SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Neutral Confidence 0.30 Regime Low-vol · at high
Maintain neutral. Driver Arc 468 (US Household Credit/Overdue Stress) remains nascent and contested: non-price evidence offsets each other – CFTC shows extreme net shorts in the 2Y contract (indicating upward risk to short-end rates), but fund flows indicate short-end safe-haven demand (+3.22% AUM for 30d+), and no clear quantifiable default evidence such as overdues/charge-offs supports a one-sided view. With days_since_event=20 and strengthen_streak=0, support signals are outdated; it is not advisable to establish a long-term one-sided position in the current risk environment (rates_inflation_risk_off).
30-day verdict history
| Date | Direction | Confidence | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Neutral | 0.30 | Maintain neutral. Driver Arc 468 (US Household Credit/Overdue Stress) remains nascent and contested: non-price evidence offsets each other – CFTC shows extreme net shorts in the 2Y contract (indicating upward risk to short-end rates), but fund flows indicate short-end safe-haven demand (+3.22% AUM for 30d+), and no clear quantifiable default evidence such as overdues/charge-offs supports a one-sided view. With days_since_event=20 and strengthen_streak=0, support signals are outdated; it is not advisable to establish a long-term one-sided position in the current risk environment (rates_inflation_risk_off). |
| 2026-10-21 | Neutral | 0.32 | Maintain neutral. Drive Arc 468 (US Household Credit/Overdue Stress) is mixed on non-price evidence: CFTC shows extreme net shorts in the 2Y contract (implying potential support for front-end unwind/short-term rate downside), but UK gilt borrowing costs at record highs and elevated short-term rates pose an upward repricing risk, creating opposite pressure on SHY. The arc is nascent with days_since_event=25 and strengthen_streak=0 (support signals are outdated), thus confidence is limited, and we do not recommend establishing one-sided long-term positions. |
| 2026-10-20 | Neutral | 0.36 | Maintain neutral. Arc 468 (US Household Credit/Overdue Stress) is mixed on non-price evidence: on one hand, CFTC shows 2Y net positions are extremely bearish and there has been net inflows into SHY over the past 30 days (supporting short-end risk aversion); on the other hand, short-term yields remain high with a hawkish repricing risk (putting pressure on SHY). The arc remains nascent with days_since_event=18 and strengthen_streak=0 (old support signals), thus confidence is not increased and a low-confidence neutral stance is maintained. |
| 2026-10-19 | Neutral | 0.35 | 维持中性。驱动弧 468（美国家庭信贷/逾期压力）在非价格证据上相互冲突：CFTC 显示 2 年期净持仓极度偏空且近 30 日 SHY 净申购流入，这些定位和资金流倾向支持短端避险；但同时近期 PPI 偏热与短端收益率上行对 SHY 形成实质性利率压力。该弧为 nascent 且 days_since_event=23 且 strengthen_streak=0（信号陈旧未被确认），加上当前为 rates_inflation_risk_off 的宏观背景，因此不宜提高置信度，保持低置信度中性立场。 |
| 2026-10-18 | Neutral | 0.30 | Maintain neutral. Drive Arc 468 (US Household Credit/Overdue Stress) provides mixed non-price evidence: on one hand, CFTC shows extremely bearish 2-year net positions and recent 30-day SHY net buys suggest support for short-term Treasuries in a risk-off scenario; on the other hand, rising front-end yields and recent hot PPI/retail data create substantive upward pressure on rates, which inhibits SHY from a fundamental perspective. The arc has been active for 16 days (>14) with strengthen_streak=0, supporting it as an outdated signal; coupled with the current macro REGIME of risk/inflation divergence, a low-confidence neutral stance is warranted. |
| 2026-10-17 | Neutral | 0.00 | No active arcs provided direction (all closed/contested or no arc coverage). |
| 2026-10-16 | Mixed | 0.36 | The previously supportive arc 197 (short-end demand/redemption evidence) has been marked as closed/excluded, hence the change in direction. The current dominant arc 468 provides conflicting signals: non-price evidence suggests an increase in short-end bets (CFTC 2Y net short -1,257,484) and recent macro indicators (PPI, retail) are slightly overheated, implying upward pressure on short-end yields; meanwhile, physical/ETF net redemptions continue to support short-end supply/demand dynamics. These offsetting non-price signals make it inappropriate to make a clear one-sided judgment on SHY, so we maintain a mixed watchful stance. |
| 2026-10-15 | Bullish lean | 0.28 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY, primarily based on the true net inflows of redemptions and subscriptions (net inflows for the past 5/30 days) reported in arcs 197 and 468, which provide non-price demand support for short-term Treasury bonds. Contrary non-price evidence also exists: the CFTC 2Y speculative net short position (-1,257,484) in arc 197, along with a decline in bond market volatility (MOVE), and prices already reflecting some excess returns, which logically offset each other; arc 197 is marked as decaying, while arc 468 is nascent, and there are no direct quantitative default/overdue metrics to confirm. Therefore, maintain a bullish stance but with low confidence, awaiting clear non-price confirmation signals within the arc (such as 2Y position unwinding or explicit default/overdue indicators) for actionable entry. |
| 2026-10-14 | Bullish lean | 0.30 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY, based on the true net inflows of redemptions for arcs 197 and 468 reports (positive in the past 5 days/30 days), which provide non-price evidence supporting baseline demand for short-term Treasury bonds. The relative non-price counter-evidence comes from the CFTC 2Y speculative net shorts reported in arc 197 and the decline in bond market volatility (MOVE), with some excess returns already reflected by the market, thus limiting confidence. Considering that arc 197 is marked as decaying and both arguments remain contested, we maintain a bullish stance but with slightly lower confidence than previously. |
| 2026-10-13 | Bullish lean | 0.34 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY, primarily based on non-price quantitative evidence: arc 197 (us_debt_crisis) and arc 468 (consumer_credit_delinquency_us) both report sustained net redemptions in positive territory for the past 5 days and 30 days, which constitute baseline demand support for short-term Treasury bonds. Counter-evidence includes a large net short position by CFTC on 2Y futures and declining bond market volatility (MOVE down), as well as partial price reflection of relative returns, which offset each other to limit confidence. The arc 557 that played the main role in our previous conclusion has been excluded, hence the confidence is slightly reduced but the direction remains unchanged. Note: The argument hinges on redemption/holding signals and non-price indicators rather than recent price momentum alone. |
| 2026-10-12 | Bullish lean | 0.38 | Maintain a positive lean on SHY. Mainly driven by non-price evidence from arc 557: substantial net subscriptions (≈+$454M, 30-day net inflow ≈+3.0% AUM) starting from 2026-10-02 indicate that short-duration risk/bond allocation still has support in terms of liquidity; the quantitative evidence from arc 197 (CFTC 2-year significant net shorts) is offset by subscription inflows and a decline in MOVE, suggesting that panic buying in the bond market has weakened. Therefore, the signal is positive but not certain. Additionally, arc 468 (US household credit stress) remains in an early/uncorroborated channel, with prices partially reflected, so maintain a positive stance but with limited confidence and vigilance towards counter-evidence from CFTC/futures. |
| 2026-10-11 | Bullish lean | 0.45 | Maintain a bullish view on SHY, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 557 (Canada Household Credit Delinquency Stress): since October 2, 2026, SHY has seen substantial net inflows (approximately +$454M, corresponding to a 5-day/30-day inflow rate of +1.69% / +3.0% AUM), directly quantifying the transmission of demand for short-duration safe-haven/bond instruments. The signal is showing signs of decay (state=decaying, days_since_event≈12.8, strengthen_streak=1), and arc's own quantitative metrics indicate a significant net short position in CFTC 2-year futures (-1,257,484), which serves as a clear counter-argument and limits confidence; price_in is marked as False, indicating that the inflows have not been fully priced in. |
| 2026-10-10 | Bullish lean | 0.72 | Remain bullish on SHY. Mainly driven by non-price evidence from arc 197 (US Debt Crisis): CFTC 2Y net positions have significantly recovered from extreme net shorts (~-1,165,980, weekly sequential cover), and recent ETF net inflows continue (approximately +$414M since 2026-10-01, 30-day AUM up 2.22%), indicating tangible demand/flight-to-quality buying in short-term bonds. Arcs 468 and 557, although trending similarly, are attenuated signals (with days_since_event being large and strengthen_streak low/unstable), thus slightly limiting confidence; price_in is marked as False, suggesting that this direction has not yet been fully priced in. |
| 2026-10-09 | Bullish lean | 0.75 | Remain bullish on SHY. Mainly driven by non-price evidence from arc 197 (US Debt Crisis): CFTC 2Y net shorts have retreated from extremes (recent weekly +14%, net position -1,165,980) and ETF net inflows persist (recent days ≈+$414M, +1.55% AUM), indicating tangible short-end demand/flight-to-quality buying; meanwhile, implied Fed-funds pricing and MOVE cooling show no new upward pressure. Arc 468 and arc 557 also provide supportive signals in the same direction (coordinated with liquidity flows and COT), but are attenuated signals (days_since_event is large), thus enhancing confidence but not fully covering all remaining risks; price_in marked as False indicates that this bias has not yet been fully absorbed by prices. Based on these specific positions and funding evidence, maintain a bullish stance and increase confidence. |
| 2026-10-08 | Bullish lean | 0.70 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY. Mainly driven by arc 197 (US Debt Crisis): its non-price evidence shows a significant reduction in CFTC 2Y net shorts (net position -1,165,980, weekly change +14%), with ongoing net inflows to the near-month ETF (30-day value ~+2% AUM), and price_in marked as False, indicating that short-term demand and risk-on buying still have solid support. Arc 468 and arc 557 move in the same direction but are attenuated signals (days_since_event approximately 12 and 9.8 respectively, with confidence declining), thus the overall synthesis remains bullish with medium to high confidence level. |
| 2026-10-07 | Bullish lean | 0.66 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY. Mainly driven by the latest arc 197 (US Debt Crisis): its non-price evidence shows a reduction in CFTC 2y net shorts, net subscriptions to short-end funds starting from 2026-09-29 and continuous inflows, with implied Fed-path and MOVE index supporting a decline in short-term interest rate risk premium, which is fundamentally beneficial for short-duration treasuries. Arcs 468 and 557 show a similar trend but have a decaying characteristic (need to continue monitoring NFP and household credit indicators), and COT still shows residual large net shorts, indicating caution; the price has not yet been marked as fully factored in (price_in unmarked), so maintain a bullish stance with moderate confidence. |
| 2026-10-06 | Bullish lean | 0.54 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY. Mainly supported by arc 557 (Canadian household payment stress leading to funds flowing into short-duration assets: SHY net inflow of +$470M, 30-day AUM up 1.77%) and arc 468 (US short-end implied Fed path still around 3.9%, recent weak NFP signals indicating relative defensive/configurational demand for the short end); arc 197 (US debt/uncertainty) serves as counter-evidence (COT shows significant net short positions in 2y, elevated IV) which lowers confidence. Given that most arcs are decaying (signals not fresh) and there is no single actionable recent catalyst, maintain a bullish stance but with moderately low confidence. |
| 2026-10-05 | Bullish lean | 0.56 | Maintain a bullish view on SHY. The primary driver comes from arc 468 (US consumer/household credit): its non-price evidence—implied Fed funds rate path in the market is still around 3.9% (indicating short-end rate cut expectations/term premium decline), weaker-than-expected recent NFP, and net subscriptions to short-duration—supports an increase in short-duration risk aversion/configurational demand; arc 557 (BoC report) provides additional policy/evidentiary support for short-duration preferences. However, it is cautious given that arc 468 is somewhat outdated (days_since_event=9), and the high net shorts in futures COT and elevated option IV in arcs 197/557 provide conflicting evidence, thus maintaining a moderate to low level of confidence. |
| 2026-10-04 | Bullish lean | 0.58 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY. The primary driver remains arc 468 (US consumer/household credit): its non-price evidence—market-implied Fed funds rate trending down (≈3.88–3.94%), weaker-than-expected recent NFPs, and net inflows into SHY—supports rising demand for short-duration risk/asset allocation; arc 557 (BoC report) also provides additional policy/evidence-based preference for short-duration assets. Contrary evidence includes significant net shorts in the futures end of COT reports for 2y and elevated option IV from arcs 197/557, but these counterarguments have weakened or partially retreated in this cycle; additionally, note that arc 468 is slightly stale (days_since_event=8), so confidence is moderate to low. The price has not been marked as fully |
| 2026-10-03 | Bullish lean | 0.63 | Maintain a positive view on SHY, with the main driver coming from non-price evidence provided by arc 468 (US consumer/household credit): market-implied Federal funds path biased lower (~3.88%), recent NFP weaker than expected (+29k), and net inflows of approximately +1.2% AUM for SHY, supporting an increase in short-duration allocation demand. Counter-evidence from arc 197/557 (significant net short position by futures COT on 2y and policy hints of household payment pressures in Canada indicating a recession or weakening) is already in place, and the rise in UK gilt rates represents an exogenous upward risk; thus, I maintain confidence at a moderate high level but have slightly reduced it from last time; pricing has not yet been labeled as fully 'priced-in'. |
| 2026-10-02 | Bullish lean | 0.70 | Continue to be bullish on SHY for the 1-3 month horizon. Mainly due to non-price evidence from arc 468: CFTC extreme net short position in 2y (-1,350,740 contracts), recent net inflows into SHY (30-day +1.36% AUM), and Freddie Mac reports showing mortgage rates breaking above 7%, which collectively support an increase in short-duration risk/asset allocation demand and make the arc operable and recently confirmed. Contrary evidence comes from arc 197 (rising implied volatility in options and speculative bets on short-term rate increases), but prices and flows have not yet been systematically liquidated; support for arc 557 is waning, thus overall remains bullish and not fully |
| 2026-10-01 | Bullish lean | 0.64 | Continue to maintain a slightly bullish bias towards SHY, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 468: extreme net short positions (CFTC -1,350,740) for 2-year futures and the market's implied higher Fed-funds rate path, as well as ongoing net subscriptions to SHY (+2.82% AUM over 30 days), indicating continued support for short-duration demand from both allocation and position sides. Contrary evidence comes from arc 197 (similar CFTC net shorts with elevated IV signaling risks of upward pressure on short-end rates), but these non-price risk signals have not yet been systematically cleared by prices or funding conditions; the argument in arc 557 has weakened. Given that the strongest curve (arc 468) is operational and recently confirmed within a timeframe of ≤7 days, and price_in has not been marked as fully factored in, maintain a lean positive stance while carefully monitoring opposing CFTC/IV signals. |
| 2026-09-30 | Bullish lean | 0.66 | Maintain a positive bias towards SHY. Mainly driven by non-price evidence from arc 468: an implied increase in the Fed-funds rate path (≈4.055%), and CFTC 2y position signals with recent net inflows of +2.37% AUM indicating a shift to positive short-duration positioning, which supports SHY. Be cautious of the opposing non-price signal from arc 197—extreme net shorts in CFTC 2y and rising implied volatility through options, which could suppress SHY if short-term interest rates continue to rise; this upward risk has not yet been fully realized on the price front (price_in unmarked). Given the actionable and recently confirmed evidence from arc 468 along with the contentious or diminishing status of other arcs, maintain a lean positive stance while monitoring subsequent evidence from arc 197. |
| 2026-09-29 | Bullish lean | 0.72 | Maintain a positive lean on SHY, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 468: the market-implied Fed-funds rate of around 4.055% aligns with recent net inflows into SHY (30-day +2.37% AUM), indicating a shift towards positive duration positioning and supporting demand for short-duration bonds. However, a counter-risk stems from arc 197 (and its reflection of CFTC 2y extreme net shorts): there is a crowded position on rising short-term rates among speculators, which could lead to SHY's short-term volatility if there is a rapid rate decline or unwind of positions. Given that arc 468 is actionable and recently confirmed, while other arcs are diminishing or controversial, maintain a moderately positive stance while being vigilant about these position/interest rate reversal risks. |
| 2026-09-27 | Bullish lean | 0.68 | Maintain a lean positive bias towards SHY. The primary driver comes from non-price evidence of arc 468 (consumer_credit_delinquency_us): net subscriptions to SHY of +$276M since September 18, 2026, and a 30-day cumulative inflow of 2.77% AUM, along with the market-implied Fed-funds rate (~4.035%), indicating substantial buy-side preference for short-duration exposure. Counter-risks stem from arc 197 (us_debt_crisis) showing extreme net shorts by CFTC on 2-year contracts (-1,350,740 positions), which may indicate upward pressure on short-end yields and downward pressure on SHY. However, this arc is in a declining state and its expectations do not align with funding flows (subscription inflows). Therefore, maintain a moderately high confidence level for the bullish bias; evidence from arc 557 is outdated and carries limited weight. |
| 2026-09-26 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | Tending towards a bullish stance on SHY (lean_positive), as the latest and actionable arc468 (consumer_credit_delinquency_us) provides clear non-price evidence: net subscriptions to SHY of +$276M since 2026-09-18, with a 30-day cumulative inflow of +2.77% AUM, and the excess_sigma of arc468 along with days_since_event=0 indicating actual buying pressure at the allocation level, positioning SHY as a short-duration yield/liquidity alternative. Strong contrarian signals from the hedging/speculative end come from arc197 (CFTC 2y net positions ≈ -1.35M contracts), pointing to upward movement in short-end yields and posing downside risks, thus limiting overall confidence and cautioning against a rising rate scenario. Arc557 evidence is outdated and carries less weight, serving as a secondary reference factor. |
| 2026-09-25 | Neutral | 0.36 | Maintain neutral. The driving non-price evidence from Arc197 indicates extreme net shorts (≈-1,294,575 contracts) on the 2y contract pointing to upward pressure on short-end yields and downward pressure on SHY, but this position signal is offset by independent non-price evidence – net inflows of new purchases over the past 30 days ≈+3–4% AUM, normal demand at Treasury auctions (bid-to-cover ≈2.4), an implied Fed path ≈4.0%, and no confirmation from price action (price_in_excess is positive). Arc557 represents a more outdated/early argument of |
| 2026-09-24 | Neutral | 0.36 | Maintain a neutral stance. The driving non-price evidence from Arc 197 shows an extreme net short position of approximately -1,294,575 contracts on the 2y futures by CFTC, indicating upward pressure on short-term interest rates and downward pressure on SHY; however, this strong position signal is offset by independent non-price evidence (30-day net redemption inflows ≈+4% AUM, normal bid-to-cover for Treasury auctions ≈2.41, implied Fed path ≈4.0%) and the price end does not confirm it (price_in_excess is positive), thus the evidence pulls in opposite directions. Arc 557 (Canadian household credit stress) is an outdated nascent argument that is also offset by COT positions; hence, the overall stance remains neutral with low confidence. |
| 2026-09-23 | Neutral | 0.36 | 维持中性。驱动性的非价格证据来自弧197：CFTC 在 2y 合约上的极端净空（≈-1.29M 手）指向短端利率上行、对 SHY 构成下行压力，但这一强烈非价格信号已被独立非价格证据（30 日净申赎流入≈+4% AUM、国债拍卖需求正常、隐含 Fed-path ≈4.0%、MOVE 低位）以及价格端未确认的事实所抵消。弧557 提供的“加拿大家庭信用压力→短端避险”理由存在但已较为陈旧（days_since_event=27）且其影响部分在申赎/相对表现中被体现，因而权重有限，故综合仍为中性立场。 |
| 2026-09-21 | Neutral | 0.34 | Maintain neutral. The driving non-price evidence comes from arc 197: the extreme net short position (≈-1.29M contracts, continuously increasing over the past four periods) on the 2y contract with CFTC is an important non-price signal for upward pressure on short-term interest rates and downward pressure on SHY. However, this signal does not align with independent evidence such as inflows, Treasury auctions/liquidity, and implied Fed path. Arc 557 is relatively outdated (days_since_event>14) and its |