with price_in=True indicate that some information is already priced in, and most arcs are in a decaying or nascent state, hence confidence remains moderately low but unchanged. |
| 2026-08-14 | Mixed | 0.32 | Maintain a mixed view: The non-price evidence for arcs #268 and #503 (CFTC significant net long +86,958 contracts and persistent near-month backwardation) still supports the transmission of 'near-end spot relatively tight -> favorable to near-month exposure (USO)'. However, the independent non-price facts from arc #112 (and supplemented by arc #268) — large net redemptions of USO since 7/27 and a high probability of ceasefire in market forecasts — directly weaken the ETF's effect under supply shocks. With multiple arcs marked with price_in=True, and most being decaying/nascent states, maintain caution, keeping low confidence without changing direction. |
| 2026-08-13 | Mixed | 0.30 | Maintain a mixed view. The non-price evidence provided by arc#503 and arc#268 (CFTC net long +86,958 contracts and significant near-month backwardation) still supports the transmission of 'near-end spot tightness -> favorable near-month exposure (USO)'; but arc#112 and arc#268 also report direct weakening fund evidence for the ETF (USO experienced large net redemptions ≈ -$484M / about -26% AUM since 7/27, massive outflows in the last 30 days) as well as a high probability prediction of ceasefire/negotiation (arc#112 pred_mkt ceasefire p≈0.98). These independent non-price facts reduce the ETF's and amplification effect. Note that several arcs have price_in=True, indicating that some positive/risk premiums have been digested by the market, thus keeping confidence levels low. |
| 2026-08-12 | Mixed | 0.30 | Maintain a mixed outlook. The non-price support provided by arcs #503 and #268 still holds: CFTC net long at +86,958 contracts with clear nearby backwardation (supporting the transmission chain of near-end spot tightness), but these do not form a consistent executable signal. Instead, the large-scale net redemptions reported by arcs #268/112 at the fund level (USO since 7/27 ≈ -29% AUM / 30-day -48% AUM) and arc #112 indicating a high prediction of ceasefire/negotiation probabilities constitute significant independent counter-evidence; and multiple arcs are marked with price_in=True, indicating that some positive/risk premiums have been factored into the market. Therefore, maintain a mixed stance with low confidence. |
| 2026-08-11 | Mixed | 0.34 | Maintain a mixed outlook. The non-price evidence provided by arcs #503 and #268 (CFTC COT with persistent net long positions of +86,958 contracts and clear near-month backwardation) still supports the positive transmission chain for crude oil in the medium term, but the significant fund net redemptions reported in arcs #268/#503 (-29% to -48% AUM) and arc #112's prediction of a high-probability ceasefire/negotiation (yes_prob≈0.89) constitute substantial independent counter-evidence that weakens the persistence of geopolitical risk premiums. Multiple arcs are marked with price_in=True, indicating that some of the positive/risk premia have been digested by the market, thus maintaining a moderately low confidence in the mixed conclusion. |
| 2026-08-10 | Mixed | 0.38 | Maintain a mixed outlook. The CFTC net long position and significant near-month backwardation (arcs #503, #268 provide non-price evidence) remain the main bullish transmission chain for USO, but the prediction of high probability of a ceasefire/negotiation between the U.S. and Iran (arc #112's yes_prob ≈ 0.89) and substantial net redemptions at the ETF level with weak demand (arcs #503/268 report -29% to -48% AUM and weaker-than-expected NFP) constitute independent and significant counter-evidence, leading to a directional divergence. Multiple arcs are marked price_in=True, indicating that some of the positive/negative risk premiums have been factored into the market, so I will lower my confidence and maintain a neutral-leaning mixed conclusion. |
| 2026-08-09 | Mixed | 0.40 | Non-price evidence split: The CFTC net long position and the evident near-month backwardation (arcs #503, #268 indicate) remain the main non-price positive factors supporting USO. However, the prediction of a high probability of a ceasefire/negotiation between the U.S. and Iran (arc #112, yes_prob≈0.89) and recent weak NFP data along with significant net redemptions at the fund level (≈-35% AUM, reported in arcs #503/#268) constitute clear counter-evidence. Multiple arcs are marked price_in=True and option IV is low, indicating that some positive/risk premiums have been digested by the market; no new consistent confirmatory (actionable) evidence has emerged to favor either direction. Based on these non-price drivers (COT/backwardation, market predictions, fund flows, and demand signals), maintain a 'mixed' stance with medium-low confidence to reflect the hedging and pricing components of the evidence. |
| 2026-08-08 | Mixed | 0.40 | 非价格证据分裂：CFTC 净多与 WTI 期货明显近月 backwardation 是支持多头的核心非价格链（见弧#503/#458），但新进入且时效性强的弧#112 指出预测市场对“停火/和谈”的高概率（削弱冲突溢价通道），且三条弧线均被标记 price_in=True 并记录了对 USO 的大额净赎回（≈ -35% AUM），这些都削弱了 ETF 从地缘风险或 OPEC 收紧中持续获利的路径。另有 NFP 偏冷的需求端非价格证据（弧#458）进一步抵消潜在利多。综上：证据方向混杂（支持与削弱并存），因此给出“mixed”判断并保持中低置信度，因多头论点被新近的停火概率与资金流出实质性对冲且部分已被市场计入。 |
| 2026-08-07 | Bullish lean | 0.50 | Maintain a cautious bullish stance on USO: The non-price transmission chain still exists – as indicated by the CFTC report showing net long positions (Arc#503 and Arc#268 COT data) and significant backwardation in near-month/far-month crude oil, supporting ETFs with primary exposure to near-month positions benefiting over 1-3 months. It is important to note the quantitative contradictions and risks: The quantitative signal for Arc#503 does not fully support its textual bullishness (excess_sigma = -0.43) and has been marked as price_in=True, indicating that some positive factors may already be priced in; additionally, Arc#503/268/458 all show substantial net redemptions at the ETF level (approximately -33% to -35% AUM), which would reduce liquidity and dampen short-term returns. Therefore, maintain a bullish stance but with moderate confidence, and consider increasing conviction if OPEC+ announces binding production cuts and fund flows cease or reverse. |
| 2026-08-06 | Bullish lean | 0.54 | Combining two recent arcs: CFTC COT net longs (Arc #503/Arc #268 Report 2026-07-28, net long +92,943 contracts) with significant near-month/far-month backwardation (annualized ≈11%) provides a non-price positive transmission chain supporting USO, which is mainly exposed to the near month, for gains over 1–3 months. However, caution is warranted as Arc #503 notes price_in (USO has an existing -19.69% price_in_excess) and its quant shows excess_sigma negative, indicating that some of the positive factors may already be priced in and there are contradictions between the quantitative readings and the bullish narrative of this arc. Additionally, significant fund net redemptions (-32.98% AUM) and low option IV add liquidity/structural risks at the ETF level, thus maintaining a mild bias to the upside but with low confidence. |
| 2026-08-05 | Bullish lean | 0.52 | Maintain a mild bullish stance on USO. The driving rationale is the non-price evidence from arcs #503 and #268: CFTC COT shows net long positions at +92,943 contracts, and the near-month-to-far-month futures curve remains significantly backwardated (annualized ≈11%), indicating front-end tightness that benefits USO with a heavy near-month exposure. However, caution is warranted as both funding dynamics and realized price actions are partially |
| 2026-08-04 | Bullish lean | 0.59 | Maintain a mild bullish stance on USO. Mainly driven by non-price evidence from Arc #112: CFTC COT net longs at +92,943 contracts and significant backwardation (near month 84.67 vs 12 months later 70.27, annualized +20.492%) indicating relative tightness in front-end supply, supporting USO's roll yield. Both arcs moving in the same direction enhances the directional signal, but both are marked as price_in (part of the upward move is already priced in), and Arc #112's excess_sigma at -0.32 provides a contra-directional signal, thus maintaining moderate confidence still constrained by being priced-in and the statistical contra-direction. |
| 2026-08-03 | Bullish lean | 0.58 | Maintain a mild bullish stance on USO, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc #112: CFTC COT net long +92,943 contracts and significant backwardation in the near month compared to 12 months indicating relative tightness at the front end, supporting favorable basis/roll yields. Arc #268 provides additional geopolitical upside risk signals but is nascent, with both main arcs marked as price_in (price_in_excess has a flag) on their trading direction, suggesting that some of the upward movement may already be priced in and thus requiring a reduction in confidence. Overall, multiple arcs moving in the same direction reinforce the directional judgment, but given the presence of priced-in factors and individual evidence (arc #112's excess_sigma going against this), maintain a mild bullish stance with caution. |
| 2026-08-02 | Bullish lean | 0.56 | Maintain a bullish stance on USO, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc #112: CFTC COT net longs of +92,943 contracts and significant backwardation between WTI near-month and 12-month futures indicating front-end tightness, supporting rolling yields and medium-term bullishness. Arc #268 provides support for new short-term geopolitical risk nodes but is nascent with its price_in_excess marked at +14.62%, suggesting that some upward movement has already been priced in and limiting confidence enhancement. Overall, while multiple arcs point in the same direction, some signals are either priced in or in a decaying/non-confirmed state, hence maintaining a |
| 2026-08-01 | Bullish lean | 0.55 | The non-price evidence centered around Arc#112 (clear backwardation between WTI near-month and 12 months; CFTC COT showing net long +63,979 for crude) still supports a bullish bias for USO over the next 1-3 months; the tight front-end snapshot from Arc#268 provides additional support. Note that excess_sigma for Arc#112 is negative and marked as price_in (some of the positive factors are already priced in), with COT showing a pullback since 6/30 and no significant strengthening in options/fund flows, which directly constrains confidence. Considering both non-price evidence and priced signals, maintain lean positive but confidence and caution against the risk of 'priced-in/price contradiction'. |
| 2026-07-31 | Bullish lean | 0.60 | 以弧#112 为主导的非价格证据支持对 USO 的中期偏多判断：美伊相关冲突与航道/供应干扰以及 OPEC+ 可能动作在近月造成实物/交割紧俏，已在期货曲线上体现为明显的 backwardation，且 CFTC COT 显示净多头（+63,979），这些是非价格的实质性传导链条。需要注意的是弧#112 与弧#268 都被标注为 price_in（部分利好已被市场计入），且弧#458 的不确定与近期期权 IV 与资金流向的弱化证据对多头构成限制，因此置信度被温和压制。 |
| 2026-07-30 | Bullish lean | 0.55 | Non-price evidence centered on arc#112 (US-Iran conflict) continues to support the intermediate-term bullish case: CFTC/COT reports show net longs at +63,979 contracts, and WTI near-month is significantly backwardated against 12 months, indicating front-end spot/delivery tightness. However, two weakening factors should be noted: arc#112's excess_sigma is negative and the event is marked as price_in (indicating that some of the positive impact has already been priced in), and China’s securing for its own oil tankers reduces the scope of the impact; while arc#268 also supports front-end tightness, it too is marked as price_in and nascent. Therefore, maintain a lean_positive stance on USO (1-3 months) but with reduced confidence due to some positive factors already being reflected in the market and a weakening intensity of the event (approximately 0.55). |
| 2026-07-29 | Bullish lean | 0.58 | 以弧#112 的最新冲突升级事件为核心的非价格链条（伊朗对美军基地导弹攻击 → 航运/交割风险上升）以及 WTI 前端明显的 backwardation 和 CFTC COT 的净多头头寸，仍构成对 USO 中期偏多的主要非价格支撑。弧#268 提供相同方向的补充证据（前端紧俏），但为 nascent 且影响力较小。需要注意的是，市场已部分反映该行情（price_in=True），且弧#112 的 excess_sigma 为负且期权/资金流向显示保护需求下降，这些量化信号与新闻驱动不完全一致，因此对多头置信度予以适度压低至 0.58。 |
| 2026-07-28 | Bullish lean | 0.60 | Based on the three arcs, we maintain a positive lean for USO. The main non-price driver comes from Arc #458 (Houthi/Red Sea attack): the near-month futures curve is notably backwardated with a curve roll percentage of -12.789%, and CFTC speculative net positions are significantly bearish (-24,220), providing physical and position evidence for an upward push on near-month risk premiums due to maritime disruptions; Arc #112 also supports shipping interruptions and front-end backwardation. Risk and confidence adjustments: Arcs #268 and #112 have a price_in tag (part of the expected impact has already been priced in), so we moderately lower confidence but still maintain a positive stance. |
| 2026-07-27 | Bullish lean | 0.58 | Maintain a bullish bias for USO over the next 1-3 months: The non-price evidence provided by Arc#458 (Houthi/Red Sea attack) and Arc#268 (Taiwan Strait tension) is most influential — both correspond to a clear front-end tightness in the near-month futures curve (curve_roll_pct ≈ -12.8% / -10.0%), and CFTC/COT reports show net short positions from speculators (Arc#458 COT=-24,220; Arc#112/268 also showed net shorts), forming a path for short covering and an increase in near-month risk premium. It is important to note that Arc#112 has been marked as decaying with weakened news strength (excess_sigma=-0.20), and Arc#268 and Arc#112 are labeled price_in (part of the gains have already been reflected in prices), thus limiting the upward bias to “lean” rather than a high-confidence bet. |
| 2026-07-26 | Bullish lean | 0.57 | Maintain a bullish stance on USO for 1-3 months. The rationale is based on non-price evidence from Arc #268 (Taiwan Strait tensions) and Arc #458 (Houthi/Red Sea attacks): both indicate a clear backwardation in the near-month futures curve (curve_roll_pct around -10% to -12%) and CFTC/COT net positions are bearish, which substantiates a potential cover of shorts and an increase in near-month risk premium; the rise in IV/skew on the options side also supports this tight risk premium. The confidence level is lowered due to both arcs being nascent states, with Arc #268 marked as price_in_excess=True (some gains are already factored in), thus providing a moderate-low confidence rating. |